Eric Smith

Sunday’s favorites, sleepers, fades, Homestead Track Trends

TRACK: Homestead-Miami Speedway (1.5 mile oval) DISTANCE: 267 Laps – STAGE 1: 80 Laps, Stage 2: 85 Laps, FINAL STAGE 102 LAPS, 400.5 Miles)

The track has been on the NASCAR schedule since 1999. But, for the first time since the races inception, the 2020 event was moved from November to the Spring. Due to COVID, it was delayed until June. Then, the race was moved to February but now it has a new home – October.

  • The ones to watch are certainly the Toyota drivers. Toyota has won two of the last four Homestead races including four of the last six and five of the last eight.
  • NASCAR began using stage breaks in their races in 2017, the eventual race winner of the Cup Series race on the South Florida 1.5 mile track has finished in the top five of every stage run. They’re 12-for-12. Kyle Larson won last year and swept both stages. William Byron won the year prior and finished 4th and 1st in the two stages. Denny Hamlin won the 2020 race and swept both stages again. Kyle Busch won the year prior and was 3rd and 1st in the two stages. Joey Logano was victorious in 2018 and was fourth and third respectively himself. Martin Truex Jr. was fifth and second respectively in his win in 2017.
  • Don’t expect overtime – 15 of the last 16 Homestead races ended on Lap 267.
  • Ford has won 1 of the last 12 at Homestead.
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 5 of the starting lineup.
  • The last 10 races have each been won by nine different drivers — Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and Joey Logano.
HOMESTEAD, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 23: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 Valvoline Chevrolet, takes the checkered flag to win the NASCAR Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 23, 2022 in Homestead, Florida. (Photo by Jared East/Getty Images)

Favorites

Kyle Larson (+275)

Larson has been so dominant on this 1.5-mile track in the past. He has five Top-5 finishes in his last seven starts there including leading 132 laps in a runner-up effort in 2016, 145 more in a third place run in 2017, 45 laps in 2018 and leading 199 of 267 laps in his sweep last year. He also just won the Southern 500 and restarted on a late restart in the spring Darlington race in the lead. Coming off of a dominating win in Vegas has him rightfully priced.

Tyler Reddick (+500)

This is his race. He was fourth in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. While he exited early last year for his first result worse than fourth at Homestead, he’s finished second in each of the last two Southern 500’s too.

Denny Hamlin (+700)

He swept both stages and the win in 2020 and was 11th and seventh the last two years. He’s had great cars at Darlington in each of the last two years as well and if not for a loose wheel, was likely to win the Southern 500.

William Byron (+750)

Byron was in the Top-10 in 2020 and won in 2021 and 12th last year despite finishing third in the second stage. He was first and fourth in Darlington this year too.

HOMESTEAD, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 23: Ross Chastain, driver of the #1 Kubota Chevrolet, and Christopher Bell, driver of the #20 Rheem – WATTS Toyota, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 23, 2022 in Homestead, Florida. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1400)

He has six Top-6 finishes in his last eight starts at Homestead including four of which in the top four. He was 10th and ninth the last two years. He was seventh and 11th this year in Darlington and coming into the weekend on the heels of two straight third place finishes.

Ross Chastain (+1600)

He’s never been particularly great here but that was with underfunded teams. He then was runner-up last year and crashed with Larson while running in the Top-2 late in the spring Darlington race and was fifth in the Southern 500 too. Also, Chastain enters on the heels of a Top-5 finish last weekend. The only thing is, his team owner admitted to the punting on the season and focusing on R&D for 2024. How much of an effect will this have?

Ryan Blaney (+1800)

He finished third in 2021 and has been good at Homestead overall in both the Xfinity and Truck Series races too. If not for a mistake last year, he had another Top-5 going. He was fourth in Stage 2. He finished ninth in both Darlington races.

Brad Keselowski (+2000)

Fifth last year and fourth and sixth at Darlington this year. He led 38 laps and finished in the Top-5 last Sunday in Vegas.

Chris Buescher (+2200)

Remember he won Stage 1 in 2021 including 57 laps led. However, contact on a second stage restart ruined his handling which dropped him to outside the top 15. Buescher is at his best on aged tracks and there’s no reason to believe he can’t win on Sunday, especially with the season that he’s having.

Kevin Harvick (+3500)

He was only 26th in 2020 but rebounded to score a fifth-place run in 2021 and eighth last year. Harvick also has 14 Top-10 finishes in his last 15 Homestead starts including 18 of his last 20 when going back two decades ago. He was runner-up in the spring Darlington race and if not for bad luck with a caution while running second on pit road, he had a Top-2 going again in the Southern 500.

Erik Jones (+8000)

He just won last year in Darlington and 10th this past year for the Southern 500, was third here in 2019.

Austin Dillon (+25000)

He’s had a Top-15 for eight straight years including finishes of 14th to 12th to 11th to 11th again to eight then to seventh to 12th to fourth last year.

Austin Cindric (+50000)

He’s had a Top-5 in all but one Homestead start across the Truck Series and Xfinity Series. He was 19th last year. He was 19th and 31st though in Darlington this season.

HOMESTEAD, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 22: Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota, drives during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 22, 2022 in Homestead, Florida. (Photo by Jared East/Getty Images)

Fades

Martin Truex Jr. (+550)

Three Top-2s in his last five Homestead tries and a car capable of winning last year before a bad pit stop on the final one. But, he still just looks off. They’re not executing on a race winning caliber and last week’s pit call confirms that fact. He needs a Top-5 before I’m ready to risk these type of odds for an outright race win.

Christopher Bell (+1400)

He has one Top-10 finish in three Homestead Cup tries (11th last year) and was also sixth, fifth, 14th and 23rd respectively in his last four Darlington starts too. Bell mentioned that this track over the years hasn’t been great for him.

Chase Elliott (+1800)

I don’t like him at this number. He does have three Top-7’s in his last five Homestead starts, but he’s also winless here and Darlington too. He was fifth and 36th this past year at Darlington and 21st the last time out at Homestead.

Joey Logano (+3500)

Can he rebound from being 27th, 25th, 18th the last three years? Logano, had five straight Top-6 finishes prior.

Aric Almirola (+25000)

Was fifth in 2020 and has two Top-10 finishes in his last five Homestead starts. He was 21sst last year.

Chase Briscoe (+40000)

He was last (36th) as rookie in the Cup Series here last year. He did finish outside the Top-20 in both Darlington races run last season and 17th, 15th this season. However, he calls Homestead his favorite track still. It’s the place of his first NASCAR win coming in the Truck Series in his rookie season back in 2017. He won an Xfinity Series race here in 2019 too.

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