Track HISTORY/RACE TRENDS

• JGR, Penske, HMS have won 17 of the last 18 Martinsville races including four of the last six belonging to HMS at that.
• The front row starters have failed to win each of the last 20 Martinsville races overall.
• The last seven overall Martinsville races were won by a driver coming from fifth on back.

Between the spring race and this one, it’s a 100 lap difference.

How much of a factor will that play?

I mean you’re truly only talking about a 53 mile differential in mileage still between the 500 lap and 400 lap events here. We’ve shortened races at other tracks by 100 miles. This is basically half of that. So, will it truly change the outcome?

It may.

Since the stage era began in 2017, we’ve had 12 Martinsville races. In them, the leader at Lap 400 failed to win the race in the end 5 times. They’ve also won the race 7 times too including 7 of the last 10 overall.

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Live Betting

• The eventual race winner had a top five finish in the first stage every year minus the last two Fall races and this spring. Bell was 6th last October in Stage 1, Larson was ninth this past spring.
  • William Byron finished 2nd in both stages in the spring of 2022.
• If you want to win, you better find yourself in the top two or three by the end of the second stage. Since we began stage racing in 2017, the eventual winner has finished either first (4 times), second (3 times) or third (twice) in 9 of the 13 second stages. Bell was 5th last October.
• 7 of the 13 races at Martinsville under the stage era here saw the driver to lead the most laps win the race in the end.

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Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+275)

His back is against the wall. Four of his last seven Martinsville finishes have seen him come home 11th or worse. However, he now has two straight Top-5 finishes now (5th last Fall, 4th this spring). He’s also won here five times, swept both stages last year in the Fall race and led 203 laps in the process. Last year’s test here between the spring and Fall races could have put him back on the right path. He has five straight Top-7 finishes on short track races on the season too including a runner-up in Richmond and win at Bristol in the last two.

Kyle Larson (+700)

He was a fade this spring. Then he went out and led the final 30 laps en route to a win. Larson, has three Top-5 (5th place in 2021, 2nd last Fall, 1st spring) in his last 12 Martinsville tries including 11 of his 17 tries there seeing him finish outside the Top-15. Still, two straight Top-2’s here and two wins (Richmond, Martinsville), to go along with five Top-4 finishes in seven short track starts this season gives me reason to snag him.

William Byron (+750)

Byron also has six Top-8’s in his last eight Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth respectively in 2021 and a win in the spring race a year ago after leading the final 212 laps. My only concern is that he finished 23rd this past spring and has finished 21st or worse in four of his last six short track starts on the season too. Still, Byron has nine Top-10 finishes and six Top-5’s over the last 10 weeks compared to having scored just three Top-10’s and only one Top-5 in the 10 weeks prior.

Martin Truex Jr. (+900)

He’s won three of the last eight Martinsville races. The only ones that he didn’t win was the last three Fall races to where he led 129 laps in the Fall of 2020 and was fourth in 2021. He was third this past spring too.

Truex, has eight Top-5’s in his last 12 tries on the Virginia paperclip and on a track with a tight turning radius similar to Martinsville (LA Coliseum), he won. He also has two points paying wins and four Top-7 finishes in his last five short track starts this season.

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Sleepers

Brad Keselowski (+850)

Keselowski has six Top-5 finishes in his last 10 starts in Martinsville including 10 in his last 15 overall. He also has four Top-3’s in his last nine there too. On short tracks this season, he’s finished 10th, 24th, eighth, fifth, sixth, eighth in the last six.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

Blaney, has seven Top-5s in his last 11 tries on the Virginia paperclip overall including third in this very race a year ago. While he was 11th in both races in 2021, he did sweep both stages in the spring race that season. That’s the good. However, Blaney has been 14th or worse in four of his last six short track starts this season too. With being +10 in points entering, I think he has to play it safe and score stage points and hope that someone below him doesn’t win. Blaney had two Top-6’s in 20 races to three in the last four now too.

Joey Logano (+1400)

Joey Logano has scored a pair of Top-5 finishes at Martinsville in 2020 and again the last two springs (2nd in both) to go along with 10 Top-10’s in his last 11 tries. He was 6th last October too. He also has finished 11th, seventh, second, 31st, second, fourth and 34th on short tracks this season.

Ty Gibbs (+2800)

Won last year’s Fall race in the Xfinity Series after being eighth in the spring. He was also fourth in the 2021 Xfinity Series spring race and is driving a JGR car now in Cup too. Gibbs was 19th here with 23XI Racing last Fall and 18th in this ride this spring. He also finished fifth at Bristol too.

Aric Almirola (+3000)

He’s not had a Top-5 ever on this track, but was 20th and sixth in 2021 respectively and eighth and sixth the last two spring races too.

Chase Briscoe (+3500)

He was ninth in both races last year and fifth this past spring (109 laps led). He also has five Top-12 finishes in seven short track starts this season (7th, 12th, 5th, 30th, 10th, 11th, 27th).

Alex Bowman (+4500)

These odds baffled me. Bowman has three Top-6 finishes in his last six Martinsville starts including a win in the 2021 playoff race. He was 11th this past spring.

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Fades

Tyler Reddick (+1500)

Not one of his stronger tracks. Reddick has finished 16th or worse in six of his seven Martinsville starts with a best finish of eighth. On short tracks this season, he’s finished third (Phoenix), 16th, 22nd, seventh, sixth 16th, 15th.

Kevin Harvick (+1800)

He’s had just two Top-5s in his last 22 Martinsville starts including 15th and 17th in 2020, ninth and 12th last year and 14th and 16th last year and 20th this spring.

Kyle Busch (+1900)

Busch has 13 Top-10 finishes in his last 16 at Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the Fall race of 2021. At the Coliseum, he and his RCR teammate of Austin Dillon were 2-3. Austin Dillon was in the top five here a year ago too. However, Busch has maintained these are his worst tracks this season and he was 21st this past spring. Five of his last six short track finishes have been 14th or worse.

Christopher Bell (+2000)

He was a fade last year until his playoff win. Bell had three Top 8’s, two of which are Top 5’s, in four Truck Series starts at Martinsville. However, in five Cup Series starts entering last October’s race, he finished 28th, 15th, seventh, 17th and 20th respectively with nine career laps led…Then he went out and led 150 laps to take a clutch victory. This spring, he was back to his old ways in a 16th place finish without any laps led. On short tracks this season, he’s also finished sixth, fourth 16th, sixth, 29th, 20th, third too. With a finish of second and first this round though and winning this race last year, could be worth the risk. Bell went from one Top-5 in 20 races to four now in the last six.

Ross Chastain (+4000)

Finished fifth and fourth respectively last year in Martinsville and has been very good at Phoenix lately too. He’s been 13th or worse in five of seven short track races this season too including 13th here.

Daniel Suarez (+6500)

No Top-10 finishes on short tracks this season land him here. He’s finished 22nd, 23rd, 17th, 35th, 16th, 33rd and 21st on them this season. This isn’t one of his finer tracks either. Suarez has been 27th or worse in six of his last eight Martinsville starts. He was 12th last Fall and 17th this past spring.

Austin Cindric (+40000)

He was a respectable 11th as a rookie here in the spring race in 2021. In fact, he’s had a top 11 in all but two Martinsville race since Oct. 28, 2017 on this track. That came last October (26th) and this spring (33rd).