TRACK: Darlington Raceway (1.366-mile Oval) DISTANCE: 293 Laps – STAGE 1 (Lap 90, STAGE 2 (95 Laps) LAPS, FINAL STAGE 108 LAPS (400.24 MILES)
WEATHER: RAIN 40% 89 degrees

All Eyes On NASCAR

NASCAR, the stage is yours. Sunday can potentially be a huge shift to bring NASCAR back into a mainstream boom. See, in the 1990s, NASCAR grew to become the second biggest sport in the United States. Unfortunately, all good things eventually come to an end. Over the last decade, NASCAR has seen their numbers fall in terms of most metrics. All that boom was gone. They lost their luster.

Luckily, the start of this season had started seeing a shift back up. All four races run before the COVID-19 pandemic saw upticks in ratings and attendance. It all started in Daytona which played for a sold out crowd, the largest attended season opener for the sport in many years. Among those there was President Donald Trump and his first lady.

The anticipation of a NASCAR race was really starting to come back. Then the coronavirus hit. On March 11, NBA player Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus. They suspended their league immediately. Over the next few days, all of the other sporting leagues around the world followed suit, including NASCAR.

Over the last 10 weeks, we’ve had no live sports –until now. NASCAR, is the first major sport back and will have the eyes of the world on them.

Everyone has been so starved for something live, something real, that whenever something does come back, they’re going to see the boom. The NFL Draft was a prime example.

Now, NASCAR has all the attention on Sunday afternoon and should see a big benefit in doing so.

Much Different Race Than Anything We’ve Ever Seen

While NASCAR is leading the charge back, they’re also going to be dong so in a different capacity too. What we witnessed the last time out (March 8) at the Phoenix Raceway, will not look remotely the same on Sunday afternoon.

First off, no fans are allowed to be at the track this weekend. The 47k seats around the South Carolina oval will be empty. The teams are capped at 16 people, including the driver, crew chief, spotter and others. We won’t show up on Thursday to unload, practice on Friday or qualify on Saturday. This is Sunday only with no on track activity in any shape of the imagination before the race. There won’t be a real victory lane celebration. It’s a one-day show of basically showing up, unloading your car and racing.

Qualifying will be determined by a draw.

Stage Points Going To Be Tough Sledding

We know stage points can make or break someone advancing to the playoffs or not. That’s been proven in the past. So, with knowing how important they are, scoring them on Sunday is going to be difficult.

Remember, there’s no practice or qualifying. You’re going to have to race what you brought. But, how hard to do you push early on? We know the cars aren’t going to be ideal at the start of Sunday’s race. The drivers haven’t raced in literally 70 days. The cars were prepared back at the shops without much input. Practice would have rectified this, but the first laps turned this weekend will be in race conditions.

So, if you push too hard early, trouble could find you. Remember, this track is nicknamed “Too Tough To Tame.” If you don’t push, you could get run over and not score any much needed stage points.

I don’t envy the drivers or crew chiefs at the start of Sunday’s race.

Pit Crew/Driver Combinations Going To Be Biggest Factor

To keep tying this all in together, the factors above will make things difficult on the teams and drivers. First off, the race car drivers haven’t been in a race car since March 8. Sunday, will be the first time in 70 days that they’ve done that. The teams, well they haven’t been able to work until the end of April. Plus, the shop crew can’t go to the track and the road crew, including the drivers, can’t go to the shop.

The first time anyone at Darlington would have seen this race car will be when it unloads. Then, they get no practice or qualifying to even see what they have. The drivers’ first laps will be around the toughest track on the circuit at speeds in excess of 180 mph.

How will the drivers be physically? How will the cars hold up?

We know adjustments are going to have to be made all day. That’s why the best driver-crew chief combinations are going to be the ones rising to the top by the end of 293 laps.

“We’ve been sitting outside of a race car for over two months and then we’re gonna barrel it down into Turn 1 at 200 mph with no practice,” Joey Logano said last week. “That’s going to be a puckered up moment.”

Last year’s Southern 500 pole sitter William Byron agrees.

“It’s going to be difficult,” Byron said of the situation. “I think the biggest thing is just trying to prepare yourself well physically. Obviously you’re not going to get that chance to really go through practice and kind of warm up your muscles, I guess you could say, to get ready in the car.”

