TRACK: Las Vegas Motor Speedway (1.5-mile oval) DISTANCE: 267 Laps – STAGE 1: 80 Laps, Stage 2: 85 Laps, FINAL STAGE 102 LAPS, 400.5 Miles)

RACES’ HISTORY/TRENDS

This will be the 32nd time that the Cup Series has visited the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. 27 of those have come in March.

Vegas had become a track that has produced a ton of lead changes lately. While there were only 13 of them in the spring race, there were 18 or more in nine straight prior.

It has character with some bumps in the turns and has turned into a track that can reward pit strategy in the event you can take two tires later, or even gamble with fuel only. Nothing changes this year since nothing about the car, not the track, changed between last season and this.

Also, over the past five NASCAR Cup Series seasons, the spring race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a precursor to how the rest of the campaign will go. This is key for your futures bets.

In 2017, Martin Truex Jr. led 150 of the 267 laps in the Cup race en route to a dominating victory. He’d go on to win seven more times that season including the championship as well.

In 2018, Kevin Harvick won his first of eight trips to Victory Lane in the March race in Vegas as he led 214 laps that day. No one won as many races in 2018 as Harvick.

Joey Logano won the next two spring races and would march to fifth in the final standings at the end of the year in 2019 and the Championship 4 in 2020.

Kyle Larson won the 2021 spring race and won the title too later. The entire top six of the finishing order that spring took up six of the eight spots into the Round of 8 last postseason.

Last year, Alex Bowman beat Kyle Larson and both made the Round of 12. Larson had his car in the Final Four last year. Ross Chastain was third in the spring race and marched to his first Championship 4. William Byron was 5th and made the Round of 8.

This past spring, William Byron won the race (176 laps led) with Kyle Larson (63 laps led in second). HMS went 1-2-3 but third place finisher, Alex Bowman, isn’t in the postseason this year though. Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell and Kevin Harvick were the only other playoff drivers in the top 10 that day.

Stage 2 Success

Here’s a strange but true stat, the second stage winner at Vegas has won eight times, was runner-up last year and was fifth in another in 12 tries. 2020 was the only outlier when Chase Elliott swept both stages in the spring race but cut a tire in the end. Kurt Busch snuck up and stole a win in the Fall race. That’s 5 of the last 8 races this stage produced the race winner too.

Logano was second in both stages in this race last year. Byron swept both stages this past spring.

Youth Starting To Turn The Tide?

Joey Logano’s spring win in 2020 was the first time that a Cup winner was under the age of 30 in any of the previous races run at the track. Kyle Larson then won a year later and was 28 at the time. The last two springs, Alex Bowman was 29 in his spring race a year ago and William Byron being 25 this spring. win this past year giving us 4 of the last 7 winners being under the age of 30.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Trends:
• 4 of the last 5 races were won from the top 3 Rows.
• There’s only been 1 pole sitter to ever in in Vegas history (31 races). That was Kyle Busch back in 2009.

Six times has the winner of the 7th playoff race gone on to win the title later that season – 2007 Jimmie Johnson (Atlanta), 2011 Tony Stewart (Martinsville), 2016 – Jimmie Johnson (Martinsville), 2018 – Joey Logano (Martinsville), 2021 – Kyle Larson (Texas), 2022 – Joey Logano (Vegas). In fact, it’s happened 3 of the last 5 years at that.

• 21 of the last 26 Vegas races were won by a past champion. The only ones not? Carl Edwards (2008, 2011), Denny Hamlin (Fall 2021), Alex Bowman (Spring 2022) and William Byron (Spring 2023).
Also, Penske, SHR, HMS, JGR/Furniture Row have won the 16 of the last 17 Vegas races. The last non team of them to win other than Kurt Busch’s triumph with Chip Ganassi Racing in the 2020 Fall race? Roush/Fenway Racing (Carl Edwards) in 2011 was the other.

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Favorites

Kyle Larson (+450)

He has three consecutive Top-2 finishes in the spring race including a 2021 win at that and runner-up after 63 laps led this spring. Larson was also second in both stages as well. At Kansas, a like track, he was second and fourth respectively this season too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished in the Top-4 in five of the eight races but if not for a crash while battling for the lead at Texas after leading nearly 100 laps and the same in the spring race at Darlington, he’d be 7-for-8. He rolls off 2nd on Sunday.

