Playoff driver Kyle Larson didn’t make a qualifying attempt in the first round on Saturday after hitting the Turn 8 wall in practice and going to a backup car for Sunday’s race. That could quite possibly be the reason that Larson is on the outside looking in for a Round of 8 spot on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte.

While same may think I’m crazy in the fact that Larson is +15 on the cutline, there’s a very real possibility that he could be out too.

If someone below the cutline wins and it’s not Tyler Reddick, then this could be an interesting scenario. Reddick is in a position to score max stage points. With needing points and being on the pole, there’s a scenario to where Reddick could gobble up at least 15 stage points on Sunday.

Reddick is on the pole. Reddick’s last two ROVAL finishes were second and eighth respectively. A year ago on road courses, he had a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) to go along with being fifth (COTA) and seventh (Watkins Glen). This year, he’s finished first (COTA), 33rd (Sonoma), 28th (Chicago), fourth (Indy) and eighth (Watkins Glen) to accumulate the fourth most points (133). He’s only led at COTA though (1x for 41 laps).

“I got lucky,” said Reddick, who was fastest in Group A in the opening round of qualifying at 103.207 mph. “I had one of my dirtiest laps I’ve ever had in practice. But this is exactly where we need to be on Saturday.

“I knew I had to go out and qualify here to give us some options.”

With Keselowski rolling off 19th and these being his worst tracks, what happens if someone like Kyle Busch wins?

Busch is facing a must-win and starts 5th. He was third a year ago, fourth the year prior and had three Top-5 finishes in as many races to start the road racing season off with including a pair of runner-ups. He was 36th at Indy but was in the top five before an issue. Watkins Glen they were just 14th. This car was runner-up in 2021. Busch has the sixth most points tabulated on road courses this season at 123.

Keselowski’s finished 13th or worse in 18 of his last 20 starts on these tracks. Which is why being 22nd in points scored (69) this season on them is no surprise. He’s finished 35th, 16th, 24th, 20th and 15th on them this season. Last year, he was 14th, 10th, 33rd, 20th, 19th and 14th respectively. Even in 2021 he went fifth, 19th, 15th, 13th, 35th, 24th and 20th respectively.

Buescher rolls off 20th and Larson in 36th. What happens if they don’t get any stage points in the process.

Fifteen points ahead of Reddick, Larson will start from the rear.

“I don’t think you can go for stage points from 40^th (actually 37^th),” Larson said of his race strategy. “The silver lining may be that you can short the stages (by pitting early) and get your track position that way to be up front at the end of the race. I think that would be the plan, I guess, going forward.”

Larson was only 26th in this race a year ago, 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too. Larson has led no laps and has the 10th most points scored in 2023 on these tracks. He’ll start 36th.

If Reddick scores enough points to get ahead of Larson and Busch wins, Larson could be out.