Eric Smith

5 things I’m now watching for Sunday’s South Point 400

Tires

I don’t think any of us initially expected tires to necessarily be an issue but after four separate instances of where tires had issues in practice on Saturday morning, here we are. Chase Elliott and Daniel Suarez each found the wall after problems with their Goodyear tires and had to go to a backup car as a result.

Kyle Larson and William Byron each pit after their practice runs and the team found significant wear on their tires too.

In saying that, some aren’t expecting much of a problem occurring in regards to tires on Sunday. Warmer temperatures and running later on compared to practice could make the track conditions vastly different.

Practice was run at 9:30 a.m. locally with the start of the race not beginning until 11:30 a.m. locally. Plus, with running with race day trim levels, you’re going to see way more off throttle time on a slicker track.

This morning was run with cooler temperatures and a cooler track which means more grip and more grip could lead to more tire wear over the course of a run.

That’s why despite Chevrolet being the culprit among the 3 manufacturers in practice having tire issues, they’re not too concerned.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 16: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, and Bubba Wallace, driver of the #45 McDonald’s Toyota, spin after an on-track incident during the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 16, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Aggressive Strategy?

In saying that, who gets aggressive on Sunday? The drivers that made it to this point are here for a reason and mostly because they weren’t as aggressive as others in some key moments during this postseason. Whether it’s not pushing the car to places it shouldn’t be in, or lifting in sketchy moments or even to a more conservative approach in air pressures, the key to advancing in this year’s playoffs was determined by playing it safe.

Now that we’re down to 8 drivers left, most are saying the aggression has to match the round. It’s time to ramp it up. You absolutely have to go for broke now. Being conservative won’t get you to the final four.

However, in a round to where you have to be perfect, how do you balance the aggression and perfection?

Being too aggressive on tire strategy could have a repeat of Texas last year and if a playoff driver now has that in this round, forget about making the Championship 4 without a win. However, not being aggressive and too conservative can force an elimination this round too because top 10’s are likely going to cut it.

So where’s the balance?

For a track where tires are going to be a subject line again, I’m curious to see how aggressive these 8 drivers truly are.

In this round, there’s really no margin for error if you want to take at least one of the wildcard spots. A bad start to the round Sunday in Vegas could be forcing a must-win at either Homestead or Martinsville.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 05: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Pennzoil Ford, leads the field during the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 05, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Can Ford’s Take It To HMS/Toyota?

It’s no secret, when you come to the four annual stops between Las Vegas and Kansas, you’re going to have to go through Hendrick Motorsports and Toyota’s in general if you want to win on these 1.5-mile tracks. They’re start 1-2-3-4 on Sunday and have 6 of the top 8 starters at that. However, can the Ford’s have a repeat of this race last season?

Ford drivers went 1-4 and led 85 of 267 laps that day. While they’d admit that these are not their strongest tracks, they’ve done what they had to do in these races to get by.

What happens this time around?

In last year’s playoff race it didn’t go like HMS and Toyota had thought that it would. HMS failed to lead a single lap. They went 11-13-21-35 in the race. Toyota did go 3-5-7 but led just 34 laps.

Which is why I’m wondering if the door is open.

What can Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher most notably do? Can they steal a win?

Blaney has eight Top-7 finishes in his last 13 starts in Vegas. His last two though were 28th and 13th. At Kansas this year, he finished 16th and 12th too.

Buescher was 27th and 15th at Kansas this year and 17th and 27th in his last two Vegas starts. They may need to do what they did in Texas in the last round and gobble up as many stage points as possible. Buescher starts fourth and Blaney in 12th.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 05: William Byron, driver of the #24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet, leads the field during the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 05, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

HMS vs. Toyota

Yes, HMS had tire problems in practice but they’re not fretting over that. They still qualified both of their playoff cars in the top 3. Is this their race to lose? Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota in general may have something to say about that. Christopher Bell is on the pole while Martin Truex Jr. starts 4th. Even the 23XI Racing duo rolls off in Row 4.

