Christopher Bell won this very race at the Martinsville (VA) Speedway last Fall. Kyle Larson won the spring race on the .526-mile Virginia paperclip this past spring. The last two Martinsville winners, don’t have to worry about needing to win again in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race. They’ve both already won in the Round of 8 – Larson in Vegas, Bell in Homestead.

With that said, can either use this advantage of not having to worry about the elimination race to use it for a potential championship next Sunday at Phoenix?

The winner of the Round of 8 opener has gone on to win the championship in 3 of the last 5 years including 2 straight. It’s a massive advantage.

“Obviously it’s nice to win and lock in, so you can focus on Phoenix,” said Larson. “At the same point you really can’t look too far ahead of yourself. There’s still two other races before then.”

Last year, Joey Logano had the rare advantage as well as being the only driver from the Round of 8 to spend the last two weeks knowing that he’s racing for a championship in Phoenix. He won the third-round opener in Las Vegas. With Larson winning in Homestead a week later, it meant that Logano came into Martinsville (the cutoff race) as the only one still knowing that he’s racing for a championship. Why would the other 7 dream of Phoenix when they first have to get to Phoenix?

“We’ve had three weeks to think about our race car and how we want to play the race out, how we want to run practice,” Logano said a year ago in this moment. “We’ve had the opportunity to really, really dive deep into Phoenix, so we’ll take that to our advantage and move on.

“Well, it’s really nice because it’s even a bigger advantage than it was when we were racing in Miami because the car has to leave sooner now, right? We had to leave Wednesday noontime to get here on time.

“If you imagine, like, you got to be really prepared because if you race Sunday and you finally realize you’re in, then you have Monday, Tuesday. Wednesday you better be done with everything.

“In that time, the driver has to go do media, the driver has all these other things they got to do on top of that. There’s not time to prep the correct way, whereas our team, we’ve had a couple weeks to really focus in 100%, at least 95%, on Phoenix.

“We had a conversation about Miami. Yeah, sure, sounds good, let’s do it. What about Phoenix? That’s how our conversations were, as they should be. The only one that matters is Sunday.”

For Bell, the winner of the second race, has finished either second or third in 3 of the last 4 years and won the title in the other.

He’s heating up in the right moment at the right time. Last year, he forced his way in via clutch moments. He came into the Round of 12 elimination race in a must-win situation. He’d reach victory lane to get by to the Round of 8. He came to Martinsville a year ago in another must-win. He do it again.

With a win now on Sunday, has Bell become Mr. Clurch?

“I don’t think that it’s anything. There is no magic in it,” Bell admitted. “Fortunately or unfortunately I’ve been put in a lot of these positions growing up. I think it’s just a credit to me driving professionally for as long as I have.

“You improve on things every time you get into that position. My first walk-off win was Charlotte road course. That was certainly not the first high-pressure event that I’d been in in my career. You learn from it and you get better every time. I just credit it to my racing background and being a professional racer long before I entered into the NASCAR series.

“I certainly thrive on pressure and I love it. I live for those type of moments. That’s why last week hurt so bad because I live for those moments. Whenever you have an opportunity to be great…”

Bell said Vegas hurt him. He tends to struggle to get over past races that got away. So for him to come from behind the way that they did this past Sunday was more of a credit to the team he says.

“To come into the Charlotte road course, I’ve said this a million times, in a must-win situation, whenever we sucked on road courses all year, to have the car capability we had, same thing at Martinsville, now the Round of 8 basically every race is a must win with our points situation,” Bell continued.

“Vegas was amazing. Certainly had a car capable of winning. Then a huge, huge turn of events from stage two to stage three this week to get our car to where I could maintain my track position and win the race.”

Now, neither need to worry about anything on Sunday. Does that help or hurt them?

“I’m glad I won and locked in, but I like that now I can go to Homestead, Martinsville and just race,” said Larson. “You’re not really focused on points. You can be a little more aggressive now, trying to, yeah, just win really is the goal. At the same point, you don’t want to piss anybody off before we get to Phoenix, so that’s also a goal, is to race everybody fairly and not be a part of the story really the next couple weeks, other than winning would be great.”

Bell agrees.

“I may just stay home next week (laughter). No, I’m kidding,” he joked. “Our outlook for the race is completely different. So if the strategy presents itself, an opportunity to flip the stages and get track position, you take it because you’re not worried about points.

“Yeah, I mean, those guys have a lot more to race for than what I do now going into Martinsville. The mentality’s completely different for them than it is for me. You just have to be aware of that.

“Being able to focus on just winning the race and not having to score points definitely has its benefits. That’s where we’re at. I think we should be really competitive next week. Martinsville is obviously a good track for me. I look forward to going there and having a week with no pressure.”

Larson’s Crew Chief, Cliff Daniels, says that they’ll have to match the others’ intensity though.

“Now that we’re in the position that we’re in, we get to play those races to win, a late call, flipping a stage, if a caution comes out, whatever it may be, versus having to play the race for points. I think that’s the position it puts us in the next two weeks,” he admitted after their Vegas win.

