The field is set for Sunday’s penultimate race of the Round of 12. This one is the ultimate wildcard at the Talladega Superspeedway.

• Round of 8 Spot On The Line – William Byron won last week’s second round opener at Texas. Just once in this format (2015) did someone win the first two races of the round. However, expect a playoff driver to win on Sunday though. Since the win-and-your-in format was introduced in 2014, 8 of the 9 playoff races at Talladega were won from a playoff eligible driver. 6 times has a non playoff driver won this Talladega race but only once since 2014. On top of that, only 3 times has a non playoff driver won the 5th playoff race. Just once since 2014 too. That was Bubba Wallace’s win here in 2021. Outside of that, it’s been all playoff drivers. Ironically enough, 6 of the 9 winners of this race since 2014 was 7th or worse in the standings. Brad Keselowski was 10th in 2014, Logano won already in the round in 2015, Logano was 8th in 2016, Keselowski 10th in 2017, Aric Almirola 9th in 2018, Ryan Blaney 12th in 2019, Denny Hamlin 2nd in 2020, Bubba Wallace 22nd in 2021 and Chase Elliott 7th last year.
• 4 drivers are below the cutline right now: Bubba Wallace (-2), Tyler Reddick (-3), Ryan Blaney (-11) and Kyle Busch (-17). 3 of the 4 have won here recently. Wallace, Blaney and Busch have combined to have won half of the last 8 races on the 2.66-mile Alabama superspeedway. Denny Hamlin (+37), Chris Buescher (+22), Christopher Bell (+20), Martin Truex Jr. (+19), Ross Chastain (+12), Brad Keselowski (+8) and Kyle Larson (+2) are on the positive side of the cutline. Does anyone get bumped out on Sunday?
  • The only playoff drivers to have not won here since 2019 are Byron, Buescher, Bell, Truex Jr., Larson and Reddick. Buescher and Byron though won the last two superspeedway races on the season. Byron in Atlanta and Buescher at Daytona. That leaves Bell, Truex, Larson and Reddick in danger. Neither are particularly good here either.
• Stage points are crucial on Sunday but how much is the risk vs. the reward? Track position is key but if you get caught up in a crash early, you not only not get stage points, but you’re finishing in the back too losing crucial points in the process. However, if you don’t get points and chaos doesn’t happen, you too could lose crucial points.
• 7 straight years now a driver scored their 1st or 2nd career superspeedway win at Talladega. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. started it in the Spring of 2017 (1st career win), followed by Aric Almirola in the Fall of 2018 (2nd career win), Chase Elliott in the Spring of 2019 (1st superspeedway win), then Ryan Blaney did so in the Fall of 2019 (1st superspeedway win) and Spring 2020 (2nd superspeedway win) race while Bubba Wallace (1st career win) did it in Fall of 2021 and Chastain (1st superspeedway win, 2nd career win) and Elliott (2nd superspeedway win) last year. Kyle Busch won this spring and he has multiple superspeedway wins, so does that open up for a 1st or 2nd winner on Sunday?
• 1st Time Winner? Wallace in 2021 was the 12th driver to pick up his 1st career win at Talladega joining Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2017), Brad Keselowski (2009), Brian Vickers (2006), Ken Schrader (1988), Phil Parsons (1988), Davey Allison (1987), Bobby Hillin Jr. (1986), Ron Bouchard (1981), Lennie Pond (1978), Dick Brooks (1973) and Richard Brickhouse (1969).
• Only 2 pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 37 Cup races at Talladega. Those are the only 2 front row starters to win since the playoff race of 2011 (24 races). Previously, 5 of the 13 races before were won by front row starters. On top of that, only 1 Daytona pole winner has won there since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016) too.
• Ford had won 11 of 14 races then Chevy has gone out to win 3 straight now. However, Toyota has won 2 of the last 3 Fall races but has only won 3 times in the last 28 races overall. 2 of which were won by Denny Hamlin.
  • Ford has dominated laps led this season on tracks.
    • They led 122 of 212 in Daytona 500 and 110 of 163 laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.
    • They led 88 of 196 in Talladega
    • They led 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1 and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2
    • That’s 686 of 1,016 (67.5%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals.
    • However, they’re 2-for-5 this year in wins.
  • Chevy is now 3-for-5 this year on superspeedway’s and went 5-for-6 last year. However, even being 3-for-5 this year, they led a lot less of laps than Ford.
    • They led a combined 174 laps on these tracks this season but won three races. By comparison, Toyota has led 157. 
    • Ford’s are leading, Chevy’s are winning and Toyota’s are just there.