Still, that’s 6 of the top 8 starters belonging to these cars.

Toyota’s led 319 of 534 laps in the last two Kansas spring races and 177 of 535 in the Fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 164 of the same 534 laps in the pair of Kansas spring races and 262 of the 535 in the Fall.

In Kansas 1 in 2022, Toyota (171 of 267 laps led) went 1-3-4-5-6. HMS went 2-9-16-29 after leading 64 of 267 laps. In Kansas 1 this year, Toyota (148 of 267 laps led) went 1-4-8-9 while HMS (100 of 267 laps led) went 2-3-7-25.

For the last two Fall races, Toyota (94 of 267 laps led) went 1-2-3-5 and 1-2-8-14-32-36 (83 of 268 laps led). HMS went 4-6-8-11 (116 of 267 laps led) and 4-6-10-15 (146 of 268 laps led).

For Vegas, it’s just as good. The last two spring races, Toyota led 123 of 541 laps while HMS led 292 laps themselves.

In Vegas 1 of 2022, Toyota led 107 of 274 laps while HMS led 51. This past year, Toyota went 4-5-7-11 and led 16 of 271 laps but HMS led 241 of 271 in going 1-2-3 for the race, 1-2 in Stage 1 and 1-2-3 in Stage 2.

Combined, that’s 415 of 541 laps led in the spring Vegas races.

En fuego.

William Byron finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd in the last round and dominated this past spring here to the tune of sweeping both stages, leading 176 of 271 laps and winning. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished first, third, first, second, eighth, fourth, 15th and first respectively. He starts 3rd.

Kyle Larson has three consecutive Top-2 finishes in the spring race including a 2021 win at that and runner-up after 63 laps led this spring. Larson was also second in both stages as well. At Kansas, a like track, he was second and fourth respectively this season too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished in the Top-4 in five of the eight races but if not for a crash while battling for the lead at Texas after leading nearly 100 laps and the same in the spring race at Darlington, he’d be 7-for-8. He rolls off 2nd.

Denny Hamlin won the 2021 Fall race, was 11th this past spring and has four Top-5 finishes in his last six Vegas starts. Also, he has finished fourth, second, first, second in his four Kansas tries with the Next Gen and was fifth in the last round at Texas.

Christopher Bell has three of Top-10 finishes in his last four Vegas starts including a fifth place run this past spring too. It could be four straight if not for being an innocent bystander in the Kyle Larson vs. Bubba Wallace on track spat last October. Bell finished fourth in Stage 1 and was running up front when he was collected in their feud. On a like track at Kansas, Bell also was fifth and third last year and 36th and eighth this year. He was fourth in the last round at Texas. He has three Top-8 finishes in the last five races on the season. He starts on the pole.

Truex has 11 Top-8s’s in his last 12 Las Vegas starts and will roll off fourth. He was sixth and fifth respectively at Kansas last season and eighth and 36th this year. He’s had a Top-8 finish in four of the eight intermediate races this season too. My only concern is the fact that he’s not led a lap in any of the last seven races run and has finished 18th or worse in each too.

Wallace has had good cars on these tracks with two fourth place finishes in three starts on them this season. At Texas, he led over 100 laps, won the pole and had a top five car all day. He will come from 7th.

Reddick has three Top-10 finishes in his last four races here and starts alongside of Wallace in 8th. However, this car is also great on these tracks in the 45 winning three of the last four in Kansas including Reddick’s victory in Round 1.

Can Bell Turn Pole Into Race Win

Christopher Bell has now won 6 poles this season, 4 of which in the playoffs. He swept the entire first round in regards to poles. However, he’s not won a race in any of his previous 5 poles either.

This season, he finished 32nd in Fontana, 29th in Loudon, 13th in Michigan, 23rd in Darlington, 8th in Kansas and 3rd at Bristol from the pole. What can he do on Sunday?

4 of the last 5 races were won from the top 3 Rows. However, there’s only been 1 pole sitter to ever in in Vegas history (31 races). That was Kyle Busch back in 2009. 

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