I wondered coming into the Round of 8 if the drivers above the cutline would remain that way. Now, I’m even more curious if it remains status quo. While there was no movement in regards to any of the four drivers below the cutline, moving above water, I feel like if it’s going to happen, Sunday’s race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway would be the spot.

Right now, Christopher Bell (-2) Tyler Reddick (-16), Ryan Blaney (-17) and Chris Buescher (-23) are trying to get into the final round. While points wise it’s pretty clear that this may be geared towards more of Bell and Reddick having a better chance of pointsing their ways in, it likely is going to come down to a win.

Here’s why.

 In each of the last 3 years a non-playoff driver won in this round. Kyle Busch won at Texas in 2020. Alex Bowman won in Martinsville in 2021. Kyle Larson won at Homestead last year. You can make a strong case that either they or someone like Chase Elliott or Kevin Harvick finds victory over the next 2 races.

I can’t fathom Harvick going winless in his final season and with the Championship 4 being won every year since 2014 by a final round member, it leaves him just 2 more shots.

He, Busch (2 straight 3rd place finishes on the season), Brad Keselowski (6 top 10’s in his last 8 races) and Ross Chastain (4 top 10’s, 3 in the top 5 in 7 playoff races) are all going to be threats on Sunday.

Busch has six Top-6 finishes in his last eight starts at Homestead including four of which in the top four. He was 10th and ninth the last two years. He was seventh and 11th this year in Darlington. Chastain was runner-up here last year and lined up on the final restart at the spring Darlington race on the front row. He was 5th in the Southern 500. Keselowski was fifth last year and fourth and sixth at Darlington this year. Harvick was only 26th in 2020 but rebounded to score a fifth-place run in 2021 and eighth last year. Harvick also has 14 Top-10 finishes in his last 15 Homestead starts including 18 of his last 20 when going back two decades ago. He was runner-up in the spring Darlington race and if not for bad luck with a caution while running second on pit road, he had a Top-2 going again in the Southern 500.

That’s why I can see 1 of them winning on Sunday.

I can also see the others above the cutline pulling further away too.

William Byron (+11) was in the Top-10 in 2020 and won in 2021 and 12th last year despite finishing third in the second stage. He was first and fourth in Darlington this year too.

Denny Hamlin (+4) swept both stages and the win in 2020 and was 11th and seventh the last two years. He’s had great cars at Darlington in each of the last two years as well and if not for a loose wheel, was likely to win the Southern 500.

Martin Truex Jr. (+3) has three Top-2s in his last five Homestead tries and a car capable of winning last year before a bad pit stop on the final one. Now that he’s led laps again and had a top 10 last Sunday, could his momentum be changing.

Which puts the onus on winning if you’re the four below the cutline.

For Homestead, Blaney was 3rd in 2021 and made a mistake while running in the top five a year ago. Buescher won Stage 1 in 2021 including 57 laps led. However, contact on a second stage restart ruined his handling which dropped him to outside the top 15. Buescher is at his best on aged tracks too. At Darlington this year, he finished 10th and 3rd.

Reddick was fourth in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. While he exited early last year for his first result worse than fourth at Homestead, he’s finished second in each of the last two Southern 500’s too.

They have to capitalize then. That’s also because none of which could have much at Martinsville.

Yes, Ford’s led 296 laps on the Virginia paperclip this spring. In fact, Ford’s have led 499 laps on short tracks this season. Toyota has led the most at 989 but Chevy trails Ford in this stat at 462.

Ryan Blaney was fourth and seventh in the last two spring races there, third in last year’s Fall race while also coming home runner-up in both races in 2020. He was fourth and fifth respectively in 2019. Blaney, has seven Top-5s in his last 11 tries on the Virginia paperclip overall. While he was 11th in both races in 2021, he did sweep both stages in the spring race. That’s the good. However, Blaney has been 14th or worse in four of his last six short track starts this season too and ranks 22nd in short track points scored this season at 102. He’s never won at Martinsville either.

Chris Buescher ranks 13th (135 points scored) and was only 15th and 24th at Martinsville last year and 14th this year.

So it’s likely down to this weekend for them. Same for Reddick.

Reddick has finished 16th or worse in six of his seven Martinsville starts with a best finish of eighth. On short tracks this season, he’s finished third (Phoenix), 16th, 22nd, seventh, sixth 16th, 15th.

For Bell, he’s not been great any either of the next 2 tracks statistically.

For Homestead, he has one Top-10 finish in three Cup tries (11th last year) and was also sixth, fifth, 14th and 23rd respectively in his last four Darlington starts.

At Martinsville, yes he won this race a year ago, but he finished 28th, 15th, seventh, 17th and 20th respectively with nine career laps led prior…Then he went out and led 150 laps to take a clutch victory. This past spring, he was back to his old ways in a 16th place finish without any laps led. On short tracks this season, he’s also finished sixth, fourth 16th, sixth, 29th, 20th, third too.

Byron won the 2022 Martinsville spring race. He finished second in both stages and led the final 212 laps for the win. He also has six Top-8’s in his last eight Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth respectively in 2021 and a win in the spring race. My only concern is that he finished 23rd this past spring and has finished 21st or worse in four of his last six short track starts on the season too. But he may have enough points to not have to worry about that factor.

Hamlin was 5th in this race a year ago and 4th there this past spring. He’s also won five times at Martinsville, swept both stages last year in the Fall race and led 203 laps in the process. Last year’s test here between the spring and Fall races could have put him back on the right path. He has five straight Top-7 finishes on short track races on the season too including a runner-up in Richmond and win at Bristol in the last two.

Truex Jr. has won 3 of the last 8 there. The only ones that he didn’t win was the last three Fall races to where he led 129 laps in the Fall of 2020 and was fourth in 2021. He was third this past spring too.

Truex, has eight Top-5’s in his last 12 tries on the Virginia paperclip and on a track with a tight turning radius similar to Martinsville (LA Coliseum), he won. He also has two points paying wins and four Top-7 finishes in his last five short track starts this season.

Which is why this weekend is so crucial for the four below the cutline. It’s going to take a win and I don’t know if you trust either of them to win at Martinsville.