Martin Truex Jr. has been here all postseason. The brink of elimination. He’s evaded being knocked out each time. Can he do so again on Sunday at the Martinsville (VA) Speedway?

Now, the situation is more dire though. He’s 17 points back of the final cut spot to Phoenix. So is teammate Denny Hamlin who’s not been in this situation during this year’s postseason. He won the Round of 16 cut race but was more than good on points entering. He had done enough in the first two races of the next round that all he had to do was get by on the ROVAL. Now, he’s tied with Truex, 17 points arrears with 1 race left.

There’s a scenario to where both can get by but it’s going to take a lot. William Byron is 37 points up the road. They need to catch him then 1 of them win.

For Hamlin, a driver who’s been criticized for not living up to big moments in being 0-for-4 in the Championship 4 and 0-for-5 with a championship in sights for the final race, this is his moment to show that he can score clutch wins and that’s in plural.

“I really do, but I also know sometimes things out of your control can happen,’’ Hamlin said of his title expectations in the last round. “You’ve got to understand that. I say that, so you don’t crash too far down when things don’t go your way and you don’t have the outcome you expect. But certainly based on the speed we show week-in and week-out, absolutely I believe we’re one of the best four teams out there that should compete for a championship at Phoenix.

“But you have to play the game. There’s a lot of work that has to be done between now and then and sometimes things are out of your control. But if they do stay in our control, I believe it’s a year that we would be tough to beat.’’

Sounds prophetic.

In a matter of five minutes during the closing laps of last Sunday’s race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway, Hamlin and regular season champion Truex Jr. – fell out the race with major problems.

Hamlin’s No. 11 JGR Toyota slammed into the Turn 1 wall. And as the field slowed for that caution period, Truex turned down pit road and told the team his car “might be blowing up.’’

As Hamlin sat on pit wall, disappointed and speaking with his crew, Truex turned the engine off and the crew pushed his No. 19 JGR Toyota it into the garage. Both Playoff drivers were done for the day and dropping below the crucial top-four threshold that will advance to the Nov. 5 Championship 4 race in Phoenix. Truex was scored 29th and Hamlin, 30th.

All of it making for an even more intense race at the half-mile Martinsville (Va.) Speedway this week that will formally set the four-driver NASCAR Cup Series championship field.

“We tried and it just didn’t work out,’’ an obviously disappointed Hamlin said.

“It shows you how hard our sport is, that’s two cars and we had been up front,’’ JGR team owner Joe Gibbs said. “It also shows you in sports – particularly in ours with that 20-car (Bell) – it shows never to stop fighting.’’

I don’t think there’s any reason of doubt to say that Hamlin is a for sure First Ballot Hall of Famer in this sport. 51 Cup Series wins in an era that’s growing more and more increasingly difficult to win, he’s still winning in bunches.

He’s won almost all the crown jewels now. He’s a 3-time Daytona 500 champion, as well as reaching victory lane 3 times in the Southern 500 and the Bristol Night Race. He’s also won the All-Star race once and the Coca-Cola 600. The only thing missing is an Indianapolis win and a championship.

Is this truly his year?

His 13 playoff wins rank 3rd best. Just Jimmie Johnson’s 29 trips to victory lane during the postseason and Harvick’s 16 rank higher.

Can he march back to the Championship 4 at Phoenix. He has 4 of them already, which is 4th best. The only ones ahead of him each have 5 (Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick).

He’s made 3 Championship 4’s in the last four years. Last year he entered with the least amount of playoff points heading into the playoffs than the other 3 previously and he missed the final round by 1 measly point.

“It’s our year,” Hamlin said after scoring his 51st career NASCAR Cup Series victory in Bristol. “I just feel like we’ve got it all put together. We’ve got the speed every single type of racetrack. Nothing to stop us at this point.”

If this is his year, he has to win Martinsville, a place he’s won 5 times at and led 203 laps including sweeping both stages last year. He’s finished 5th and 4th in his last 2 races there.

But, Truex has won 3 of the last 8 on the same track. While he’s struggling this postseason with just 1 finish better than 17th in the last 9 races, his back is against the wall and needing a win.

This is essentially a Championship race for both. Don’t win, don’t advance. Win and get by. But, it’s going to take a win next Sunday in Phoenix to in order to win a championship. Can either deliver?

Seven times the winner of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway has gone on to win the title that same season – the most of any track on the Playoff schedule. In fact, it occurred just 2020 for the 2nd time in a three year span as well as three times in the last six years. 

Sounds great for the winner Sunday, right? The thing is, in saying the stat above, the Martinsville-Phoenix two-step only moved to the final two races of the year just three years ago. They’re 1-for-3 in producing this feat. Prior to that, in this playoff era that began in 2004, only five times in 17 years did a playoff driver win the final two races of a season and only twice in the seven years of this new format did someone win both the penultimate race as well as the final race to take a championship. 

Translation?

It’s not as likely as it sounds.

Is this a factor of putting all of your eggs in one basket for the current race and not focusing too much ahead to the final race? I mean, you have to look at this in the sole fact of why focus on Homestead in the past or Phoenix this year, early if you aren’t guaranteed to be competing for a championship there? You have to make it to the Championship 4 first. Why spend too much time making race cars and dialing in off the truck setups for the season finale if you’re not going to be racing for a championship there? Why not spend all of your waking hours focusing on how to make your race car good for the upcoming race that weekend in order to just win and guarantee your spot into the final round?

By not knowing that you’ll be a part of the final round until the final race of the round before, you’re really behind the eight ball in catching up to Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell who’ve already stamped their ways in.