Can Anyone New Bump Their Ways In
Just three non-Playoff drivers have won the sixth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: Jeff Gordon (2005) won the Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway he was ranked 15th in the series standings at the time of the win. Clint Bowyer (2011) won the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway he was ranked 13th in the series standings at the time of the win. Jamie McMurray (2013) won the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway he was ranked 14th in the series standings at the time of the win.
As you can see, it hasn’t happened since the new format was adopted in 2014 and none of the previous three were at Charlotte on the ROVAL. So, that likely means the winner on Sunday will be among the 12 drivers left in the playoff field.
So, can anyone new bump their ways back in?
6 of the last 9 years have seen someone new bump their ways back in on the final race of the second round. Heading to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2022, William Byron was ranked 10th in the Playoff standings, 11 points back from the Round of 8 cutoff and Christopher Bell was ranked 11th, 33 points back in a must win situation. Bell would go on to win the race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course to advance to the Round of 8. Byron would finish the event 16th and advanced on points. Bell and Byron would knock Kyle Larson (35th-place finish at the Charlotte ROVAL) and Daniel Suarez (36th-place finish) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Larson was sixth in the Playoff standings up 18 points on the Round of 8 cutline and Suarez was ranked seventh in the Playoff standings, up 12 points on the Round of 8 cutoff.
In 2020, Kurt Busch (finished 4th) came from 5 points down (10th in points entering) to bump Austin Dillon (tied for final spot entering) out as Dillon finished 19th. That’s 2 of the 3 years here it happened.
Coming into Sunday’s elimination race: Tyler Reddick (-2), Ross Chastain (-9), Bubba Wallace (-9) and Kyle Busch (-26) are each below the cutline. Can they get back on the positive side or does their championship dreams end at Charlotte?
Tyler Reddick is on the pole. Reddick’s last two ROVAL finishes were second and eighth respectively. A year ago on road courses, he had a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) to go along with being fifth (COTA) and seventh (Watkins Glen). This year, he’s finished first (COTA), 33rd (Sonoma), 28th (Chicago), fourth (Indy) and eighth (Watkins Glen) to accumulate the fourth most points (133). He’s only led at COTA though (1x for 41 laps).
“I got lucky,” said Reddick, who was fastest in Group A in the opening round of qualifying at 103.207 mph. “I had one of my dirtiest laps I’ve ever had in practice. But this is exactly where we need to be on Saturday.
“I knew I had to go out and qualify here to give us some options.”
His teammate, Wallace (-9) starts 4th. These are not strong tracks for him but he can get plenty of stage points early.
Busch is facing a must-win and starts 5th. He was third a year ago, fourth the year prior and had three Top-5 finishes in as many races to start the road racing season off with including a pair of runner-ups. He was 36th at Indy but was in the top five before an issue. Watkins Glen they were just 14th. This car was runner-up in 2021. Busch has the sixth most points tabulated on road courses this season at 123.
This is why I feel like Chastain and Keselowski are in trouble. Chastain starts 12th but has struggled on these tracks this season.
Keselowski’s finished 13th or worse in 18 of his last 20 starts on these tracks. Which is why being 22nd in points scored (69) this season on them is no surprise. He’s finished 35th, 16th, 24th, 20th and 15th on them this season. Last year, he was 14th, 10th, 33rd, 20th, 19th and 14th respectively. Even in 2021 he went fifth, 19th, 15th, 13th, 35th, 24th and 20th respectively.
Buescher vs. Truex Jr. vs. Larson vs. Reddick
If someone below the cutline wins and it’s not Tyler Reddick, then this could be an interesting scenario. Reddick is in a position to score max stage points. With needing points and being on the pole, there’s a scenario to where Reddick could gobble up at least 15 stage points on Sunday.
With Keselowski rolling off 19th and these being his worst tracks, what happens if someone like Kyle Busch wins? What happens if Reddick scores 20 stage points? He’s only 15 points below Larson, 17 behind Truex Jr. and 19 behind Buescher.
Buescher rolls off 20th and Larson in 36th. What happens if they don’t get any stage points?
That could in theory put each in trouble. Think about it. A potential Busch win would push everyone down a spot. If Keselowski doesn’t get any stage points, he’d be out. But a Busch win would push 1 more out and if Reddick gets as many stage points as we think he can, it could come down do Buescher vs. Truex vs. Larson for it.
Larson was only 26th in this race a year ago, 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too. Larson has led no laps and has the 10th most points scored in 2023 on these tracks. He’ll start 36th.
“I don’t think you can go for stage points from 40th (actually 37th),” Larson said of his race strategy. “The silver lining may be that you can short the stages (by pitting early) and get your track position that way to be up front at the end of the race. I think that would be the plan, I guess, going forward.”