William Byron (+550)

He dominated this past spring to the tune of sweeping both stages, leading 176 of 271 laps and winning. On top of that, Byron also finished seventh in the playoff race in 2019 and restarted the Spring race in 2020 on the front row before contact cut his tire on the overtime restart. He was eighth in the 2021 playoff race and placed fifth last spring too. He was third and 15th in the two Kansas races this season. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished first, third, first, second, eighth, fourth, 15th and first respectively. He enters this weekend having finished in the Top-2 in each of the last three races. He starts third on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin (+550)

Hamlin won the 2021 Fall race, was 11th this past spring and has four Top-5 finishes in his last six Vegas starts. Also, he has finished fourth, second, first, second in his four Kansas tries with the Next Gen and was fifth in the last round at Texas.

Martin Truex Jr. (+750)

Truex has 11 Top-8s’s in his last 12 Las Vegas starts and starts 4th on Sunday. He was sixth and fifth respectively at Kansas last season and eighth and 36th this year. He’s had a Top-8 finish in four of the eight intermediate races this season too. My only concern is the fact that he’s not led a lap in any of the last seven races run and has finished 18th or worse in each too.

Tyler Reddick (+750)

He has three Top-10 finishes in his last four races here. However, this car is also great on these tracks in the 45 winning three of the last four in Kansas including Reddick’s victory in Round 1. He will start 8th.

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Sleepers

Bubba Wallace (+2000)

He too has good cars on these tracks with two fourth place finishes in three starts on them this season. At Texas, he led over 100 laps, won the pole and had a top five car all day. He’ll now come from 7th on Sunday.

Ross Chastain (+2200)

Coming into the season, Chastain was a favorite here. That’s because Chastain won an Xfinity race for Ganassi here and was third last spring after leading 83 laps and runner-up last Fall after leading 68 more. On top of that, Chastain had finished seventh in both Kansas races last season as well. However, 12th in the spring race to go along with being fifth and 13th in Kansas this season gives me reason to maybe fade him. Then he went out and was quick in practice and qualified 10th.

Joey Logano (+3000)

He has 11 Top-10 finishes in his last 15 Vegas starts including a win last Fall, but was 36th this past spring. He did finish sixth and fifth in Kansas to give me reason of optimism. So does qualifying 9th.

Alex Bowman (+3500)

Four of his last six Vegas starts he had a Top-6 including a win and third place efforts in his last four spring races here. At Kansas, Bowman finished ninth, fourth 10th in his last three tries too. He starts 14th.

Erik Jones (+4500)

He finished eighth in the Fall race last year and while he crashed in the spring event a year ago, he was in the Top-5 at the end before that incident. He did just finish third in Kansas and had a top three car at Texas.

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Fades

Christopher Bell

Bell has three of Top-10 finishes in his last four Vegas starts including a fifth place run this past spring too. It could be four straight if not for being an innocent bystander in the Kyle Larson vs. Bubba Wallace on track spat last October. Bell finished fourth in Stage 1 and was running up front when he was collected in their feud. On a like track at Kansas, Bell also was fifth and third last year and 36th and eighth this year. He was fourth in the last round at Texas. He has three Top-8 finishes in the last five races on the season. He’s on the pole. However, pole winners are only 1-for-31 here and Bell is 0-for-5 when winning the pole this season.

Kyle Busch (+1300)

While this typically is a good track for him, it’s not been with RCR. He was 14th this past spring. At a like track in Kansas, Busch was also 35th and seventh respectively this year.

Ryan Blaney (+1300)

He has eight Top-7 finishes in his last 13 starts in Vegas. His last two though were 28th and 13th. At Kansas this year, he finished 16th and 12th too.

Chase Elliott (+1500)

Prior to a runner-up in the 2021 playoff race, Elliott had just two career top fives on this track with his last four finishes being 26th, 22nd, 13th and ninth respectively. He has six finishes of 21st or worse there too and was only 29th and 11th at Kansas last season, seventh and sixth this season and 21st in last year’s Vegas playoff race too.

Brad Keselowski (+1600)

He has a Top-10 finish in all but four starts at Vegas since Penske went to Ford’s in 2013. He won the Fall race in 2018. He was second and third respectively in 2019 and seventh and 13th in 2020, with a runner-up and seventh in 2021. Now he’s with his own team at RFK Racing and the speed hasn’t necessarily been there. He was 17th this past spring and 19th and ninth this season in Kansas too.