Next Sunday, major sports returns. Following a 70 day hiatus, the NASCAR Cup Series will resume their season. It will mark their first race since March 8. They’ll do so at the Darlington Raceway. See, this and the following Wednesday night’s race on the same 1.3-mile South Carolina oval, were newly added to the revised schedule. That’s because NASCAR wanted to kick their season back into gear, but in order to safely do so, they needed to hold races within a close radius to their headquarters in Charlotte. See, a majority of their teams are based in the greater Charlotte area too. So, being able to do one-day shows is their best option of preventing the spread of COVID-19 further.

Also is this — no practice or qualifying will take place either. That won’t happen for the first two races back and three of the opening four overall. That makes these events somewhat hard to handicap because there’s no preparation and the first two races are on arguably the hardest track to navigate on the schedule. After all, they don’t call Darlington “Too Tough To Tame” for nothing.

So, the best way to figure out who to pick next weekend or not, well that’s going to come down to who has speed this season and who’s had speed in the past at Darlington. Lucky for us, the top cars in terms of raw speed in 2020 are both 20/1 or worse in terms of their odds next weekend.

The top two cars in terms of race pace this season have been Ryan Blaney (+2500) and Alex Bomwan (+2000). Blaney, should have three top two finishes in four races run this season. A costly caution while leading at the end of the Vegas race  and a tire that went down while running second in the closing laps at Fontana, kept top two finishes from the Team Penske driver. The finishes right now say – 2nd, 11th, 19th and 37th but the ability and race car says a top two contender.

Bowman, likely had the second best race car before the COVID-19 hiatus. He, like Blaney, was hurt by that late race caution in Vegas. Bowman, then turned around and led 110 of 200 laps in Fontana en route to a victory. He has finishes of 24th, 13th, first and 11th through four races.

So, why the long odds then? Neither have had much success in the past on the “Lady in Black” is the reason why. In five career Darlington starts, Blaney’s finished 30th, 13th, 31st, 15th and 13th respectively. Bowman, has finished 23rd and 18th in his two starts there in the No. 88 Chevrolet at Hendrick Motorsports.

By comparison, Matt Kenseth has the same odds as Bowman and better odds than Blaney but yet he hasn’t raced in NASCAR since 2018. He’s also never ran this new racing package before, nor worked with his new crew chief Chad Johnson or has ever driven a Chevrolet in NASCAR before either. How does he have equal odds to Bowman and better than Blaney then?

For their odds, they’re worth a low risk bet this weekend because they do have speed this year and no one has any practice to catch them next weekend either.

On the far flip side of things, you get the Toyota camp who’s been stellar in recent years at Darlington but have also lacked speed on the 2020 season thus far. If we base the favorites next Sunday off past Darlington history, then a no-brainer at the top of the list will be the Joe Gibbs Racing camp. Toyota has won three of the last four Southern 500’s with three different drivers (Truex Jr., Hamlin, Jones). The only one missing from that is Kyle Busch.

Busch (+500), has two top three finishes in his last three Darlington starts including a top seven finish in seven of his last eight starts at the Lady In Black. He and Kevin Harvick (+500) are top of the odds list. Furthermore, he’s had two straight top three finishes on the season. But, Busch would note that the top three’s have been a bit of good luck on his side too. The speed hasn’t been there in his No. 18 Toyota so far this season. The same can be said for his teammates too.

While Denny Hamlin (+800) won the season opening Daytona 500 and has a top 10 finish in eight of his last 10 Darlington starts, including five top four finishes in his last eight starts on the South Carolina oval, he’s only been 17th, sixth and 20th since his dramatic win in the season opener.

Martin Truex Jr’s (+800) best finish is 14th this season. He was 32nd in the first race (Daytona) and last race (Phoenix) of the year. He was 11th and 15th respectively in the last two Southern 500’s and has a new crew chief this year. His win in 2016 is his only top five on the 1.3 mile race track over his last seven starts there.

Then there’s Erik Jones (+1400). He’s in a contract year again and that scenario produced a win the last time out in Darlington. In fact, Jones has finished fifth (2017), eighth (2018) and first (2019) in three tries there. This season though, Jones sits 21st in the points with finishes of 18th, 23rd, 10th and 28th respectively.

So, while JGR won 19 of the 36 races a year ago, a Cup Series record, and went 1-2 in the Southern 500, I don’t necessarily expect they will dominate on Sunday afternoon based off how the 2020 season has gone thus far.

Joey Logano (+700) and his teammate Brad Keselowski (+1000) to go along with Chase Elliott (+800) are the only other drivers under +2000 next weekend. Logano, has two wins in 2020 and the third best odds overall. He was also runner-up at Darlington in the 2018 Southern 500 and has three top five finishes in his last five starts there. Keselowski, won that race in 2018 and has four top 10 finishes, three of which being in the top five, in his last five Darlington starts. He’s been a solid top 10 or 11 car so far in 2020 too.

Elliott, has been really quick so far this year too but his finishes in the four races aren’t indicative on how much speed he really has. Elliott, won three of the first four stages in 2020 including having five top two finishes over the last six of them. He’s also led the most laps in two of the last three races. But, Elliott was involved in a crash at Daytona and had an issue during the end of the race in Vegas to go along with a loose wheel in Phoenix. The finishes were 17th, 26th and seventh respectively. In Darlington, he won an NXS race there to go along with scoring a fifth place run in 2018 and three top 11 finishes in his last four tries.

Out of all of them, I would have to still side with Harvick as the favorite overall, hence him being tied with Busch for the best odds. The only guy with a top 10 finish in all four races so far, has six straight top 10 finishes in Darlington including five of which inside of the top five. He led 63 total laps led with RCR but 518 in just six tries with SH including 238 in 2014 and 214 in 2016. 

So, how about some of the longer shot guys?

Jimmie Johnson (+2000) doesn’t have recent stats at Darlington that are worth batting an eye at, but he is a past winner there. He’s also had a much better start to the season too. He looked stout in Daytona, was fifth in Vegas, seventh in Fontana and 12th in Phoenix. He looks like his 98 race winless drought is coming to an end soon as he has a ton of speed. Why not for these odds?

I also like Kurt Busch (+2000). He has three consecutive top seven finishes at Darlington to go along with four in the last five overall there. He was third two races ago in Fontana and sixth at Phoenix a week later. For those odds, go with Busch next weekend.

That’s really about it as far as who I’d look to. This race is going to come down to driver and crew chief communication on how to make the car better as the race goes on, so I don’t expect any of the rookies to contend, especially since they’re struggled out of the gates so far anyways. Neither Aric Almirola (+4000) or his teammate Clint Bowyer (+3300) have shown much speed yet either in 2020 and they struggle with Darlington. Almirola, has never scored a top 10 there in eight tries while Bowyer has just one top 10 in his last 12 Darlington starts with no career top fives to his credit on the egg shaped race track. Also, both swapped crew chiefs this past offseason, so they haven’t had much time to gel with them.

The safe picks are –

1. Harvick (+500)
2. KyBusch (+500)
3. Logano (+700)
4. Elliott (+800)

Sleepers

1. Jones (+1400)
2. KuBusch (+2000)

Low Risk Bets

1. Bowman +2000
2. Johnson +2000
3. Blaney +2500

Don’t Touch

1. Hamlin +800
2. Truex Jr. +800
3. Kenseth +2000
4. Bowyer +3300
5. Almirola +4000
6. Byron +4000
7. All rookies (Custer, Bell, Reddick, Nemechek)