Byron Asserts Himself As Favorite
The opening round was a tie between Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin as championship front runners. There was no hiding the fact that this was shaping up to be a Hamlin vs. Larson battle for the championship. Same as it was in 2021 too. Hamlin and Larson won 2 of the 3 opening round races. That season, Hamlin won the Southern 500 and Larson the Bristol Night Race. This year, it was the opposite.
Hamlin dominated the Southern 500 in sweeping both stages and leading 177 laps along the way. He thought he had a loose wheel towards the end and had to endure an unscheduled pit stop. That dropped him to 25th. In Kansas, he had the race won (63 laps led) until the final caution sending the race to overtime. He finished second. For Bristol, he led 142 of 500 laps and won.
382 laps led in the opening round gave him over 14,000 for his career now.
“It’s our year,” Hamlin said after scoring his 51st career NASCAR Cup Series victory. “I just feel like we’ve got it all put together. We’ve got the speed every single type of racetrack. Nothing to stop us at this point.”
For Larson, he did win Darlington, was fourth in Kansas and then runner-up in Bristol. He led 174 laps in that round too.
For the second round, it was William Byron asserting himself.
Byron finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd in this round and if you got back to Watkins Glen, he has an average finishing position of 5.25. He’s finished 1st, 8th, 4th, 15th, 9th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd in that span.
“We’ve got to keep it rolling,” he says. “I’d like to do one-two-two in the next round. That would be ideal, but keep performing where we want to be.”
As we enter the third round of the playoffs, these are the favorites to land 3 of the 4 spots into the Championship 4.
Truex Reeling But Still Dancing
Martin Truex Jr. is thanking his lucky stars that he had such a strong regular season to net him 36 playoff points. He’s had to lean on them in each of the first two rounds. He’s finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th, 18th, 20th this postseason. He’s led no laps. In fact, if you go back to the regular season finale at Daytona, he’s finished 18th or worse in all seven races.
With 9 wildcard spots available into the Round of 12 and 5 into the Round of 8, Truex had enough of a playoff point advantage to squeak by. But, there’s only one guaranteed wildcard spot to the final round this time. I don’t think he can just lean on those playoff points to get to Phoenix.
Which means he needs to start better. For Darlington, he finished 18th. For the Round of 12 opener at Texas, he was 17th.
Las Vegas is a better suited track for him. Truex has 11 Top-8s’s in his last 12 Las Vegas starts. He was sixth and fifth respectively at Kansas last season and eighth and 36th this year. He’s had a Top-8 finish in four of the eight intermediate races this season too.
Then it’s to Homestead to where he has 3 top 2 finishes in his last 5 and would have been 4 if not for an issue on his final pit stop a year ago.
Martinsville winds the Round of 8 down with Truex winning 3 of the last 8 there.
With 2 intermediate races and 1 on a short track, can Truex capitalize.
At one point, Truex was a 1.5-mile master. Among his first 19 race wins, 11 of them were on these tracks. 2 more were at Pocono and 1 at Fontana. He had just 1 win on a track that’s 1-mile in size or shorter and that was his first career win at Dover.
Over his last 14 races wins however, 10 of which were on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter. His only wins since the end of 2019 were 3 at Martinsville (2019, 2020, 2021), 2 at Richmond, 1 at Phoenix (2021), 1 at Dover (2023), 1 at Loudon (2023), 1 at Darlington and 1 at Sonoma.
Talladega Costs Keselowski, Chastain, Texas Costs Busch, Wallace
Brad Keselowski wishes he had that bump draft gone wrong in Talladega. Ross Chastain wishes luck was more on his side to avoid Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Kyle Busch in the same race. Kyle Busch wishes he just pit in Texas. Bubba Wallace wishes he had capitalized in the end at Texas.
It’s why all four drivers were eliminated in the second round.
Keselowski finished 7th at Texas and was +2 entering the ROVAL. Think if he had a top 10 at Talladega. He finished 32nd. That would have put him at least 15+ points ahead.
Busch was in the top 10 at Texas and third in the ROVAL. Take that last place finish due to a crash at Texas away?
Wallace led 111 laps in Texas from the pole but didn’t win. He led the final restart with 7 to go. Chastain was 2nd in Texas and 10th in the ROVAL. That Talladega crash…
Ford Gets 2 Cars By Still
Ford played the blueprint perfectly. They knew that they’d have a detriment at Texas as well as the ROVAL but knew if they could score stage points in Texas and capitalize at Talladega, they could get at least 1 driver and maybe 2 by to the Round of 8.
That’s exactly what happened. Chris Buescher and Ryan Blaney scored the top two stage points in Texas. Blaney won Talladega. Buescher got by.
Despite leading only 161 laps this postseason, 120 of which coming in Talladega, Buescher (RFK Racing) and Blaney (Team Penske) are still alive.
HMS/JGR vs. The Field
Among the 8 cars left, both Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing’s organizations have 5 of them left. How many will they get to Phoenix with a shot at a championship?
William Byron has finished 4th, 15th, 9th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd.
Kyle Larson has finished 1st, 4th, 2nd, 31st (led 99 laps), 15th, 13th.
Denny Hamlin has finished 25th, 2nd, 1st, 5th, 3rd, 37th.
Christopher Bell has finished 23rd, 8th, 3rd, 4th, 14th, 15th.
Martin Truex Jr. has finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th, 18th, 20th.
While the door is open for Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing), Chris Buescher (RFK Racing) and Ryan Blaney (Team Penske), can they capitalize?
2021 was a battle between these 2 with an all JGR/HMS final round.
Joe Gibbs Racing has 15 Championship 4 appearances. They’ve had a driver in the Championship 4 every year.
Hendrick Motorsports has had a driver in the final round in each of the last 3 years. Penske has had a final round driver in 2 of the last 3 but didn’t in 2019 or 2021 either.
However, Joey Logano with Penske had a similar route to Blaney has had this year. Blaney’s finished 9th, 12th, 22nd, 28th, 1st, 12th this postseason. Buescher and Reddick you get the feeling are playing with house money with these newer teams in this position.
Buescher has finished 3rd, 27th, 4th, 14th, 19th, 7th and Reddick 2nd, 1st, 15th, 25th, 16th, 6th.
Hendrick has won 2 playoff races thus far. JGR has won 1. 23XI Racing, Team Penske and Kaulig have won the others.
Among the playoff drivers left, only Truex, Buescher and Bell are winless.
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