“A lot of it’s going to fall on the teams and the cars who hits the setup right. It’s going to be big because there’s a lot of variables there. You’re not going to have a chance to set the height of the car, predict where the splitter is going to end up, where the back is going to travel to. As a driver all you can do is put consistent laps together. You have to be efficient in traffic at the start of the race. I do feel like there’s going to be some mistakes made, some bounces off the wall things like that. You have to avoid that in the first run or so. Then you’ll start to see who really has the car after that.”

With so many driver-crew chief changes this past off season and only having four races in 2020 to work together, who’s going to figure it out the quickest?

The Kyle Busch-Adam Stevens combo and Kevin Harvick-Rodney Childers combos have been together as long as anyone in the sport. They could reap the benefits of this.

Toyota’s Have Been Good At Darlington In The Past But Haven’t Had The Best Start To 2020 Season

If we base the favorites on Sunday off past Darlington history, then a no-brainer at the top of the list will be the Joe Gibbs Racing camp. Toyota has won three of the last four Southern 500’s with three different drivers (Truex Jr., Hamlin, Jones). The only one missing from that is Kyle Busch, but remember the point above?

Busch, has two top three finishes in his last three Darlington starts including a top seven finish in seven of his last eight starts at the Lady In Black. Furthermore, he’s had two straight top three finishes on the season. But, Busch would note that the top three’s have been a bit of good luck on his side too. The speed hasn’t been there in his No. 18 Toyota so far this season. The same can be said for his teammates too.

While Denny Hamlin won the season opening Daytona 500 and has a top 10 finish in eight of his last 10 Darlington starts, including five top four finishes in his last eight starts on the South Carolina oval, he’s only been 17th, sixth and 20th since his dramatic win in the season opener.

Martin Truex Jr’s best finish is 14th this season. He was 32nd in the first race (Daytona) and last race (Phoenix) of the year. He was 11th and 15th respectively in the last two Southern 500’s and has a new crew chief this year. His win in 2016 is his only top five on the 1.3 mile race track over his last seven starts there.

Then there’s Erik Jones. He’s in a contract year again and that scenario produced a win the last time out in Darlington. In fact, Jones has finished fifth (2017), eighth (2018) and first (2019) in three tries there. This season though, Jones sits 21st in the points with finishes of 18th, 23rd, 10th and 28th respectively.

So, while JGR won 19 of the 36 races a year ago, a Cup Series record, and went 1-2 in the Southern 500, I don’t necessarily expect they will dominate on Sunday afternoon.

Penske Combo’s New But They’ve Been Quick This Season 

If you remember way back to March, you would have seen that Ryan Blaney has had the quickest race car each race, Joey Logano has won half of the races run and Brad Keselowski has three finishes of 11th or better.

But, can that translate well over to Sunday?

Yes, the speed is there. Yes, the past history is there with Keselowski a winner of the Southern 500 in 2018 and Logano coming home second that year. Keselowski, has four top 10 finishes in his last five Darlington starts including three of which being in the top five. Logano, has three top fives in his last five Darlington tries too.

So, you may ask, what’s the issue?

New crew chiefs for all three drivers.

Back in January, Penske swapped the crew chief combos for all three teams. Logano, got Paul Wolfe, Keselowski got Jeremy Bullins and Blaney Todd Gordon. With only six races under their belts (Clash and Duels included) is that enough for these pairings to know what each other needs?

It takes time for crew chiefs and drivers for mesh and gel. I don’t know if they’ve had enough time yet to get these race cars dialed in for a full race. We know adjustments are going to have to be made. Do they know each other well enough yet to communicate those to one another?

Chip Ganassi Racing Has Been Strong At Darlington, But Don’t Expect Much From Kenseth Still

We know Kurt Busch is going to be a factor on Sunday. He and Matt McCall may have only been together for just over a year, but it’s been a good one. Busch, won last year in Kentucky and has been coming along this season as well. He finished third in Fontana and sixth at Phoenix. Also, Busch has three straight top seven finishes at Darlington including four in his last five.

His new teammate Matt Kenseth on paper should fare well too. The last time NASCAR came to Darlington during the month of May, Kenseth, 48, won. He has five top six finishes in his last seven Darlington starts overall.

Plus, his No. 42 Chevrolet that he’s driving this weekend has had a ton of success at Darlington in the past with Kyle Larson too. Larson, had five top 10 finishes in six Darlington starts including three top three finishes over his last four. He led 45, 124, 284 and 44 laps respectively in each of his last four starts there. On top of that, Larson had three top 10 finishes in this ride in four starts this season.

So, one would think Kenseth should hop in and be a contender right?

