Tyler Reddick (-2) is on the pole and in prime position to get max stage points this weekend. With being 2 points below the cutline entering and being among the best road racers in NASCAR today, I think they play it safe and score as many stage points as they possibly can.

Reddick’s last two ROVAL finishes were second and eighth respectively. A year ago on road courses, he had a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) to go along with being fifth (COTA) and seventh (Watkins Glen). This year, he’s finished first (COTA), 33rd (Sonoma), 28th (Chicago), fourth (Indy) and eighth (Watkins Glen) to accumulate the fourth most points (133). He’s only led at COTA though (1x for 41 laps).

Brad Keselowski (+2) is who he’s chasing and he’ll start 19th. Keselowski’s finished 13th or worse in 18 of his last 20 starts on these tracks. Which is why being 22nd in points scored (69) this season on them is no surprise. He’s finished 35th, 16th, 24th, 20th and 15th on them this season. Last year, he was 14th, 10th, 33rd, 20th, 19th and 14th respectively. Even in 2021 he went fifth, 19th, 15th, 13th, 35th, 24th and 20th respectively.

In saying that, this is what I expect Sunday’s race to look like. A split strategy between drivers needing points and those needing wins. With stage breaks back, it’s hard to go for points and the win. Stay out and get points and you’re going to get flipped to the back once the stage ends. Don’t get points, you’ll have track position at the beginning of the next stage.

Bubba Wallace (-9) starts 4th and isn’t a great road racer. He’ll most definitely try for points.

So, who wins the race then?

Just three non-Playoff drivers have won the sixth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs but none of which during this new playoff era in 2014. All five years of this race have been won by a playoff driver.

• Only once in 5 years has someone started in the top five and won. Chase Elliott started second in 2020. Christopher Bell was eighth a year ago.
• Four of the five race winners started in the top 10 though too.

My Top 5 For The Race

1. 8 Busch – Playoff driver. Good track position at the start with qualifying 5th. Needing win and not points. Busch was third a year ago, fourth the year prior and had three Top-5 finishes in as many races to start the road racing season off with including a pair of runner-ups. He was 36th at Indy but was in the top five before an issue. Watkins Glen they were just 14th. This car was runner-up in 2021. Busch has the sixth most points tabulated on road courses this season at 123.
2. 9 Elliott – People forget he’s in the playoffs. While it’s not the drivers race, it’s the owners. Elliott starts 8th. He’s won two of the last four ROVAL races, was sixth in the prior one and 12th in 2021 despite a run-in with Kevin Harvick and 20th last year. A year ago, Elliott also was fourth in COTA, eighth in Sonoma, second in Road America, 16th at Indy but lined on the front row for the second to last restart and fourth in Watkins Glen after leading the final restart. This year, he’s finished fifth (Sonoma), third (Chicago), second (Indianapolis) and 32nd (Watkins Glen). My only concern is the lack of speed this year. He’s led just eight laps on them.
3. 16 Allmendinger – He’s undefeated in the Xfinity Series here (4-0), was fourth in last year’s Cup race and fourth in the last road race of the season at Watkins Glen too. He’s scored the 13th most road course points (105) this season and led just once for two laps in the five races.
4. 20 Bell – Won last year, won the Daytona ROVAL in 2021 and was eighth on the Charlotte ROVAL in 2021 too. On road courses this season, he’s finished 31st, ninth, 18th, ninth and third. Bell has the eighth most road course points (121) scored in 2023 and just seven points shy of fifth best at that.
5. 54 Gibbs –  He’s finished ninth, 18th, ninth, 12th and fifth on road races this season. He’s P7 with 122 points scored on them too.

Who Advances To Round of 8

1. 12 Blaney – Already In
2. 24 Byron – Already In
3. 8 Busch – WINS Sunday
4. 11 Hamlin
5. 20 Bell
6. 17 Buescher
7. 19 Truex Jr.
8. 45 Reddick

OUT: Larson, Keselowski, Wallace, Chastain