INDIANAPOLIS — While COVID-19 is still wrecking havoc on this planet of ours, a lot of countries are now dealing with ways on how to reopen their economies. Yes, coronavirus cases have certainly slowed in parts of the world, including the United States, but a return to normalcy isn’t likely going to happen any time soon.

In order to start opening up economies, we’re going to have to phase our way into it. That means social distancing and staying away from large gatherings. So, how does this affect the sporting world?

It has a large impact in fact. While a lot of states here in the USA have said that they’d welcome a return to sports and would even allow their states to host sporting events again, there’s one caveat — they’d have to do so without fans in attendance.

So, in order for a sporting league to return to action, they’d have to do so in empty venues. That affects the bottom dollar of everyone included. Some sports can’t make that work. They need fans coming through the gates to make a profit. One sport that can make it work though is racing.

See, NASCAR is at the forefront of this because their race tracks make money based off the lucrative TV package. Back in 2013, NASCAR signed a 10-year, $8.2 billion TV deal with NBC Sports/Fox Sports for exclusive rights to air their events. That equates out to roughly $800 million per season in TV revenue to NASCAR. In turn, NASCAR shares a large piece of that pie to the race teams as well as the race tracks. So, even if no fans show up to a NASCAR race, the race tracks and race teams are making millions.

All they need is the green light to get going, which they got and states willing to host, which they did.

For other series’ they don’t have that luxury of a big TV contract. IndyCar shares a network with NASCAR (NBC Sports) and some tracks too, but they don’t have a large enough contract with NBC Sports to share their TV revenue with the venues that host them. In turn, IndyCar requires race tracks to pay a sanctioning fee in order for them to come. So, if a race track can’t get any money from fans coming through the gates and don’t receive any TV money, how can they pay for a race to still be held?

That’s why NASCAR is coming back next Sunday and IndyCar not until June 6 at the Texas Motor Speedway. IndyCar and TMS worked together to take monetary hits on both sides in order to make it work.

So, we get two leagues back, what about others? It’s hard for stick and ball sports to get going because of travel and playing several different host cities. It’s hard to quarantine every player. It’s hard to compete with there being two teams sharing one ball. Stick and ball sports have human to human contact all throughout a game. Racing, well they don’t.

That’s why racing is leading the charge on this, but even saying that, fans can’t expect to attend any races any time soon.

Just look at the signs coming.

No fans can watch any of NASCAR’s races this month, or now next month even. NASCAR has now released nine Cup races between this Sunday and June 21, all are one-day shows, most within driving distances to Charlotte and all without race fans. So, the soonest we could see fans in a NASCAR race is June 27 or 28, but even that is a stretch.

For IndyCar, their next race after Texas is June 21 in Road America. That track is in Wisconsin and while a race there is closer to the team shops than Texas is, the state issued their reopening plan dubbed the “Badger Bounce Back Plan” towards the end of last month. While the Supreme Court has opened the state back up, I highly doubt Wisconsin will remain open this time next month. If the revert back to the plan, then their second phase could potentially allow for the race on June 21 to go on, but that phase also says to have a max of 50 people in one gathering. That eliminates any fans from attending that race unless they can get to phase three which has no limit on the amount of people in a social gathering. It could be possible that Wisconsin gets there in June, but I just don’t see how they are going to speed through the first two phases in a little over a month’s time.

Now, we know that IndyCar and Texas had to work out some kind of deal to cut the sanctioning fee in some capacity, will the series do that with Road America too? I mean, you have to think about it, the race tracks aren’t receiving any money from IndyCar in terms of the TV package. Texas isn’t and there’s a good possibility Road America won’t have fans either, so the biggest revenue gaining stream for race tracks in allowing fans to come is now not an option. So, how do the tracks get any money when they have to fork out a 6-7 figure sanctioning fee to host an Indy Car race? There’s some tracks where even a decrease in the sanctioning fee isn’t going to work.

From there, it’s supposed to be to Richmond to close out the month of June, but there’s really no way that the return to the Virginia short track happens.

Virginia’s governor laid out his plan to phasing the state back to a somewhat new normal too. His plan would keep fans away from their race tracks until the third phase which is an expected “10-12 weeks away, or more.” That would make the soonest a return for fans could be in attendance being July 13.

IndyCar races there on June 27. The second phase is for no social gatherings of more than 50 people. That eliminates fans for Richmond and with a vague description of the second phase, may even eliminate the series coming to Virginia during the month of June in general too since NASCAR has already eliminated that spring race.

So, that takes us to July, which all signs are pointing to the GMR Grand Prix at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway not only being able to continue on it’s new Fourth of July date, but for also having fans in attendance as well.