I honestly don’t think so. I’d be shocked if Kenseth ended up with a top 10 on Sunday in fact.

Kenseth, hasn’t race in NASCAR since 2018. He’s never drove this racing package before. He’s never raced a Chevrolet Cup car either. He’s never worked with Chad Johnston prior to Sunday. He has to do all of this with no practice either.

Harvick Will Lead SHR Contingent

Stewart-Haas Racing was one of those teams too with a big swing at crew chief changes. Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola swapped crew chiefs while Cole Custer moved up with his crew chief from the Xfinity Series to Cup.

Rookies haven’t fared well this season and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. Bowyer and Almirola have struggled out of the gates in 2020 too with Bowyer landing two finishes of 12th or worse and his season best result of fifth in Phoenix, the Kansas native said that they need way more speed.

Almirola, scored a pair of eighth place finishes over his last two races but was 22nd and 21st in the two races prior.

Bowyer, has one top 10 finish in his last 12 Darlington starts with his last three being 22nd, 40th and 36th. Almirola, has never scored a top 10 in eight Darlington tries with his last four finishes being 32nd, 20th, 14th and 17th.

Not a good trio for SHR to contend for a win with this weekend.

Despite that, Kevin Harvick may though. Since joining SHR in 2014, Harvick has been en fuego at Darlington. He’s never finished outside of the top 10 in six tries and has led 518 laps in those race. In 16 starts with RCR, he led a combined 63 laps on the same race track.

His only problem has been, he’s failed to lead a lap in each of the last two years and despite leading 518 laps in those other four races, he’s only won just once.

Harvick, does have a top 10 in all four races run this season and has had Rodney Childers on top of his pit box since 2014 too.

Betting Options

The top two cars in terms of race pace this season have been Ryan Blaney (+2500) and Alex Bomwan (+2000). Blaney, should have three top two finishes in four races run this season. A costly caution while leading at the end of the Vegas race  and a tire that went down while running second in the closing laps at Fontana, kept top two finishes from the Team Penske driver. The finishes right now say – 2nd, 11th, 19th and 37th but the ability and race car says a top two contender.

Bowman, likely had the second best race car before the COVID-19 hiatus. He, like Blaney, was hurt by that late race caution in Vegas. Bowman, then turned around and led 110 of 200 laps in Fontana en route to a victory. He has finishes of 24th, 13th, first and 11th through four races.

So, why the long odds then? Neither have had much success in the past on the “Lady in Black” is the reason why. In five career Darlington starts, Blaney’s finished 30th, 13th, 31st, 15th and 13th respectively. Bowman, has finished 23rd and 18th in his two starts there in the No. 88 Chevrolet at Hendrick Motorsports.

By comparison, Matt Kenseth has the same odds as Bowman and better odds than Blaney but yet he hasn’t raced in NASCAR since 2018. He’s also never ran this new racing package before, nor worked with his new crew chief Chad Johnson or has ever driven a Chevrolet in NASCAR before either. How does he have equal odds to Bowman and better than Blaney then?

For their odds, they’re worth a low risk bet this weekend because they do have speed this year and no one has any practice to catch them next weekend either.

On the far flip side of things, you get the Toyota camp who’s been stellar in recent years at Darlington but have also lacked speed on the 2020 season thus far. If we base the favorites next Sunday off past Darlington history, then a no-brainer at the top of the list will be the Joe Gibbs Racing camp. Toyota has won three of the last four Southern 500’s with three different drivers (Truex Jr., Hamlin, Jones). The only one missing from that is Kyle Busch.

Busch (+500), has two top three finishes in his last three Darlington starts including a top seven finish in seven of his last eight starts at the Lady In Black. He and Kevin Harvick (+500) are top of the odds list. Furthermore, he’s had two straight top three finishes on the season. But, Busch would note that the top three’s have been a bit of good luck on his side too. The speed hasn’t been there in his No. 18 Toyota so far this season. The same can be said for his teammates too.

While Denny Hamlin (+800) won the season opening Daytona 500 and has a top 10 finish in eight of his last 10 Darlington starts, including five top four finishes in his last eight starts on the South Carolina oval, he’s only been 17th, sixth and 20th since his dramatic win in the season opener.

Martin Truex Jr’s (+800) best finish is 14th this season. He was 32nd in the first race (Daytona) and last race (Phoenix) of the year. He was 11th and 15th respectively in the last two Southern 500’s and has a new crew chief this year. His win in 2016 is his only top five on the 1.3 mile race track over his last seven starts there.

