Ford’s Season Struggles Continue
Ford’s led just a combined total of 30 laps in the opening round of the playoffs. That shouldn’t come as much of a shock because they’ve largely struggled away from superspeedway’s this season. 686 of their 1,808 laps led (37.9%) were on these types of tracks.
Since August, their entire laps led for a race was 68, 54, 17, 110 (Daytona), 2, 27, 1.
On road courses, Toyota led 148 laps. Chevy 133. Ford? 76.
On short tracks, it was Toyota 558 entering the night, Ford 498 and Chevy 394. The rest? Chevy 1,998, Toyota 1,444 and Ford 547.
It’s the main reason as to why 3 of the 4 drives eliminated in the opening round belonged to the Ford camp. With just 6 wins this season, they’ve been playing from behind all along.
Joey Logano finished 12th, 5th, 34th in the opening round. Kevin Harvick was 19th, 11th, 29th. Michael McDowell was 32nd, 26th, 5th. It just wasn’t executed good enough.
Logano lucked out on strategy in Kansas but it came back to bite him in Bristol when he was an innocent bystander in a mid race crash. Harvick’s No. 4 Ford just had no speed and struggled in all aspects.
With 7 races remaining, I think that at this point of the year and having only 3 drivers championship eligible left, that the other Ford teams should swallow their pride and just go out in 2023 with their focus forward on 2024. Use these tracks as defacto test sessions to help propel them forward for next season.
Toyota’s Thriving
Ford has just 3 drivers left. Chevrolet has 4. Toyota has the remaining 5. It was a dominating round for them with Denny Hamlin leading the most laps in the Southern 500, he and Tyler Reddick going 1-2 in Kansas and he, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs going 1-3-5 in Bristol.
Hamlin should have won Darlington, if not for a late race caution would have won Kansas, then did win Bristol. That’s finishes of 2nd, 1st in the last two weeks.
Christopher Bell swept the round in poles. While he didn’t win any of those races, he did finish 23rd, 8th, 3rd.
Martin Truex Jr. has new life. It was an abysmal opening round. However, he survived and advanced and is second in points again.
For 23XI Racing, Tyler Reddick finished 2nd, 1st, 15th and Bubba Wallace coming from 19 points down to making it to the next round with finishes of 7th, 32nd, 14th.
With 5 of the 12 drivers left fighting for this year’s championship, Toyota can’t afford to leave Texas on Sunday fighting from behind. With Talladega looming up next, you don’t want to go to the ROVAL fighting among themselves for the final few spots to the Round of 8.
Texas surprisingly isn’t one of Hamlin’s strongest tracks. Yes, he’s a three-time Texas winner and has two runner-up finishes in his last three starts on intermediate tracks this season, but he also has just two Top-5 finishes in his last 10 Texas tries too. He is a great fantasy play with four Top-11 finishes in his last six there, but it’s just the lack of race winning contention that scares me here despite two straight Top-2 finishes on the season.
Then it’s to Talladega to where Hamlin can win at any given time on a superspeedway, but has just one top 10 in his last 10 superspeedway starts give me reason to pause too. However, six Top-7 finishes in his last 10 Talladega tries also gives me optimism. He has seven straight top seven’s in the Fall race too. Hamlin has scored just the 12th most points on superspeedway’s this season though with finishes of 17th, sixth, 17th, 14th, 26th which is could also put him in a peril position heading to the ROVAL.
For Bell, He’s finished third in two of the last three years at Texas too. The thing is, Bell was only 34th last year however and with only one Top-5 finish and just two Top-10’s on intermediate tracks this season, I’m wary.
For Talladega, Bell had finished 34th, 23rd, 22nd, 19th and 36th on these tracks last season. Despite being third in Daytona, third in Atlanta and eighth here this spring, I’m still skeptical. His spring Talladega finishes prior to 2023 were: 29th, 17th and 22nd respectively. His Fall finishes are 39th, fifth and 17th.
Truex Jr. has newfound life. But, he’s 0-for-33 at Texas. Three of his last four Texas finishes have seen him come home 25th or worse too. He has just one single Top-5 finish in his last eight starts on the 1.5-mile track and comes to the next round with finishes of 18th, 36th, 19th in the opening round.
Talladega may be his worst track. He’s had just three top five finishes at Talladega since 2007. His last 12 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th and 27th respectively. He’s only scored the 17th most points on superspeedway’s too.
Wallace finished 7th, 32nd, 14th in the opening round but also has just one Top-10 finish in his last eight Texas starts and that came in his first try at that. He’s been 23rd or worse in six of his last seven Texas tries. He does have a good car on intermediate tracks this season with finishes of fourth, fourth, fifth, fourth, 30th, seventh and 32nd, but I’d fade him this weekend.
Maybe for next weekend too.
Wallace won here in 2021, was runner-up in the 2021 Daytona 500 too. My only pause is the fact that his win in 2021 is his only finish better than 14th too here in his 11 Cup tries. His NXS finishes were 31st, 20th, 13th and 13th respectively. On superspeedways this season, he’s finished 20th, 27th, 28th, 25th, 12th. He’s accumulated just the 22nd most points (90) on them.
Tyler Reddick may be their breadwinner on Sunday. He’s the defending race winner who has finished second, 15th, ninth and first there respectively. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished fifth, 35th, second and first in the last four. He had a stellar opening round of the playoffs too with results of second, first and 15th respectively.
