How Drivers Race Each Other

On a drafting track, it’s usually predicated by teammates and manufacturers helping one another. However, I’m curious on how much they help each other late in the race. This could be an opposite scenario as what we saw for Atlanta and Daytona to where no one wanted to help the drivers on the outside looking.

It was a topic brought forth in Atlanta. On the final restart, you had 3 winless drivers against someone that had already won this season. William Byron, the driver with at least one trip to victory lane had the perfect storm. He had a fast car. The leader, AJ Allmendinger, had too much drag in his car to compensate for stability. That combo meant that he couldn’t lead for long as he didn’t have the power to stay there. He had to time his move late instead.

“We had a race car that handled really well. Probably didn’t lead very well,” Allmendinger admitted that night. “We probably had a little bit too much drag in it. But we kind of had that idea that we came with handling, so once I got to the lead I couldn’t really defend because they would get such big runs, but we could stay up front.”

As a result, Allmendinger had a tough time holding off Daniel Suarez too and fell back to third. However, with you have Byron-Suarez-Allmendinger-Michael McDowell as the top four and the one leading with a win and the three behind without, you get yourself in an interesting predicament.

Suarez felt like he had a car capable of getting by Byron. But, he also knew that with drivers like Allmendinger and McDowell behind, there was no way that they were going to work with him and push him by Byron.

All three at the time were winless on the season and selfishly, if they couldn’t win for themselves, having Byron win was far better than one of the other two.

“I wish I had one more shot at it,” Suarez said. “With that being said, I had two cars in third and fourth, they also needed to win. If they could pick somebody to help, it wasn’t going to be me.”

Similar situation in last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. RCR teammates Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick were 1-2 in the end. Reddick had already won multiple times and had a spot into the playoffs. Dillon’s only path in was to win and win only. Reddick ensured he wasn’t going to pass Dillon and happily pushed his teammate not only to the win at Daytona, but a playoff berth in the process.

“I know that may be hard to believe,” Reddick said of sticking with his teammate. “But certainly, I had no interest and he knew that. I wasn’t going to pass him. I was going to be playing blocker for the rest of the field.”

What happens this time around? What if you have playoff drivers needing a win with non playoff eligible drivers mixed in up front? Wouldn’t you rather push and help a non playoff driver over pushing a playoff driver to not only a win but a spot in the next round too?

6 times has a non-playoff driver won the NASCAR Cup Series’ playoff race at Talladega. It first occurred in 2005 with Dale Jarrett. It happened again a year later (2006) with Brian Vickers. Then we saw it twice in 2009 and again in 2013 with Jamie McMurray as well as 2011 with Clint Bowyer and in 2021 with Bubba Wallace. Only Wallace is in Cup anymore.

However, since the win and advance format was introduced to the sport in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an existing playoff driver with the exception of 2021. They’re 8-for-9.

4 of the last 5 Talladega playoff winners were outside the top eight in the playoff standings entering Talladega including Wallace not even being in the playoffs a couple of years ago.

So do we see a playoff driver win on Sunday or a non playoff driver and how much of a factor plays into who’s going for the win in the end at that?

I think Stewart-Haas could make some noise as a result of that.

They were strong in Daytona last month. While they have only one driver in the playoffs this year, how much of an impact do they have on Sunday’s race?

Only once since 2014 has a non playoff driver won this race but a year ago, 4 of the first 5 races were won by non playoff drivers. Does SHR have something up their sleeve for Sunday?

We know they may get extra drafting help since no one has to worry about them taking a spot into the Round of 8.

Aric Almirola had a streak of eight straight Top-10 finishes at Talladega, including five of which in the Top-5 and a win in October 2018. Since? 37th, 15th, 26th, 13th, 14th, 22nd. However, he was third in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and has shown a lot of speed lately.

For Chase Briscoe, four of his five Talladega finishes have been inside the Top-15. He was fourth this past spring, led the most laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and had a car capable of winning too.

Kevin Harvick and Ryan Preece haven’t finished well on these tracks in 2023 but what a story it would be if either could win. Harvick in his final superspeedway race and Preece for how violent of crashes he’s endured on these tracks this season.

Plus, Preece hasn’t won a race yet in his Cup career.

What about Chase Elliott (last year’s winner)? What about Daniel Suarez? His 2 Atlanta finishes last year were fourth and sixth. He was runner-up this past July and had a good car before being caught up in a crash this spring. For the Daytona 500 he was seventh and here was ninth this spring.

What about Erik Jones?

Jones has had six Top-10 finishes in his last seven Talladega starts including five of which in the top six. Jones led 25 laps here last spring of 2022 and 23 more last Fall in what could have been wins in each. He was sixth this past April, eight and 11th in Atlanta too.

