The penultimate race of the Round of 8 is here. 2 races left to decide who races for the championship next month at Phoenix. Here’s what’s at stake for Sunday’s 4EVER 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN).

• Berth to Phoenix – Kyle Larson is already in the Championship 4. Does someone win Sunday’s race among the Round of 8 participants and join him? Currently William Byron (+11), Denny Hamlin (+4) and Martin Truex Jr. (+3) are above the cutline. Christopher Bell (-3), Tyler Reddick (-15), Chris Buescher (-23) and Ryan Blaney (-56) are trying to move their ways in. Can they?
• Non Playoff Winner? In each of the last 3 years a non-playoff driver won in this round. Kyle Busch won at Texas in 2020. Alex Bowman won in Martinsville in 2021. Kyle Larson won at Homestead last year. You can make a strong case that either they or someone like Chase Elliott or Kevin Harvick finds victory over the next 2 races.
  • I can’t fathom Harvick going winless in his final season and with the Championship 4 being won every year since 2014 by a final round member, it leaves him just 2 more shots. He, Busch (2 straight 3rd place finishes on the season), Brad Keselowski (6 top 10’s in his last 8 races) and Ross Chastain (4 top 10’s, 3 in the top 5 in 7 playoff races) are all going to be threats on Sunday.
  • Busch has six Top-6 finishes in his last eight starts at Homestead including four of which in the top four. He was 10th and ninth the last two years. He was seventh and 11th this year in Darlington. Chastain was runner-up here last year and lined up on the final restart at the spring Darlington race on the front row. He was 5th in the Southern 500. Keselowski was fifth last year and fourth and sixth at Darlington this year. Harvick was only 26th in 2020 but rebounded to score a fifth-place run in 2021 and eighth last year. Harvick also has 14 Top-10 finishes in his last 15 Homestead starts including 18 of his last 20 when going back two decades ago. He was runner-up in the spring Darlington race and if not for bad luck with a caution while running second on pit road, he had a Top-2 going again in the Southern 500.
• Parity – The last 10 races have each been won by nine different drivers — Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and Joey Logano.
• Stage Points – NASCAR began using stage breaks in their races in 2017, the eventual race winner of the Cup Series race on the South Florida 1.5 mile track has finished in the top five of every stage run. They’re 12-for-12. Kyle Larson won last year and swept both stages. William Byron won the year prior and finished 4th and 1st in the two stages. Denny Hamlin won the 2020 race and swept both stages again. Kyle Busch won the year prior and was 3rd and 1st in the two stages. Joey Logano was victorious in 2018 and was fourth and third respectively himself. Martin Truex Jr. was fifth and second respectively in his win in 2017.
• Last Shot For Those Below Cut Line? For Homestead, Blaney was 3rd in 2021 and made a mistake while running in the top five a year ago. Buescher won Stage 1 in 2021 including 57 laps led. However, contact on a second stage restart ruined his handling which dropped him to outside the top 15. Buescher is at his best on aged tracks too. At Darlington this year, he finished 10th and 3rd. Ford has won 1 of the last 12 at Homestead and didn’t lead a single lap a year ago. Reddick was fourth in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. While he exited early last year for his first result worse than fourth at Homestead, he’s finished second in each of the last two Southern 500’s too.