Among the 8 cars left, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have 5 of them. How many will they get to Phoenix with a shot at a championship?

2021 was a battle between these 2 with an all JGR/HMS final round.

Joe Gibbs Racing has 15 Championship 4 appearances. They’ve had a driver in the Championship 4 every year.

Hendrick Motorsports has had a driver in the final round in each of the last 3 years. Penske has had a final round driver in 2 of the last 3 but didn’t in 2019 or 2021 either.

In 5 of the last 7 years we’ve had teammates in the Championship 4

• 2016: JGR (Busch, Truex Jr.)
• 2018: JGR (Busch, Truex Jr.)
• 2019: JGR (Hamlin, Busch, Truex Jr.)
• 2020: Penske (Keselowski, Logano)
• 2021: JGR (Hamlin, Truex Jr.), HMS (Larson, Elliott)

This could become a battle between these two. Ford’s may struggle.

For the season, they’ve led just 1,939 total laps, lowest by over 1,000 compared to the other two manufacturers.

At Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta, they’ve combined to have led 806 of the 1,204 laps (66.9%). That’s most among the three manufacturers with Chevy leading 231 and Toyota 167.

It’s just that 41.5% of their overall laps (806 of 1,939) are on those tracks and we’re now finished racing at those places in 2023.

2 of the 3 races in this round are on intermediate tracks. Ford has led only 552 laps combined on them this season. Chevy has led 2,113 and Toyota 1,591.

In Vegas this past spring, Ford led 37 laps that day. Kansas is a similar track and Ford’s led 9 laps in the spring race and 27 in the playoff race in the opening round.

Really, if you look at laps led this postseason, Ford’s led 2, 27, 1, 5, 120 and 6. That 120 was at Talladega.

Which is impressive that they’ve pushed two cars forward into the Round of 8. The question now is, can they get at least one of them to the final round at Phoenix?

Martinsville may be the spot to do it at. They led 296 laps on the Virginia paperclip this spring. In fact, Ford’s have led 499 laps on short tracks this season. Toyota has led the most at 989 but Chevy trails Ford in this stat at 462.

That take 2 of the 8 away and leaves just 23XI Racing’s Toyota left.

For Vegas, it’s no secret, when you come to the four annual stops between there and Kansas, you’re going to have to go through Hendrick Motorsports and Toyota’s in general if you want to win on these 1.5-mile tracks.

Toyota’s led 319 of 534 laps in the last two Kansas spring races and 177 of 535 in the Fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 164 of the same 534 laps in the pair of Kansas spring races and 262 of the 535 in the Fall.

In Kansas 1 in 2022, Toyota (171 of 267 laps led) went 1-3-4-5-6. HMS went 2-9-16-29 after leading 64 of 267 laps. In Kansas 1 this year, Toyota (148 of 267 laps led) went 1-4-8-9 while HMS (100 of 267 laps led) went 2-3-7-25.

For the last two Fall races, Toyota (94 of 267 laps led) went 1-2-3-5 and 1-2-8-14-32-36 (83 of 268 laps led). HMS went 4-6-8-11 (116 of 267 laps led) and 4-6-10-15 (146 of 268 laps led).

For Vegas, it’s just as good. The last two spring races, Toyota led 123 of 541 laps while HMS led 292 laps themselves.

In Vegas 1 of 2022, Toyota led 107 of 274 laps while HMS led 51. This past year, Toyota went 4-5-7-11 and led 16 of 271 laps but HMS led 241 of 271 in going 1-2-3 for the race, 1-2 in Stage 1 and 1-2-3 in Stage 2.

Combined, that’s 415 of 541 laps led in the spring Vegas races.

En fuego.

Kyle Larson has 3 straight top 2 spring race finishes here and led 63 laps this spring. William Byron led 176 laps in his spring race win and was 3rd and 15th at Kansas.

Denny Hamlin has 4 top 5’s in his last 6 and was 4th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd in his last four at Kansas.

Martin Truex Jr. has 11 top 8’s in his last 12 in Vegas and 6th, 5th, 8th, 36th in Kansas.

Christopher Bell has 3 top 10’s in his last 4 in Vegas and was 5th this past spring.

Then it’s to Homestead. HMS swept both races on a like track at Darlington this year and won the last 2 at Homestead. Each with Larson and Byron. Larson has top 5’s in his last 7 including a dominating win last year. He also just won the Southern 500.

Hamlin has finished 1st, 11th, 7th in Homestead and had a shot to win the Southern 500 if not for a loose wheel.

Truex has 3 top 2’s in his last 5 at Darlington and Bell has just 1 top 10 in his last 3 Homestead starts but 6th, 5th, 14th, 23rd in his last four at Darlington.

For Martinsville, Larson was 2nd, 1st in his last 2. He has 2 short track wins in 2023. Byron has 6 top 8’s in his last 8. Hamlin was 5th and 4th in his last 2, Truex has 3 wins in his last 8 and Bell won this race last year.

Three times since 2016 did the #1 seed entering the playoffs win the championship. It happened in odd years at that – 2017, 2019, 2021….2023? They at least made the final round in all but one year (2020). Enter William Byron.

The second-place driver in playoff points made the final round in 4 of the 6 years too and all but one has at least made it to the Round of 8. Great stat for Martin Truex Jr..

The third-place driver made it literally every time. Phenomenal for Denny Hamlin.

Larson, Hamlin and Byron are easy Championship 4 picks. Bell I feel like will eventually need to win. Truex hasn’t led a lap in the last 7 races and has finished 18th or worse in all. Reddick, Buescher and Blaney feel like they’re playing with house money.

Still, Hamlin and Truex are the only drivers in their 40s left. They have all the experience with 15 combined Round of 8 appearances and 9 Final 4’s. They rest have 14 combined Round of 8’s and 2 Final 4’s.

Does that play a role in things?

What about Bell being the only driver left that was in the Final 4 last year?

The three oldest drivers (Truex, Hamlin, Larson) are the only ones to win titles.