Then there’s Erik Jones (+1400). He’s in a contract year again and that scenario produced a win the last time out in Darlington. In fact, Jones has finished fifth (2017), eighth (2018) and first (2019) in three tries there. This season though, Jones sits 21st in the points with finishes of 18th, 23rd, 10th and 28th respectively.

So, while JGR won 19 of the 36 races a year ago, a Cup Series record, and went 1-2 in the Southern 500, I don’t necessarily expect they will dominate on Sunday afternoon based off how the 2020 season has gone thus far.

Joey Logano (+700) and his teammate Brad Keselowski (+1000) to go along with Chase Elliott (+800) are the only other drivers under +2000 next weekend. Logano, has two wins in 2020 and the third best odds overall. He was also runner-up at Darlington in the 2018 Southern 500 and has three top five finishes in his last five starts there. Keselowski, won that race in 2018 and has four top 10 finishes, three of which being in the top five, in his last five Darlington starts. He’s been a solid top 10 or 11 car so far in 2020 too.

Elliott, has been really quick so far this year too but his finishes in the four races aren’t indicative on how much speed he really has. Elliott, won three of the first four stages in 2020 including having five top two finishes over the last six of them. He’s also led the most laps in two of the last three races. But, Elliott was involved in a crash at Daytona and had an issue during the end of the race in Vegas to go along with a loose wheel in Phoenix. The finishes were 17th, 26th and seventh respectively. In Darlington, he won an NXS race there to go along with scoring a fifth place run in 2018 and three top 11 finishes in his last four tries.

Out of all of them, I would have to still side with Harvick as the favorite overall, hence him being tied with Busch for the best odds. The only guy with a top 10 finish in all four races so far, has six straight top 10 finishes in Darlington including five of which inside of the top five. He led 63 total laps led with RCR but 518 in just six tries with SH including 238 in 2014 and 214 in 2016.

So, how about some of the longer shot guys?

Jimmie Johnson (+2000) doesn’t have recent stats at Darlington that are worth batting an eye at, but he is a past winner there. He’s also had a much better start to the season too. He looked stout in Daytona, was fifth in Vegas, seventh in Fontana and 12th in Phoenix. He looks like his 98 race winless drought is coming to an end soon as he has a ton of speed. Why not for these odds?

I also like Kurt Busch (+2000). He has three consecutive top seven finishes at Darlington to go along with four in the last five overall there. He was third two races ago in Fontana and sixth at Phoenix a week later. For those odds, go with Busch next weekend.

That’s really about it as far as who I’d look to. This race is going to come down to driver and crew chief communication on how to make the car better as the race goes on, so I don’t expect any of the rookies to contend, especially since they’re struggled out of the gates so far anyways. Neither Aric Almirola (+4000) or his teammate Clint Bowyer (+3300) have shown much speed yet either in 2020 and they struggle with Darlington. Almirola, has never scored a top 10 there in eight tries while Bowyer has just one top 10 in his last 12 Darlington starts with no career top fives to his credit on the egg shaped race track. Also, both swapped crew chiefs this past offseason, so they haven’t had much time to gel with them.

The safe picks are –

1. Harvick (+500)
2. KyBusch (+500)
3. Logano (+700)
4. Elliott (+800)

Sleepers

1. Jones (+1400)
2. KuBusch (+2000)

Low Risk Bets

1. Bowman +2000
2. Johnson +2000
3. Blaney +2500

Don’t Touch

1. Hamlin +800
2. Truex Jr. +800
3. Kenseth +2000
4. Bowyer +3300
5. Almirola +4000
6. Byron +4000
7. All rookies (Custer, Bell, Reddick, Nemechek)

Head to Head Matchup Of The Week

Martin Truex Jr. (-134) vs. Brad Keselowski (+100)

Truex, has had bad luck all season. While he’s had the fastest Toyota, his best finish is 14th in 2020. He was 32nd in the first race (Daytona) and last race (Phoenix) of the year. He was 11th and 15th respectively in the last two Southern 500’s and has a new crew chief this year. His win in 2016 is his only top five on the 1.3 mile race track over his last seven starts there.

Meanwhile, Keselowski won in Darlington in 2018 and has four top 10 finishes, three of which being in the top five, in his last five Darlington starts. He’s been a solid top 10 or 11 car so far in 2020 too.

Keselowski, has finished ahead of Truex in three of the last five Cup races at Darlington, including two in-a-row as well as three of the four races run in 2020, including three in-a-row.

Pick: Keselowski (+100)