Larson, Hamlin Favorites
There’s no hiding the fact that this is shaping up to be a Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson battle for the championship. Same as in 2021 too. Hamlin and Larson won 2 of the 3 opening round races. That season, Hamlin won the Southern 500 and Larson the Bristol Night Race. This year, it was the opposite.
Hamlin dominated the Southern 500 in sweeping both stages and leading 177 laps along the way. He thought he had a loose wheel towards the end and had to endure an unscheduled pit stop. That dropped him to 25th. In Kansas, he had the race won (63 laps led) until the final caution sending the race to overtime. He finished second. This past week, he led 142 of 500 laps and won.
382 laps led in the opening round gives him over 14,000 for his career now.
“It’s our year,” Hamlin said after scoring his 51st career NASCAR Cup Series victory. “I just feel like we’ve got it all put together. We’ve got the speed every single type of racetrack. Nothing to stop us at this point.”
For Larson, he did win Darlington, was fourth in Kansas and now runner-up in Bristol. That gives him 100 career top 5 finishes now.
Larson, Truex Still On Upset Alert
Martin Truex Jr. can breathe a sigh of relief. Despite being 7 points down entering last weekend and finishing 19th in Saturday night’s race at Bristol, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is moving on to the Round of 12.
The two stage points in the opening round helped. He was +5 in the end and can start over again.
Truex got into the wall in practice at Darlington and despite knowing that he probably needed to fix the car, he remained silent. He was afraid to call for changes and them not be needed. They definitely did. He’d finish 18th. A week later, an early race cut tire put him in the wall and a last place 36th place effort.
Bristol is one of his worst tracks. He barely got by and now has new life. However, can he truly turn things around?
Truex is 0-for-33 in Texas. Three of his last four Texas finishes have seen him come home 25th or worse too. He has just one single Top-5 finish in his last eight starts on the 1.5-mile track and comes to the next round with finishes of 18th, 36th, 19th in the opening round.
He’s had just three top five finishes at Talladega since 2007. His last 12 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th and 27th respectively. He’s only scored the 17th most points on superspeedway’s too.
On the ROVAL, he should have won the inaugural race, was 7th in the two races after but 29th and 17th the last 2 years. He’s also finished 17th, first, 32nd, seventh, sixth on road courses this season. Last year, he finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th on them.
Kyle Larson should also be on upset alert too. Yes, I just said he was a championship front runner. That’s through the first round. For the second round?
In 2021, he won 2 of these 3 playoff tracks. However, Texas wasn’t in this round. Now, it is.
He finished 9th, 18th, 35th on the same tracks last year. Texas is his best shot at victory. On superspeedway’s, he’s only 1-for-40 for top 5 finishes. In fact, his last five finishes at Talladega are 39th, 40th, 40th, 37th, fourth, 18th and 33rd respectively. For the ROVAL, yes he won in 2021, but he was outside the top 30 last year and has finished 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too.
The margin for error is smaller this round with 4 less drivers.
Cardiac Wallace Does It Again, Can He Avoid The Cutline This Time Around?
Bubba Wallace admitted nerves leading up to the regular season finale in Daytona. He was on edge. But, he also did just enough to advance to his first career playoff appearance as well. Heading into Bristol, he was on the bubble again.
Wallace was 7th in Darlington but a toe link issue after catching the wall early in Kansas left him 32nd. He was -19 entering the Round of 16 elimination race. No one has made up that many points in the final race of the first round without having to win.
Wallace, now has that feat.
He can thank qualifying last Friday night for that.
Wallace started ninth. He’d finish third in the opening stage to get eight crucial stage points. He advanced to the next round by just 4. Those points in the opening stage was enough to get him to the Round of 12 and newfound life again.
With Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano struggling to the tune of not stage points and finishes of 29th and 34th respectively, Wallace did just enough to finish 14th and move on.
Over a chorus of boos, Wallace at it up.
“Good, I love that shit right there. Counting us out (referring to the boos of the crowd),” he said. “Like Coco Gauff said, all they’re doing is adding fuel to the fire. I love it.
“I love where I’m at with this team. Wish my mom, dad, sister were here to celebrate with me. I mean, a career year. Just got to keep it going. Appreciate all the partners involved. Columbia has done great when they’re on the car. Hated it for them last week.
“I’m mentally exhausted. I’m wore out. Gave it our all there. Battled hard and executed. That’s what you got to do.
“We know next week’s a reset. We just got to go out and have some fun, work our asses off.
“Thank you to the ones that believe in me. Keep it going. Yeah, on to next week.”
Who’s Hot, Who’s Not
The Championship 4 favorites have to be Denny Hamlin (25th, 2nd, 1st), Kyle Larson (1st, 4th, 2nd) and Tyler Reddick (2nd, 1st, 15th). RFK Racing has to be sleepers with Chris Buescher having 2 top 4 finishes in 3 races (3rd, 27th, 4th) and Brad Keselowski three top 10’s (6th, 9th, 8th).
Christopher Bell is heating up (23rd to 8th to 3rd). The rest were too up and down.
Kyle Busch was 11th, 7th, 20th. William Byron was 4th, 15th, 9th. Ross Chastain was 5th, 13th, 23rd. Bubba Wallace 7th, 32nd, 14th. Ryan Blaney was 9th, 12th, 22nd. The worst of them all was Martin Truex Jr. at 18th, 36th, 19th.
Race Review Online 