Another Non Playoff Winner

AJ Allmendinger ended a string of 11 straight races won by a playoff driver on Sunday in Charlotte. Now, I think we get at least 1 more non playoff winner this round.

In each of the last 3 years a non-playoff driver won this round actually. Kyle Busch won at Texas in 2020. Alex Bowman won in Martinsville in 2021. Kyle Larson won at Homestead last year.

2 drivers that come to mind is Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick.

Elliott hasn’t gone winless in a year since his sophomore campaign in 2017. Harvick went winless just two years ago but in 2020 he won 9 races and a year ago 2. Can he really go winless in 2 of his final 3 seasons in the sport?

They’ve got 4 more chances with 3 of them being realistic. But, among those 3, really they each have 1 shot.

For Vegas, prior to a runner-up in the 2021 playoff race, Elliott had just two career top fives on this track with his last four finishes being 26th, 22nd, 13th and ninth respectively. He has six finishes of 21st or worse there too and was only 29th and 11th at Kansas last season, seventh and sixth this season and 21st in last year’s Vegas playoff race too.

Harvick has had three Top-4 finishes in a five-race span before being eighth, 10th, 20th, ninth, 12th, ninth in his last five. At Kansas though, Harvick was only 15th and 36th respectively a season ago too and 11th in both races this season. He is a great fantasy play (9th, 11th, 2nd, 11th, 10th, 19th, 11th, sixth) on intermediate tracks this season, but, not an outright winner.

Then it’s to Homestead. Elliott does have three Top-7’s in his last five Homestead starts, but he’s also winless here and Darlington too. He was fifth and 36th this past year at Darlington and 21st the last time out at Homestead.

Harvick meanwhile was only 26th in 2020 but rebounded to score a fifth-place run in 2021 and eighth last year. Harvick also has 14 Top-10 finishes in his last 15 Homestead starts including 18 of his last 20 when going back two decades ago. He was runner-up in the spring Darlington race and if not for bad luck with a caution while running second on pit road, he had a Top-2 going again in the Southern 500.

Finally for Martinsville, Elliott has finished 10th in each of his last 3 races there. Prior to that, he was 5th, 1st, 2nd, 16th.

Harvick had just two Top-5s in his last 22 Martinsville starts including 15th and 17th in 2020, ninth and 12th last year and 14th and 16th last year and 20th this spring.

---

Championship 4 Is Already Set

Right now, William Byron (+20), Martin Truex Jr. (+15), Denny Hamlin (+11) and Kyle Larson (+3) are each above the cutline coming into the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas. I think this will be the final four when we get to Phoenix next month.

Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are far too good at Las Vegas, Larson, Byron, Hamlin and Truex are favorites for Homestead and Martinsville is Martinsville.

I expect at least 2 of those 4 to win a race this round and the other 2 to be consistent enough to land at least 1 wildcard spot too.

Experience will now play a role. Truex and Hamlin have more Round of 8 appearances (15) then the other 6 drivers combined (14). They have 9 total Final Four’s with the rest having 2. Don’t think for a second that experience won’t matter in this round.

For Larson, he’s been here three times and won the title just two years ago. Wildly enough, he, Truex and Hamlin are the three oldest drivers left in the playoff race. Only Chris Buescher is the other driver older than 30 in the Round of 8.

So, for 3 of the 4 Final Round spots being taken by 3 of the 4 drivers left over 30 years of age, I expect experience to play a role this round.

---

Completely New Championship 4 Over Last Year

With Chase Elliott not in the drivers race this postseason and Ross Chastain (eliminated in Round of 12) and Joey Logano (eliminated in the Round of 16) already out of the playoffs, it just leaves Christopher Bell as the only member of last year’s Final Four left.

Bell enters this round -8 in points. However, I think this could be the end of the road for him. The Oklahoma native is going to eventually have to win and he’s currently riding a 24-race winless streak. In fact, his only win this season came on dirt. His last asphalt win came nearly a year ago in Martinsville.

While he’s finding more consistency, he’s only had 3 top 5 finishes in the last 24 race span as well.