TRACK: Talladega Superspeedway (2.66-mile oval). DISTANCE: 500 Laps — STAGE 1: 60 Laps, STAGE 2: 60 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 68 Laps, MILES (500.08 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

The spring race has been around since 1970 but the Fall race was the 1st race ever here at Talladega on Sept. 14, 1969. This year will mark the 108th and 109th races on the high-speed Alabama superspeedway.

• The last 4 winners each started 19th, 19th, 16th, 17th.
• 13 of the previous 14 races were won by the top 6 Rows.
• Only 2 pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 37 Cup races at Talladega. Those are the only 2 front row starters to win since the playoff race of 2011 (24 races). Previously, 5 of the 13 races before were won by front row starters. On top of that, only 1 Daytona pole winner has won there since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016) too.
• Ford had won 11 of 14 races then Chevy has gone out to win 3 straight now.
• Toyota has won 2 of the last 3 Fall races but has only won 3 times in the last 28 races overall. 2 of which were won by Denny Hamlin.
• Ford has dominated laps led this season on tracks.
  • They led 122 of 212 in Daytona 500 and 110 of 163 laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.
  • They led 88 of 196 in Talladega
  • They led 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1 and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2
  • That’s 686 of 1,016 (67.5%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals.
  • However, they’re 2-for-5 this year.
• Chevy is now 3-for-5 this year on superspeedway’s and went 5-for-6 last year. However, even being 3-for-5 this year, they led a lot less of laps than Ford.
  • They led a combined 174 laps on these tracks this season but won three races. By comparison, Toyota has led 157. 
  • Ford’s are leading, Chevy’s are winning and Toyota’s are just there.
• At Talladega though, just 8 times since 1995 has a driver earned their first or second career wins there.
• Wallace in 2021 was the 12th driver to pick up his 1st career win at Talladega joining Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2017), Brad Keselowski (2009), Brian Vickers (2006), Ken Schrader (1988), Phil Parsons (1988), Davey Allison (1987), Bobby Hillin Jr. (1986), Ron Bouchard (1981), Lennie Pond (1978), Dick Brooks (1973) and Richard Brickhouse (1969).
• 7 straight years now a driver scored their 1st or 2nd career superspeedway win at Talladega. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. started it in the Spring of 2017, followed by Aric Almirola in the Fall of 2018, Chase Elliott in the Spring of 2019, then Ryan Blaney did so in the Fall of 2019 and Spring 2020 race while Bubba Wallace did it in Fall of 2021 and Chastain and Elliott last year. Kyle Busch won this spring and he has multiple superspeedway wins, so does that open up for a 1st or 2nd winner on Sunday?
• Since the win and advance format was introduced to the sport in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an existing playoff driver with the exception of 2021. They’re 8-for-9.
• 6 times has a non-playoff driver won the NASCAR Cup Series’ playoff race at Talladega. It first occurred in 2005 with Dale Jarrett. It happened again a year later (2006) with Brian Vickers. Then we saw it twice in 2009 and again in 2013 with Jamie McMurray as well as 2011 with Clint Bowyer and in 2021 with Bubba Wallace. Only Wallace is in Cup anymore.
• 4 of the last 5 Talladega playoff winners were outside the top eight in the playoff standings entering Talladega including Wallace not even being in the playoffs in 2021.

Favorites

Brad Keselowski (+1100)

You always go with Brad on a superspeedway race. Even though he was 23rd and 24th respectively last year, He was fifth in the spring, second in last month’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 and has won six times at Talladega, including the spring of 2021. He was also runner-up that Fall too. Keselowski has the most superspeedway points (188) and second most laps led (116) on these tracks this season with finishes of second, fifth, sixth, second in the last four. On the season, he has five straight Top-10 finishes too.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

The Team Penske driver has an astounding four Top-2 finishes in his last eight tries at Talladega including a pair of wins (2019, 2020) at that. On superspeedway’s this season, he’s finished eight, seventh, second, ninth and 36th at Daytona. He’s scored the seventh most points (149) on superspeedway’s this season and has led fourth most laps (77). He fits all the trends (stats below) too.

Denny Hamlin (+1400)

He can win at any given time on a superspeedway, but for his odds and having just one top 10 in his last 10 superspeedway starts give me reason to pause too. However, six Top-7 finishes in his last 10 Talladega tries also gives me optimism. He has seven straight top seven’s in the Fall race too. Hamlin has scored just the 12th most points on superspeedway’s this season though with finishes of 17th, sixth, 17th, 14th, 26th which is why I’m wary but will still roll with the hottest driver in the series right now.

Chase Elliott (+1400)

He won the last time out here in the playoffs and has two trips to victory lane in his last eight Talladega starts. Elliott’s pair of Talladega finishes last year were seventh and first respectively to give him five top eight finishes in his last nine Talladega tries overall. He was 12th this spring and fourth in last month’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.

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Sleepers

Chris Buescher (+1300)

This is a tough one. He’s 1-for-16 in regards to Top-5 finishes at Talladega. However, he does have a pair of sixth place finishes here since 2020, was in the Top-2 in the closing laps at Daytona back in February, won the return trip last month and this 17 car is a past spring race winner at Talladega too. The other side is he was four of his last six Talladega finishes too have seen him finish 21st or worse though. He’s been too hot so I’ll roll the dice on a driver with three Top-4 finishes on superspeedway’s this season and the fourth most points scored.

William Byron (+1400)

He has five top 12 finishes in his last seven starts at Talladega including a runner-up finish in the spring of 2021. On superspeedway’s this season, he’s finished 34th, 32nd, seventh, first and eighth. He has the eighth most points (136) accumulated on them too and coming off of a win last weekend in Texas and won a drafting race in Atlanta in July.

