Eric Smith

5 favorites, 5 sleepers, 5 fades, Texas Track Trends

  • Look for the winner to come from the top 6 Rows. 19 of the last 21 and 21 of the last 24 Texas races were won from a top 10 starter.
  • 4 times has the winner of the Cup race at Texas gone on to win the championship. 2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 2011- Tony Stewart, 2013 – Jimmie Johnson, 2021 – Kyle Larson.
  • 5 times has a non playoff driver won this race – 2006 Tony Stewart, 2014 Jimmie Johnson, 2015 Jimmie Johnson, 2020 Kyle Busch, 2022 Tyler Reddick.
  • 5 of the last 9 1st stage winners have finished in the top 3.
  • 3 of the last 6 2nd stage winners have won the race outright in the end
  • 2nd time this race has kicked off the Round of 12.
FORT WORTH, TEXAS – MAY 22: Ryan Blaney, driver of the #12 Menards/Wrangler Ford, takes the checkered flag to win the NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway on May 22, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Favorites

Kyle Larson (+450)

He won both the All-Star race as well as the playoff race at Texas in 2021. He also has three Top-10 finishes in his last five Texas starts and has finished second, second, 20th, 30th, fourth, first, fourth on tracks with this racing package. Larson had an average finishing spot of 3.1 in the opening round with finishes of first, fourth and second respectively. With what’s looming ahead, he knows that he needs this race and I think he delivers.

William Byron (+700)

He was runner-up in 2021 after leading 55 laps. Last year, he led 42 laps and finished seventh. He has been strong with this package this season with finishes of first, third, first, second, eighth, fourth and 15th. Byron had two Top-10 finishes in three first round races.

Tyler Reddick (+800)

The defending race winner who has finished second, 15th, ninth and first there respectively. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished fifth, 35th, second and first in the last four. He had a stellar opening round of the playoffs too with results of second, first and 15th respectively.

Christopher Bell

Two of his last 3 finishes were third here. In the Xfinity Series, 3 of his last 4 finishes were also in the top 3. He improved his finish in all three races in the opening round too going from 23rd to 8th to 3rd. He starts 9th.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

Busch has five Top-10 finishes in his last six Texas starts. He won in 2020 even. The car he’s driving now, won a year ago. Out of 32 career starts on this 1.5-mile track, Busch has four wins, 14 Top-5 finishes and 18 Top-10 results. He’s also finished seventh, sixth, first, 11th and seventh on intermediate tracks lately as well.

Sleepers

Chris Buescher (+1500)

Can the Texas native win? On intermediate tracks, he’s finished 10th, eighth, 12th, third, 27th in the last five starts on them. He also had two Top-4 finishes in three opening round races.

Brad Keselowski (+1600)

He has four straight Top-10 finishes in Texas (9th, 6th, 4th, 8th) and 12 top 10 finishes in 27 career starts on this track. He was sixth in Darlington, ninth in Kansas and eighth in Bristol in the last round too.

Joey Logano (+3000)

He’s had 10 top 10 finishes in his last 12 Texas starts including a runner-up just last season. He’s also had two Top-5 finishes in his last three starts on intermediate tracks.

Erik Jones (+5500)

A very solid sleeper play here. Jones, has seven Top-10 finishes in his last eight tries at Texas including a sixth place run just last year. Also, in five Xfinity Series tries on the 1.5 mile track, he’s finished in the top four in all including two wins. On intermediate tracks, he just finished 10th and third last round.

Daniel Suarez (+5500)

4 top 12 finishes in his last 6 Texas starts and he rolls off inside the top 10. 2 of the last 3 years here were won via a non-playoff driver and he fits every trend. Plus, he tested here in the summer.

FORT WORTH, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 25: Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota, spins into the wall after an on-track incident that Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, avoids during the NASCAR Cup Series Auto Trader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on September 25, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Who To Fade?

Denny Hamlin (+450)

This surprisingly isn’t one of his strongest tracks and while I think he’s a great fantasy play, not so much on an outright winner for these odds. Yes, he’s a three-time Texas winner and has two runner-up finishes in his last three starts on intermediate tracks this season, but he also has just two Top-5 finishes in his last 10 Texas tries too. He has great fantasy value with four Top-11 finishes in his last six there, but it’s just the lack of race winning contention that scares me here despite two straight Top-2 finishes on the season.

Martin Truex Jr. (+800)

0-for-33 here. Three of his last four Texas finishes have seen him come home 25th or worse too. He has just one single Top-5 finish in his last eight starts on the 1.5-mile track and comes to the next round with finishes of 18th, 36th, 19th in the opening round.

Chase Elliott (+1600)

He’s not had a top five in any of his last 10 Texas starts. Five of his last six has seen him finish 12th or worse at that.

Ross Chastain (+2200)

No Top-10 finishes in six tries. Was 13th last year and fifth, 13th, 23rd in the first round races.

Alex Bowman (+4500)

Three of his last four Texas finishes have been 29th or worse.

Leave a comment