“From a team exercise, all those other guys are so good, they’re going to be pushing hard to win the next two weeks. I think we have to match that intensity so we’re going into Phoenix with the right level of intensity ourselves, get there with strength.”

Which is why the debate is a double-edged sword. you don’t want to completely punt on Martinsville because you don’t want to risk losing this momentum and speed that they’ve shown to have found. You also don’t want to risk getting complacent and falling out of rhythm then having in the most pressure packed situation of the entire season in a winner-take-all race for the championship, have to just turn it back on again.

On the flip side, you don’t want to waste being the only drivers that has clinched a spot into the final round either.

The winner of the third race has finished last among the Championship 4 a week later for two of the last four years.

Chase Elliott changed that narrative in 2020.

“That’s a really good point,” Elliott told me. “I certainly think that the team that wins that very first race in the Round of 8 and gets locked in, you have more time to think about what car you want to take to the final race, more time to massage on it, so I definitely think that can be a slight advantage. I think that’s a great point. I do think that can be a slight advantage in car selection and time to tweak on those really, really small fine tuning items that can add up to make a difference.

“I can see that being a help.”

With the one spot likely going to a cast of five driver vying for it, I can honestly see one of them winning on Sunday. The question is, who and can they use this to propel them to a championship run next Sunday in Phoenix too? For those five drivers, they race for a championship this week and next. Is that any sort of an advantage?

There’s the role in this of the drivers not already locked in being in championship mode still this week while the few that aren’t are onto the Championship 4 have been relaxed the last few weeks. Can they flip that switch back on that easily or does being in a do-or-die mindset at Martinsville keep those drivers’ minds more focused a week later?

The wildcards that haven’t won in the Round of 8 though, have actually fared better than the guys that have won the final race itself. 6 of the 8 combined drivers in the last two Championship 4’s were wildcards. Kyle Busch won the championship in 2019 as one. Brad Keselowski was in 2020. So was Martin Truex Jr. in 2018 as a wildcard but won the championship in 2017 as one too. Kevin Harvick was also second in 2016 as a wildcard while Kyle Busch won the championship as one in 2015. Ryan Newman was a wildcard and finished second in 2014 too.

That’s a wildcard driver with a top two finish in all 8 years thus far. We will have one wildcard next weekend.

The reason behind that is, the wildcard drivers have shown speed throughout the entire season and didn’t necessarily need to win in the Round of 8 to get by.

Busch, won the regular season championship in 2019 and had well enough playoff points to get himself by. In 2018, Busch and Harvick were the top two in playoff points accumulated, but both won in the Round of 8. Truex Jr. had the next best with 38 scored, 13 more than anyone else. He had four wins that season and took the wildcard spot.

Truex, had 69 playoff points in 2017 and seven wins before the Round of 8. That’s why he didn’t need to win and as the top seed got into the Championship 4 by virtue of that.

But, in saying all of this, the last 4 years is also different in the sense that we’re using a similar racing package in the final two races of the season in general. Martinsville and Phoenix are the short track package.

From 2014 though 2019, the drivers went through two disciplines of tracks over the final two races in Phoenix (short track) to Homestead (1.5-mile track).

How much of a role does that play in this too?

“I can see momentum playing a role,” Elliott said of winning the last race of the Round of 8 and winning again a week later for a championship. “I can see winning Martinsville being a big momentum booster for that team to propel them to doing a really good job the following week. I think it’s really about how you ride the wave if you’re that team that can win that last race of the Round of 8.

“I definitely think that it’s great that we’re ending the season on two (similar package) tracks. I’m a bigger fan of that in deciding our champion on the final two races. That has my vote. Not that I get one. But I’m really looking forward to seeing that too.

“Could you potentially take your Martinsville car to Phoenix? You might. That might be a good thing performance wise as well.”

Elliott did in 2020 and he won the title. The drivers needing a win are virtually racing for a championship this Sunday and again next so they’re already in desperation mode.

It will be interesting this weekend to see if this weeks winner can win again next Sunday and take home a championship trophy as well.

Bell feels like they’re firing on all cylinders though. He went from 1 top 5 in 20 races to 4 in the last 6.

Larson feels like they’re better now than in the championship winning season of two years ago.

“Sheer speed and stuff, I feel like we’ve been very similar to where we were in 2021,” Larson said after his fourth win of the season last Sunday. “We’ve probably contended for as many wins as we did then. These Next Gen races are tougher to win.

“I’ve said that all along since the beginning of the year that this feels very similar to 2021. Thankfully, we’re in position like we were in 2021. Hopefully, we can cap it off like we did then, too.”

That 2021 season Larson led over 2,000 laps and reached victory lane 10 times. While he has 6 less wins thus far in 2023, he has eclipsed the 1,000 lap led barrier and is the first driver in this Next Gen era to do so.

One could say that it’s harder to win now than ever before with so much parity and how much change that this car has brought forth.