Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway will once again be an elimination race. As we sit, three drivers have locked themselves into the Round of 8, two of which via wins (Justin Allgaier, John Hunter Nemechek) and one from points (Cole Custer). 5 spots remain for 9 drivers.

Austin Hill (+44), Chandler Smith (+32), Sammy Smith (+18), Sheldon Creed (+9) and Daniel Hemric (+1) are on the good side of the cutline. Parker Kligerman (-1), Jeb Burton (-19), Josh Berry (-27) and Sam Mayer (-34) are below.

Will there be any movement on this front?

Luckily for these drivers, AJ Allmendinger isn’t here. He’s running the Cup Series race on Sunday as a full-time driver. As a result of that, he’s not eligible to race on Saturday.

Chase Briscoe won the inaugural race here in 2018 but Allmendinger has gone 4-for-4 since. Which sets up a new driver to win.

Mayer has to be the favorite. He’s scored the most points (254) on road courses this season with a pair of wins (Road America, Watkins Glen) to go along with 4 top five finishes and 6 top 10’s in 7 races on them. He’s finished 10th and 11th respectively in this race too.

However, he’s also reeling right now. While he had a stretch of 5 straight top 5 finishes including 4 of which in the top 2, he’s came home 19th, 11th, 37th, 35th, 38th since. In saying that, his road course finishes this season have been 7th, 3rd, 10th, 18th, 1st, 2nd, 1st.

Kligerman may be another one to watch. Just 1 point separates he and Hemric but Kligerman has scored the 4th most points on road courses (194) with finishes of 31st, 14th, 5th, 9th, 2nd, 7th, 3rd on them. He’s also had 8 top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts on the season too including finishing 3rd, 4th, 24th, 4th, 31st, 2nd in the last six.

Hemric has finished 10th, 3rd, 3rd, 17th here but on road courses this season has seen him finish 6th, 33rd, 13th, 7th, 11th, 27th, 23rd. He’s finished in the top 10 in 3 of the last 5 races but 2 of the last 3 have seen him come home 24th or worse too. He was runner-up at Bristol though and seeking a return to the Round of 8.

Can he stave off Kligerman and can both keep Mayer back?

Sheldon Creed is 8 points clear of Hemric and has the third most (208) road course points tabulated. He was 9th at COTA, 7th at Portland, 11th in Sonoma, 11th on the Chicago street course, 26th in Road America, 8th on the Indy road course and 2nd in Watkins Glen. He also has 6 top 8 finishes in the last 7 races on the season with a worst result in this timeframe being 11th at Bristol.

The thing is, Creed is 0-for-65, Kligerman is 0-for-84 and Hemric 1-for-181. Can they score a walk off win on Saturday?

It may sway to the drivers not needing a win as they can give up stage points for track position.

Allgaier has 245 points scored on road courses (2nd most) with finishes of 5th, 2nd, 7th, 3rd, 18th, 5th, 16th on them. He’s won 2 of the last 5 races and could be 3 if not for a late race dust-up at Texas. He’s led 243 laps this postseason (110 in Bristol, 133 at Texas) and taken stage finishes of 2nd, 1st in Bristol and 1st, 1st at Texas. He’s finished 15th, 4th, 23rd, 9th, 5th here.

Custer was 32nd, 1st, 6th, 1st, 30th, 6th, 7th on these tracks and 7th and 8th in his pair of NXS starts here.

Nemechek may struggle despite having finished 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 1st in the last four races. He was 7th in 2019 here, 27th in COTA this year, 19th at Portland, 16th at Sonoma, 2nd in Chicago, 34th in Road America, 13 at Indy and 6th at Watkins Glen.

As far as the rest?

Austin Hill could use a win but may just need to play it safe. He’s struggled on this track (36th, 18th, 29th) but has been better on road courses in 203 with the 5th most points. He was 37th, 5th, 8th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 14th on them. He’s also had 3 top 7 finishes in the last 4 races on the season too.

Both Smith’s just need to play it safe too.

Burton is facing a tall task while Berry could be a shock early round exit.

He’s finished 36th and 27th in the playoffs and has been 14th or worse in 7 of his 9 starts on the season. On road courses, Berry has results of 8th, 4th, 33rd, 23rd, 6th, 14th, 20th. He’s also winless on the season.