Truex Jr. has scored 135 road course points this season. That ranks third. He’s also led the third most laps (51). He’s finished 17th, first, 32nd, seventh, sixth on them this season. The bad? The 51 laps led were all in one race (Sonoma). Plus, last year, he finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th on them. Truex should have won the inaugural race here, was seventh in the two races after that but 29th and 17th gives me concern too. Also, in the playoffs, he’s finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th and 18th. He’s led no laps. In fact, if you go back to the regular season finale at Daytona, he’s finished 18th or worse in all six races.
Troubles
To get someone out, it’s more often than not taken an issue. Kyle Busch (40th place finish at Talladega, was +26) in 2014. Denny Hamlin (37th place at Talladega, was +18) in 2015. Martin Truex Jr. (40th place at Talladega due to engine, was +15 entering) in 2016. Same for Kyle Larson with an engine at Kansas in 2017. He was +29 entering. Brad Keselowski had a miserable day in Kansas in 2019 (5th in points, +9) and finished 19th.
So really no one is safe right now outside of William Byron (Texas winner) and Ryan Blaney (Talladega winner).
2014: Heading to Talladega (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2014, Matt Kenseth was ranked ninth in the Playoff standings, one point back from the Round of 8 cutoff and Brad Keselowski was ranked 10th in the Playoff standings, 19 points behind the Round of 8 cutoff. Brad Keselowski won the race at Talladega and automatically advanced to the next round. Matt Kenseth finished second at Talladega and advanced on points to the Round of 8 knocking Kasey Kahne (12th-place finish at Talladega) and Kyle Busch (40th-place finish at Talladega) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Kyle Busch was second in the Playoff standings 26 points above the cutline and Kasey Kahne was eighth in the Playoff standings just one point above the Round of 8 cutoff.
2015: Heading to Talladega (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2015, Kyle Busch was ranked ninth in the Playoff standings just six points back from the Round of 8 cutoff. Kyle Busch finished 11th at Talladega and advanced on points knocking his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin (37th-place finish at Talladega due to an incident) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Denny Hamlin was second in the Playoff standings, 18 points above the Round of 8 cutoff.
2016: Heading to Talladega (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2016, Denny Hamlin was ranked 10th in the Playoff standings, six points back from the Round of 8 cutoff. Hamlin went on to finish third at Talladega and advanced on points knocking Martin Truex Jr. (40th-place finish at Talladega due to an engine failure) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Martin Truex Jr. was sixth in the Playoff standings, 13 points above the Round of 8 cutoff.
2017: Heading to Kansas (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2017, Kyle Busch was ranked ninth in the Playoff standings, seven points back from the Round of 8 cutoff. Busch went on to finish 10th at Kansas and advanced on points knocking Kyle Larson (39th-place finish at Kansas due to an engine failure) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Kyle Larson was third in the Playoff standings, 29 points above the Round of 8 cutoff.
2018: The four drivers below the Round of 8 cutline heading into the sixth race of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at Kansas Speedway – Brad Keselowski (-1 point from cutoff), Ryan Blaney (-5), Kyle Larson (-19) and Alex Bowman (-51) – all failed to advance to the Round of 8 and were eliminated from the Playoffs following the Kansas race. At Kansas, Larson finished third, Keselowski finished sixth, Blaney finished seventh and Bowman finished ninth.
2019: Heading to Kansas Speedway (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2019, Chase Elliott was ranked 10th in the Playoff standings, 15 points back from the Round of 8 cutoff. Elliott went on to finish second at Kansas and advanced on points knocking Brad Keselowski (19th-place finish at Kansas) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Keselowski was fifth in the Playoff standings, nine points above the Round of 8 cutoff.
2020: Heading to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course (sixth race of the Playoffs) in 2020, Kurt Busch was ranked 10th in the Playoff standings, five points back from the Round of 8 cutoff. Kurt Busch went on to finish fourth in the Charlotte Road Course race and advanced on points knocking Austin Dillon (19th-place finish at the Charlotte ROVAL) out of the Playoffs. Heading into the elimination race, Dillon was eighth in the Playoff standings tied with Kyle Busch (ninth) on points (3,053 each) along the Round of 8 cutline.
2021: The four drivers below the Round of 8 cutline heading into the sixth race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course – Kevin Harvick (-9 points from cutoff), Christopher Bell (-28), William Byron (-44) and Alex Bowman (-52) – all failed to advance to the Round of 8 and were eliminated from the Playoffs following the Charlotte ROVAL race. At the Charlotte Road Course, Harvick finished 33rd, Bell finished eighth, Byron finished 11th and Bowman finished 10th.
