Eric Smith

5 favorites, 5 sleepers, 5 fades for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400

TRACK: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL (2.28 mile ROVAL) DISTANCE: 109 Laps — STAGE 1: 25 Laps, STAGE 2: 25 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 59 Laps, MILES (248.520 Miles)

  • Only once in 5 years has someone started in the top five and won. Chase Elliott started second in 2020. Christopher Bell was eighth a year ago.
  • Four of the five race winners started in the top 10 though too.
  • Starting spots on road courses last season: 16th (COTA), 8th (Sonoma), 4th (Road America), 1st (Indy), 2nd (Watkins Glen), 8th (ROVAL).
  • Starting sports on road courses this season:  2nd (COTA), 8th (Sonoma), 3rd (Chicago), 1st (Indy), 2nd (Watkins Glen).
  • The 4 years this race has occurred, the winner finished in the top 2 in 3 of the 4 second stages. Ryan Blaney won the second stage in 2018, Elliott won it in 2019 and he was second in 2020 while Kyle Larson was 6th last year.
  • The first stage, Blaney was 10th in 2018, Elliott was ninth in 2019 and he didn’t get a top 10 in 2020 while Larson and Bell didn’t get one the last two years.
  • Also last year, none of the road course races saw a driver that had won finish in points in Stage 1.
  • In Stage 2, they finished: 8th (COTA), 4th (Sonoma), 10th (Road America), no points (Indy) and 8th (Watkins Glen), no points (ROVAL).
  • This year, eventual winners finished in Stage 1: 23rd (COTA), 2nd (Sonoma), 3rd (Nashville), 1st (Indy) and 2nd (Watkins Glen).
  • In Stage 2: 1st (COTA), 7th (Sonoma), 3rd (Chicago), 2nd (Indy) and 1st (Watkins Glen).
  • In 5 of the 6 road courses run last year, the only laps led by the eventual winner all occurred in the final stage. However, they dominated that final stage too as 3 of the 6 road courses this season were won by a driver that also led the most laps.
  • This year, 4 of the 5 road races were won by drivers leading the most laps.
  • Just three non-Playoff drivers have won the sixth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs:
  • Jeff Gordon (2005) won the Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway he was ranked 15th in the series standings at the time of the win.
  • Clint Bowyer (2011) won the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway he was ranked 13th in the series standings at the time of the win.
  • Jamie McMurray (2013) won the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway he was ranked 14th in the series standings at the time of the win.
  • As you can see, it hasn’t happened since the new format was adopted in 2014 and none of the previous three were at Charlotte on the ROVAL. So, that likely means the winner on Sunday will be among the 12 drivers left in the playoff field.
  • 5 of the last 9 years have seen someone new bump their ways back in on the final race of the second round. Despite that, the largest margin someone made up without winning though was 19 points. Bell was 33 points down last year but he won.
  • Chevrolet is 2-for-5 on the season on the road courses this season. By comparison, Chevy went 5-for-6 last year on road courses and had won the final six road races in 2021 too.
  • We know Ford’s were lagging on these tracks. They led four laps in COTA, two in Sonoma, none in Chicago but 54 in Indianapolis (all by Michael McDowell). However, they came back down to earth in Watkins Glen with 17 laps led (all by McDowell).
  • Chevy led 29 of 75 laps in COTA, 25 of 110 in Sonoma, 32 of 78 in Chicago, 7 at Indy and 70 in Watkins Glen. Toyota’s by comparison led 42 of 75 in COTA, 84 of 110 in Sonoma, 46 of 78 in Chicago, 9 in Indy and 3 in Watkins Glen. So, who has the leg up between them?
  • Don’t expect a lot of cautions. Indy had 1 for 3 laps and Watkins Glen 1 for 4 laps. The first 104 laps last year had just 2 cautions, both only for stage breaks.

Favorites

Chase Elliott (+600)

He’s won two of the last four ROVAL races, was sixth in the prior one and 12th in 2021 despite a run-in with Kevin Harvick and 20th last year. A year ago, Elliott also was fourth in COTA, eighth in Sonoma, second in Road America, 16th at Indy but lined on the front row for the second to last restart and fourth in Watkins Glen after leading the final restart. This year, he’s finished fifth (Sonoma), third (Chicago), second (Indianapolis) and 32nd (Watkins Glen). My only concern is the lack of speed this year. He’s led just eight laps on them. However, those are short lived with Elliott starting 8th on Sunday.

William Byron (+650)

16th a year ago but was sixth, sixth and 11th in his three prior starts. He just won at Watkins Glen and was fifth earlier this season in COTA. He was solid in being 14th, 13th, 14th in the other three road races. Byron has scored the most points on road courses (154) this season and has led two races for 94 laps. He’ll start 14th.

