Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. were each on upset alert entering this Round of 12. Talladega was going to likely be the place to what caused them to potentially miss out on advancing past the second round. However, after how Sunday’s YellaWood 500 shaped up, they may have dodge a bullet.

Even with result of 15th (Larson) and 18th (Truex Jr.), they’re now in a great position to advance to the Round of 8. Truex is +17 and Larson +15 heading to the elimination race at the Charlotte ROVAL.

Larson had a clean race going actually until the final lap for which he found danger at Talladega…again.

He’s only 1-for-41 for top 5’s on superspeedway’s though and knowing that and gaining double digit points on Sunday on a track like that has to also feel like a win for him.

Same for Truex. He’s had just three top five finishes at Talladega since 2007. His last 13 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th, 27th, 18th respectively. On top of that, out of 105 drafting track starts between Daytona, Talladega and the four races at Atlanta with the new configuration, Truex has no wins.

He came out unscathed. 

“We were stuck on the bottom there in the end, I think with three to go we were up to 10th or 12th and three laps later we were 19th,” said Truex. “Nowhere to make any moves, just everything was clogged and you just kind of rode there and got what you could. Tough day, but I think we are in good shape going to the Roval.”

The good for Truex? 135 points scored on these tracks in 2023. That ranks third. He’s also led the third most laps (51). He’s finished 17th, first, 32nd, seventh, sixth on them this season.

The bad? The 51 laps led were all in one race (Sonoma). Plus, last year, he finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th on them. Truex should have won the inaugural race here, was 7th in the two races after that but 29th and 17th gives me concern too.

Also, in the playoffs, he’s finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th, 18th. He’s led no laps. In fact, if you go back to the regular season finale at Daytona, he’s finished 18th or worse in all six races.

Larson though has shown speed. He’s had fast race cars during the postseason in leading 274 laps so far including 55 in his Southern 500 win, 99 in a fourth-place results in Kansas, 20 in a runner-up at Bristol, 99 in a late race crash at Texas while battling for the win and one in Talladega.

He’s only 1-for-41 for top 5’s on superspeedway’s though and knowing that and gaining double digit points on Sunday on a track like that has to also feel like a win for him.

For the ROVAL, he won in 2021 but was just 26th a year ago. He’s finished 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too. He’s also led no laps on these tracks and has the 10th most points scored on road courses in 2023.

Still, maybe he’s got just enough points to advance on. After all, that’s really all Larson and Truex need to go for on Sunday and that’s stage points.

With stoppages for stage breaks again, why not just play it safe and take the points.

That’s because Brad Keselowski’s position in the standings – thanks in part to his sixth stage win (stage 2) of the season –  is remarkable considering his tough luck day at Talladega. He was among the eight cars collected in Talladega’s “Big One” with 25 laps remaining that brought out a nearly 10-minute red flag for clean-up.

He’s only +2 heading to what has been among his worst tracks now. He’s finished 35th, 16th, 24th, 20th and 15th on them this season. Last year, he was 14th, 10th, 33rd, 20th, 19th and 14th respectively. Even in 2021 he went fifth, 19th, 15th, 13th, 35th, 24th and 20th respectively.

He’s finished 13th or worse in 18 of his last 20 starts on these tracks. Which is why being 22nd in points scored (69) this season on them is no surprise and why he’s on upset alert.

Tyler Reddick (-2) could easily point his way in. Reddick’s last two ROVAL finishes were second and eighth respectively. A year ago on road courses, he had a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) to go along with being fifth (COTA) and seventh (Watkins Glen). This year, he’s finished first (COTA), 33rd (Sonoma), 28th (Chicago), fourth (Indy) and eighth (Watkins Glen) to accumulate the fourth most points (133). He’s only led at COTA though (1x for 41 laps).

His teammate Bubba Wallace (-9) and Ross Chastain (-10) could be like Keselowski in trouble too.

Wallace has finished 37th, 17th, 31st, 18th, 12th on road courses this season but was seventh here last year. Wallace has 70 points on road courses this year which ranks him 21st.

Chastain was 37th last year and fourth, 10th, 22nd, 17th, 18th on road courses this year. He’s led just one single lap on road courses all season and sits 11th in points (113) on them.

It may actually be Kyle Busch (-26) in the best scenario on a walk off win just as former JGR teammate Christopher Bell did last year.

Busch was third a year ago on the ROVAL, fourth the year prior and had three Top-5 finishes in as many races to start the road racing season off with including a pair of runner-ups. He was 36th at Indy but was in the top five before an issue. Watkins Glen they were just 14th. This car was runner-up in 2021. Busch has the sixth most points tabulated on road courses this season at 123 and needs a win.

If Busch wins, can Reddick make up 15 points on Larson or 17 on Truex? That’s why the 2-point gap between Truex and Larson is something to watch too.