The largest margin someone made up without winning though was 19 points. Christopher Bell (-45) had a walk off win last year.
Strategy With Stage Breaks Back
As the second round comes to a close, I’m watching strategy plays on Sunday. With cautions for stage breaks back and several drivers needing wins, how do these teams treat Sunday’s race? You can’t just play follow the leader as some teams are going to have to swing for the fences. By doing, it could make this race look strung out even with stage cautions back.
This year, the fastest cars won since the stage break cautions didn’t fly. 4 of the 5 road races were won by drivers leading the most laps. In 5 of the 6 road courses run last year, the only laps led by the eventual winner all occurred in the final stage. It was the opposite.
That had changed this year because of this new rule of not stopping at stages. You can stay out front.
Do teams short pit or long pit? Do you do the overcut or undercut? Can you pit with clean air in front of you entering and in front of you exiting. In and out laps were key too.
Strategy was open again and I loved it.
As a result, 4 of the 5 race winners started in the top 3. The furthest back was 8th.
Now, it’s gone. The only strategy is who pits before stages and who doesn’t.
Last year, none of the road course races saw a driver that had won finish in points in Stage 1. This year, they’ve finished 23rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd.
In Stage 2 a season ago, they finished: 8th (COTA), 4th (Sonoma), 10th (Road America), no points (Indy) and 8th (Watkins Glen), no points (ROVAL). This year in Stage 2: 1st (COTA), 7th (Sonoma), 3rd (Chicago), 2nd (Indy) and 1st (Watkins Glen).
See how much it’s changed?
Last year and before, it was becoming the norm for teams to elect to pit right before the stage would end to give up points for track position. They automatically knew when two cautions would fly so would plan accordingly. It took the strategy aspect out of these races.
Now, they know when two cautions are going to fly.
With really 8 of the 12 drivers going for points on Sunday and still being able to make the next round on points, who takes points for the stages but maybe puts themselves in the pack to potentially take a win away?
That’s the strategy play to watch now. If you feel like you don’t have a race winning car, you may go for points instead and hope no one new wins to knock you back out. I mean with points meaning something, it’s hard to not take them when they’re on the table either. But, if that means you can’t win the race, then that too could be a detriment.
Christopher Bell a year ago swung for the fences last year by giving up track position for new tires. He’d restart 11th. He made up all 11 spots to win in the process for the walk off win.
Someone has to use strategy on Sunday or this race may still be straightforward.
Chaos or Clean Race?
History shows that we can expect some sort of chaos during Sunday’s race. We’ve seen it happen in all 5 years so far. On the final lap of the inaugural race, Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. made contact with one another on the final lap, in the final corner, while running 1-2. It allowed 3rd place Ryan Blaney to sneak by and pull the upset victory.
A year later, it was Bubba Wallace and Alex Bowman having a confrontation on track and after the race as well. 2021 it was the Kevin Harvick vs. Chase Elliott feud here.
Last year, with 8 to go, Chase Elliott was going to win and Chase Briscoe was going to bump his way in and take Daniel Suarez out in the process. However, that debris caution Lap 103 changed the entire complexity of not just this race, but how this championship fight would transpire.
Christopher Bell went from nowhere to a walk off victory to advance to the Round of 8 via an upset win on the Charlotte ROVAL. That plus Austin Cindric being spun by Erik Jones in the bus stop coming to the white flag, Briscoe rebounding being spun by Austin Dillon on the bus stop a few laps prior and Kyle Larson’s toe link being broke allowed Bell and Briscoe to bump their ways in and Larson and Suarez to fall out.
What happens this time around in the 6th edition? Will the restart zone spread things out some and calamity corner doesn’t end up striking?
I don’t necessarily think chaos has to occur for playoff driver on playoff driver crime either. I mean there’s a very real chance that the final spot into the next round could come down to a position or 2 on track. If you’re that driver needing to gain a few spots and there’s a couple of cars within striking distance in front, don’t you get the sense that you move them out of your way now and apologize later?
However, can they get to them?
Just because we have stage breaks back again doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t be a clean race either. Be careful what you ask for here. The first 104 laps of last year’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 was as tame as an elimination race could possibly be. The debris caution with seven laps left changed thing.
Without cautions for stage breaks this season, Indy had just 1 caution for 3 laps. Watkins Glen had 1 for 4 laps. Last year, until inside of 10 laps-to-go, we had just two cautions and both were for stage break and it didn’t spice up the show.
Which is why I feel this race could go either way. Points are too valuable to risk damage from ruffling feathers but you can’t risk not to move someone out of the way with points at a premium.
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