Last Friday, the Hoosier State announced that they are going to start opening back up and have a five phase plan. The last two phases will allow for larger crowds and the return to sports inside of the state.

Stage 4 – June 14

Marion, Lake and Cass counties will continue on their delayed timeline.

More businesses will be able to open and larger gathering will now be allowed.

• Social gatherings up to 250 people
• Retails stores and malls at full capacity
• Dining room services to 75 percent capacity
• Bars and nightclubs can open at 50 percent capacity

• Cultural entertainment and tourism can open at 50 percent capacity (Including zoos, museums, etc.)
• Sports venues and amusement parks at 50 percent capacity

The last stage of this would start on July 4 and that’s will be to open all sports venues and other large facilities.

Stage 5 – July 4

Marion, Lake and Cass counties will continue on their delayed timeline.

The state will begin to open sports venues and other large facilities.

• Fairs and festivals will be allowed.
• Retail and restaurants can function at full capacity.
• Restrictions will be lifted at amusement parks, water parks, etc.

During stage 5, state officials will look at how to approach and handle the new school year.

While social distancing will likely still be recommended on July 4, IMS has plenty of ground available inside of their massive facility to spread out 70-80k in attendance. Even that figure is going to be high for that weekend, so July appears to be the best case plan for fans to see an IndyCar race live and in person. In turn, that’s a shared weekend with NASCAR which makes sense to have the Fourth of July serve as the first race weekend back with fans in place.

After Indy is then to Toronto, but that race is going to be a tough one. The USA-Canada border is closed, so how can teams get across it to race? Plus, Toronto says that not until June 29 can they even entertain sporting events — albeit behind closed door then too. It wouldn’t be until Aug. 10 to when fans could attend sporting events in the city and even then they’d have to social distance. The race is set for July 12. Plus, with all of the social distancing measures, how can they build a race track from scratch without being around a bunch of workers? Either way, if they can run the race, it won’t be with fans in attendance.

An Iowa doubleheader would be on tap next and as we sit here today, the state is welcoming sporting events but they can’t be held with fans in attendance. The race is still more than two months away, so that could change between now and then meaning Iowa could be a destination fans can watch the race at, especially with it being in a rural part of the state.

That takes us to August where it’s way too far out to determine what COVID-19 will look like and what kind of limits we will have by then. Ohio (Mid-Ohio), Indiana (Indianapolis Motor Speedway) and Illinois/Missouri (Gateway) are the three states with Indy Car races in them during that month. If all trends the way it has been, all three races could be run with fans at them.

Now, you have to factor in IMSA. They won’t race until the final weekend of June at the very earliest. For NHRA, they backed that resumption of their schedule to August. That just leaves Formula One.

We know F1 will start in Europe. That will take place in July-August. There’s eight races that fall under that category with one of which being unlikely. Azerbaijan is a street course and will be hard to reschedule. Three of the five IndyCar races that are canceled for 2020 are on street courses. Two of the three in F1 that are canceled are street venues too.

So, that means seven races left for Europe, but I don’t see any having fans in attendance at them. Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Belgium would be eligible to host races. Belgium has a ban on mass gatherings through Aug. 31. Hungary’s ban is through Aug. 15. That means neither can host a race with fans. Spain and Italy were two of the hardest hit countries in the world. Austria and England have already said that no fans will be in attendance at their races. That means the Dutch Grand Prix would be the only race with a potential for fans, but knowing what we do now, why would they be the lone ones?

So, that moves the first race available for fans to attend an F1 race would be September at the very earliest, but still, that would be tough. That’s the point the season moves to Asia which have five races there. Russia, still has rising cases, Japan postponed the Olympics until next year, China is where this virus originated, Singapore is a street race and Vietnam are the eligible races to be scheduled in Asia. What about those situations makes you think that they can race with fans by the Fall?

I can see Singapore joining the canceled race with China likely following. That leaves three Asia races in September with it being tough to see any of them hosting fans.

Then, it’s to this hemisphere in October. Canada is a partial street race and has a ban of mass gatherings into the fall. It’s going to be pretty chilly that time of year in Montreal, so they could too join a list of canceled races this year. The United States could host a race with fans in October, but would the US want fans from all over the globe to come to Texas with a potential for further spread? That race has a sanctioning fee of around $25 million. If no fans can attend, or even a fraction of fans, COTA would have a hard time hosting that race. Mexico and Brazil are the two most likely countries to host F1 this Fall over on this side of the world.

They then would finish in December in the Middle East.

As you can see, F1 can get going this season, but hosting fans will be as tough as ever.

So, while racing is definitely coming back and doing so in a much different capacity than before, we can’t expect to be in attendance at any of these races before July and even that may be a stretch.