7 straight years now a driver scored their 1st or 2nd career superspeedway win at Talladega. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. started it in the Spring of 2017, followed by Aric Almirola in the Fall of 2018, Chase Elliott in the Spring of 2019, then Ryan Blaney did so in the Fall of 2019 and Spring 2020 race while Bubba Wallace did it in Fall of 2021 and Chastain and Elliott last year. Kyle Busch won this spring and he has multiple superspeedway wins, so does that open up for a 1st or 2nd winner on Sunday?

Preece, Briscoe, Jones and Suarez all fit that criteria and may get extra drafting help at the end from playoff drivers not wanting to push other playoff drivers to a win.

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Crashes

Ryan Preece t-boned Kyle Larson late in the spring race here sparking some changes to the car to help from an impact like that and an intrusion. In Daytona last month, Preece flipped violently. Luckily he walked away in both instances.

However, do we see another scary crash on Sunday?

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How Stages Look

With this being a playoff race, stage points are crucial. However, mixing it up in the front while battling for points is a dangerous aspect too. What if you get caught up in a crash while doing so and not only not get points, but you fumble away a solid finish in the end. On the flip side, what if there’s not any carnage and you ride in the back playing it safe? Joey Logano did that last year and finished 27th.

“I don’t think you can pick a guy that is a favorite at Talladega because you never know what can happen there,” said Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, a back-to-back Talladega (2019-20) winner and current Playoff driver.

“We had had good runs at Talladega, but you never know what can happen. I think the best thing that we have talked about for that race is to try to control it like we have in the past and get a few of our cars up there and control the front of the pack.

“Hopefully, you can maintain that. We kind of see it is difficult to go from the back to the front now at speedways, so you try not to bury yourself.”

There’s a fine line. Where is it?

“Talladega is a stress-ball of emotions,” said Busch, a three-time winner in his first season driving the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet who goes into the weekend’s race ranked last (12th) in the Playoff standings after a DNF at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday.

This superspeedway package isn’t easy to race with. No longer can you just come through the field when you want. It’s more of a track position affair. With that said, do you take the risk and ride up front and score as many points as you can get early?

You want the track position and it doesn’t hurt to get points early and often. That way if you do get caught up in a crash later, you have stage points to fall back on. Ryan Blaney had the 2nd most stage points last week which is why despite a sub 25th place finish, he’s still within striking distance of being 11 points back.

But, if you crash while doing so, it was all for nothing and those riding in the back are now up front.

That’s why how the stages look has my attention.

“It is [a different vibe] for sure,” said Byron, whose best Talladega finish is runner-up in the 2021 Spring race.

“I think it’s even more difficult to get track position. That’s the thing I’ve noticed about Talladega in the Fall. It’s not like you can just drive up there and steal something from somebody. It’s definitely going to be tough getting to the front and I feel like we’ve personally struggled with that in the past. It’s not been our best superspeedway race in the Fall.

“I think being a Playoff race, it’s important to get up to the front and control the race. It’s not like the Spring where there’s a lot of different agendas and not everyone is taking it as serious.

“It’s definitely intense.”

Kyle Larson is someone who doesn’t finish well on these tracks. But, he qualifies well. He’s started 5th, 5th, 2nd, 9th in the last 4. With being only 2 points to the good, would you rather just go with points? He find crashes here more times than not and could use the early points. He was 5th in Talladega and 2nd in Atlanta 2 in opening stages. He’s also finished in the points in 6 of the last 8 Stage 1’s too. In Stage 2, he’s finished 2nd, no points, 3rd, 1st the last 4 races. The thing is, he’s not scored a single stage point in the second stage on a superspeedway this season either.

Same with Martin Truex Jr. He’s started 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 2nd, 22nd, 7th but is 0-for-104 on drafting tracks. He’s finished 20th or worse in 12 of his last 14 here. Maybe he gets points early. The thing is, he’s not do so much lately. While he has 3 opening stage wins (Loudon, Michigan, Daytona) he’s also only scored points in Stage 1 in 4 of the last 9 of them. Although, on superspeedway’s, he’s scored 35 stage points.

By comparison, Brad Keselowski has qualified 15th, 18th, 20th in the last three. He maybe can afford to be a little more patient. In saying that, he has 3 stage wins on superspeedway’s this season (Stage 1 Daytona 500, Stage 2 Atlanta 2, Stage 2 Coke Zero Sugar 400). He’s won 2 of the last 5 Stage 2’s on the season at that and has the most stage points on superspeedway’s among playoff drivers so far.

Tyler Reddick is close to the cutline and has also been stellar in the opening stage with points in 13 of the last 15 races including finishes of 2nd, 6th, 5th, 1st in the last four.

Blaney being -11 could easily get back on the positive side of things with stage points. Same for Bubba Wallace. He’s scored points in the opening stage in 8 of the last 10 races including 3 straight. He has 48 stage points in Stage 1 during this span. Stage 2 he has scored points in 5 of the 10 races with 20 points scored. He has 17 stage points on superspeedway’s this season.