Tyler Reddick (+700)

The pole sitters’ last two ROVAL finishes were second and eighth respectively. A year ago on road courses, he had a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) to go along with being fifth (COTA) and seventh (Watkins Glen). This year, he’s finished first (COTA), 33rd (Sonoma), 28th (Chicago), fourth (Indy) and eighth (Watkins Glen) to accumulate the fourth most points (133). He’s only led at COTA though (1x for 41 laps).

Michael McDowell (+900)

A road racer by nature has four Top-10’s on them last season. This year, he’s finished 12th, seventh, seventh, first and 36th. That 36th came from the pole to where he had problems with a fast car. He’s led all the Ford laps in the last two road races on the season too and has led at least one lap in three of the five. His 142 points accumulated ranks second most among all drivers this season. He starts 13th.

AJ Allmendinger (+1000)

He’s undefeated in the Xfinity Series here (4-0), was fourth in last year’s Cup race and fourth in the last road race of the season at Watkins Glen too. He’s scored the 13th most road course points (105) this season and led just once for two laps in the five races. He’ll roll off sixth.

CONCORD, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 09: Christopher Bell, driver of the #20 DeWalt Toyota, celebrates with a burnout after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 09, 2022 in Concord, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1600)

Third a year ago, fourth the year prior and had three Top-5 finishes in as many races to start the road racing season off with including a pair of runner-ups. He was 36th at Indy but was in the top five before an issue. Watkins Glen they were just 14th. This car was runner-up in 2021. Busch has the sixth most points tabulated on road courses this season at 123. He starts 5th.

Christopher Bell (+1800)

Won last year, won the Daytona ROVAL in 2021 and was eighth on the Charlotte ROVAL in 2021 too. On road courses this season, he’s finished 31st, ninth, 18th, ninth and third. Bell has the eighth most road course points (121) scored in 2023 and just seven points shy of fifth best at that. He starts on the front row in 2nd.

Ty Gibbs (+2000)

Worth the risk. he’s finished ninth, 18th, ninth, 12th and fifth on road races this season. He’s P7 with 122 points scored on them too. He starts 10th.

Joey Logano (+2800)

While he was 18th a year ago, he had a Top-10 finish in the previous four races here including a runner-up in 2020. On road races in 2023, he’s finished 28th, third, eighth, third, fourth, 10th. May be a better fantasy play because he’s led just one lap all season on road courses and has the 19th most points (82). I can see them punting on this weekend and trying to not only help Ryan Blaney, but focus for 2024 as well.

Alex Bowman (+3500)

He missed last year but was fourth, second, eighth and 10th respectively in his four ROVAL tries. He also has a pair of Top-5 finishes on road courses this season too which has helped him with being the ninth best point scorer on road courses in 2023. However, 15th (Sonoma), 37th (Chicago) and 23rd (Watkins Glen) and no laps led also makes me somewhat leery.

CONCORD, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 09: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, drives during the NASCAR Cup Series Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 09, 2022 in Concord, North Carolina. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

Who To Fade?

Kyle Larson (+900)

Only 26th in this race a year ago, 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too. Larson has led no laps and has the 10th most points scored in 2023 on these tracks. He’ll start 36th.

Martin Truex Jr.(+1200)

The good? 135 points scored on these tracks in 2023. That ranks third. He’s also led the third most laps (51). He’s finished 17th, first, 32nd, seventh, sixth on them this season. The bad? The 51 laps led were all in one race (Sonoma). Plus, last year, he finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th on them. Truex should have won the inaugural race here, was seventh in the two races after that but 29th and 17th gives me concern too. Also, in the playoffs, he’s finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th and 18th. He’s led no laps. In fact, if you go back to the regular season finale at Daytona, he’s finished 18th or worse in all six races.

Denny Hamlin (+1800)

He’s finished 12th, 19th, 15th, fifth and 13th here. On the season, he’s came home 16th, 36th, 11th, 19th, and second. Last year, he was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th. Hamlin has the 12th most points (112) but fourth most laps led (44) this season. He’s led laps in three of the five races.

Daniel Suarez (+1800)

Yes, he starts 3rd. However, Suarez was also 36th a year ago and 27th, 22nd, 27th, third, 22nd on them this year.

Ryan Blaney (+2800)

Won the inaugural race and followed that up with being eighth, fifth, ninth and 26th after. On road races this season, he’s finished 21st, 31st, 33rd, 13th and ninth. He sits 20th with 74 points scored this season.

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