Aric Almirola (+2000)

The Stewart-Haas Racing driver had a streak of eight straight Top-10 finishes at Talladega, including five of which in the Top-5 and a win in October 2018. Since? 37th, 15th, 26th, 13th, 14th, 22nd. However, he was third in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and has shown a lot of speed lately.

Daniel Suarez (+2500)

His two Atlanta finishes last year were fourth and sixth. He was runner-up this past July and had a good car before being caught up in a crash this spring. For the Daytona 500 he was seventh and here was ninth this spring.

Erik Jones (+2500)

Jones has had six Top-10 finishes in his last seven Talladega starts including five of which in the top six. Jones led 25 laps here last spring of 2022 and 23 more last Fall in what could have been wins in each. He was sixth this past April, eight and 11th in Atlanta too.

Austin Dillon (+2800)

He was second here in the spring of last year and also won last August in Daytona. On top of that, he and teammate Kyle Busch were 1-2 at the end of the Daytona 500 before an overtime restart. Furthermore, Dillon has six Top-13 finishes in his last seven Talladega tries.

Chase Briscoe (+2800)

Four of his five Talladega finishes have been inside the Top-15. He was fourth this past spring, led the most laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and had a car capable of winning.

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Who To Fade?

Joey Logano (+1200)

These were among his worst tracks last year but his best this. Logano has scored the second most points (177) and led the most laps (175). He’s also a three-time Talladega winner (Oct. 2015, October 2016, April 2018). So why am I fading him? Five of his last six Talladega finishes have also seen him finish 26th or worse too with just one Top-10 finish in his last seven here. That’s a reason to be wary. He was 30th this past spring and if push comes to shoves, he’s going to be a pusher to help a Ford and not the one being pushed to a win.

Bubba Wallace (+1400)

He won here in 2021, was runner-up in the 2021 Daytona 500 too. If he can stay out of trouble, the odds are good for a win on Sunday. My only pause is the fact that his win in 2021 is his only finish better than 14th too here in his 11 Cup tries. His NXS finishes were 31st, 20th, 13th and 13th respectively. On superspeedways this season, he’s finished 20th, 27th, 28th, 25th, 12th. He’s accumulated just the 22nd most points (90) on them.

Kyle Busch (+2000)

Not one of his better races. While he won in the spring, he’s only 2-for-36 in trips to victory lane. Busch’s last nine finishes in the Fall Talladega race have been 11th or worse including his last six being 30th, 27th, 26th, 19th, 27th, 27th and 20th respectively. He was 32nd, 18th, third and first in the last four spring races too. I don’t foresee a sweep this weekend despite having the third most points scored (160) on superspeedways. No one has swept the pair of Talladega race since 2007.

Kyle Larson (+2000)

He’s only 1-for-40 for top 5’s on superspeedway’s. In fact, his last five finishes at Talladega are 39th, 40th, 40th, 37th, fourth, 18th and 33rd respectively. Not a good week for him.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2000)

Almost always a superspeedway threat but I don’t like him for these odds. Stenhouse Jr. was runner-up in the 2020 spring race. He was ninth in the Fall race in 2019 too. However, can the Daytona 500 champion win again? Stenhouse’s last six Talladega finishes are 38th, 33rd, 16th, 30th, 22nd and 15th respectively.

Ross Chastain (+2000)

He had a Top-5 finish in both Talladega races a year ago. However, his superspeedway finishes this season are ninth, 13th, 23rd, 35th, 17th. He’s the 14 ranked driver in terms of points scored on these tracks in 2023 too.

Austin Cindric (+2000)

He won the season opening Daytona 500 last year and driving a car that’s won six times here. Cindric also was third in Atlanta 2 last year and third in the return trip to Daytona back in August and ninth here last year in the Fall. That’s last season. This year, he’s finished 23rd, 11th, 26th, 12th, 37th on the same tracks.

Christopher Bell (+2200)

He’s finished 34th, 23rd, 22nd, 19th and 36th on these tracks last season. Despite being third in Daytona, third in Atlanta and eighth here this spring, I’m still skeptical. His spring Talladega finishes prior to 2023 were: 29th, 17th and 22nd respectively. His Fall finishes are 39th, fifth and 17th. That’s why I’ll punt despite the sixth most points scored on superspeedways this season.

Kevin Harvick (+2800)

He’s only had two top five finishes in his last 22 Talladega starts. He’s only scored the 19th most points on superspeedways this season too with finishes of 12th, 33rd, 21st, 30th, ninth.

Michael McDowell (+2800)

He won the Daytona 500 in 2021. McDowell also has three Top-8 finishes in his last five Talladega starts including a third-place finish in the 2021 spring race and the same result here last Fall. However, this season, he’s finished 28th, 21st, 35th, fourth and 13th on the same tracks.

Tyler Reddick (+2800)

He won an Xfinity Series race at ‘Dega as well as having two straight seventh place finishes on the 2.66-mile track before being 39th, 39th, 28th, 16th respectively. He also crashed out and finished 39th in the Daytona 500 too and was 25th last month.

Alex Bowman (+2800)

Just one top five finish in Daytona and only one in 15 career Talladega starts too. Two of his last four Talladega results have been in 38th place.

Martin Truex Jr. (+3000)

He’s had just three top five finishes at Talladega since 2007. His last 12 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th and 27th respectively. He’s only scored the 17th most points on superspeedway’s too. On top of that, out of 104 drafting track starts between Daytona, Talladega and the four races at Atlanta with the new configuration, Truex has no wins.