Kyle Busch has scored points in just 2 of the last 13 opening stages but none in the last five. He hasn’t scored stage points in the second stage in the last three races either.

Superspeedway Stage Points This Year Among Playoff Drivers

1. Keselowski 40
2. Truex Jr. 35
3. Byron 29
4. Buescher 26
5. Blaney 26 (19 in Atlanta 2)
6. Bell 22
7. Chastain 20
8. Wallace 17
9. Larson 15
10. Hamlin 15
11. Reddick 14
12. Busch 13

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Are Larson and Truex Jr. In Trouble?

Toyota has won 2 of the last 3 playoff races here. Hendrick Motorsports won the other. However, I wonder if Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. are in massive trouble this weekend.

Truex Jr. was 12th in both stages last Sunday in Texas and finished only 17th. He’s only +19 in the standings.

Kyle Larson led 98 laps and was well on his way to a Texas win, but a late race crash while battling Bubba Wallace for the lead put him 31st. He’s only +2.

The thing is, both are terrible at Talladega.

Truex Jr. has had just three top five finishes here since 2007. His last 12 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th and 27th respectively. He’s only scored the 17th most points on superspeedway’s too.

Combine that with being 0-for-64 at Daytona and that’s counting the Clash and Duels and now 0-for-4 at Atlanta, he’s 0-for-105 on drafting tracks.

That could put him coming from behind again on the ROVAL. Granted, he should have won the inaugural race, was 7th in the two races after but since has finished 29th and 17th the last 2 years. He’s also finished 17th, first, 32nd, seventh, sixth on road courses this season. Last year, he finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th on them.

That’s why he’s on upset alert in my book.

Similar for Larson.

On superspeedway’s, he’s only 1-for-40 for top 5 finishes. In fact, his last five finishes at Talladega are 39th, 40th, 40th, 37th, fourth, 18th and 33rd respectively. For the ROVAL, yes he won in 2021, but he was outside the top 30 last year and has finished 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too.

The margin for error is smaller in this round with 4 less drivers. That’s why the regular season can only get you so far in the playoffs because you the pool of drivers grows smaller but more talented too.

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Can Ford’s Capitalize?

Ryan Blaney may have been caught up in the late race crash to leave him 28th in Texas. But, those 11 stage points helped minimize the damage. Same for Chris Buescher who finished 14th but had 15 stage points.

Blaney is -11 and Buescher +22.

Now, it’s to Talladega. This is their chance to capitalize.

While Ford’s led only 30 laps in the opening stage and just 2 last Sunday in Texas, superspeedway’s are where they do their most damage.

Since August, their entire laps led for a race was 68, 54, 17, 110 (Daytona), 2, 27, 1, 2.

• They led 122 of 212 in Daytona 500 and 110 of 163 laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.
• They led 88 of 196 in Talladega
• They led 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1 and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2
• That’s 686 of 1,018 (67.3%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals. However, they’re 2-for-5 this year.
• Chevy is now 3-for-5 this year on superspeedway’s and went 5-for-6 last year. However, even being 3-for-5 this year, they led a lot less of laps than Ford.
• They led a combined 174 laps on these tracks this season but won three races. By comparison, Toyota has led 157. 
• Ford’s are leading, Chevy’s are winning and Toyota’s are just there.

Blaney has an astounding four Top-2 finishes in his last eight tries at Talladega including a pair of wins (2019, 2020) at that. On superspeedway’s this season, he’s finished eight, seventh, second, ninth and 36th at Daytona. He’s scored the seventh most points (149) on superspeedway’s this season and has led fourth most laps (77).

Buescher just won Daytona for a 1-2 finish for RFK Racing.

Brad Keselowski (+8) was fifth in the spring, second in last month’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 and has won six times at Talladega, including the spring of 2021. He was also runner-up that Fall too. Keselowski has the most superspeedway points (188) and second most laps led (116) on these tracks this season with finishes of second, fifth, sixth, second in the last four.

With how well they race at Talladega, this is their week.

Buescher will be fine on the ROVAL. His last five road course finishes last year read: second (Sonoma), sixth (Road America), 10th (Indianapolis) ninth (Watkins Glen) and sixth (ROVAL). This year, he’s finished eighth, fourth, 10th, 11th and seventh on them. 

Blaney and Keselowski struggle on road courses, so this is their best shot. If 1 of them can win on Sunday and Buescher can stack top 10’s the next 2 weeks, they may all 3 be good to the Round of 8.

Plus, you have Stewart-Haas Racing who were all strong in Daytona last month. They had the speed but didn’t get the overall finishes that they needed. Just a few years ago, they had a 1-2-3-4 type of day in this very race. They’re now racing for pride. With that much speed though and three other Ford’s working for a championship, do all 7 work together?