TRACK: Bristol Motor Speedway (.533 mile oval) DISTANCE: 500 Laps — STAGE 1: 125 Laps, STAGE 2: 125 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 250 Laps, MILES (266.5 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

• Starting spot is key. 4 of the last 5 came from a top 5 starting spot. Chris Buescher started 20th last year. This year’s short track starting spots: 3rd, 9th, 19th, 17th, 2nd, 26th.
• Chevy has three wins in the last 17 races at Bristol.
• 3 of the last 5 Bristol race have went the final green to checkered stretch of at least 82 laps. Last year’s was 57 laps.
• We’ve had 5 different teams win the last 5 races. JGR and Penske won in 2019, SHR in 2020, HMS in 2021 and RFK Racing last year.
• A total of 15 different drivers have won the third race of the Playoffs, led by Jimmie Johnson (2008, 2013), Greg Biffle (2007, 2010), and Tony Stewart (2006, 2009) with two each.
• Four times the third race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has been won by a non-Playoff driver.
  • In 2005, NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Jarrett was 14th in points when he won the Talladega Superspeedway Playoff race.
  • Then in 2006, NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart was ranked 11th in points when he won the Kansas Speedway Playoff race.
  • Greg Biffle was ranked 14th in points when he won the 2007 Kansas Playoff race.
  • Chris Buescher won last year’s race.

Since the inception of the Playoffs in 2004, four times the winner of the third race of the postseason has gone on to win the title that same year.  

In 2008, Jimmie Johnson won the third race of the Playoffs at Kansas Speedway and went on to win his third consecutive title. It was his first of three Playoff wins that season (Kansas, Martinsville-2, Phoenix-2).

In 2012, Brad Keselowski won the third race of the Playoffs at Dover International Speedway and went on to win his first series title. It was Keselowski’s lone win during the 2012 Playoffs. In 2013, Jimmie Johnson won the third race of the Playoffs at Dover International Speedway and went on to win his sixth series title. It was his first of two Playoff wins that season (Dover-2, Texas-2) for the Hendrick Motorsports driver. Kyle Larson did the same last year.

Since the introduction of the ‘elimination style’ format of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2014, several drivers have raced their way into the Round of 12 in the third and final cutoff race of the Round of 16.

2014: Heading to the Dover (third race of the Playoffs) in 2014, Denny Hamlin was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings and six points back from the Round of 12 cutoff. Hamlin finished 12th at Dover and advanced on points, knocking AJ Allmendinger (23rd-place finish at Dover) out of the Playoffs.

2015: Heading to the Dover (third race of the Playoffs) in 2015, Kevin Harvick was ranked 15th in the Playoff standings, 23 points back from the Round of 12 cutoff and Kyle Busch was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings just one point behind the Round of 12 cutoff. Kevin Harvick won the race at Dover and automatically advanced to the next round. Kyle Busch finished second at Dover and advanced on points to the Round of 12 knocking Jamie McMurray (fourth-place finish at Dover) and Jimmie Johnson (41st-place finish due to mechanical issues at Dover) out of the Playoffs.

2016: Heading to the Dover (third race of the Playoffs) in 2016, Austin Dillon was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings just five points back from the Round of 12 cutoff. Dillon finished eighth at Dover and advanced on points knocking Kyle Larson (25th-place finish at Dover) out of the Playoffs.

2017: The four drivers below the Round of 12 cutline heading into the third race of the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at Dover International Speedway – Ryan Newman, Austin Dillon, Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch – all failed to advance to the Round of 12 and were eliminated from the Playoffs following the Dover race.

2018: Heading to the Charlotte ROVAL (third race of the Playoffs) in 2018, Clint Bowyer was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings and four points back from the Round of 12 cutoff. Bowyer finished third at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course and advanced on points knocking Austin Dillon (39th-place finish at the Charlotte ROVAL due to an incident) out of the Playoffs.

2019: Heading to the Charlotte ROVAL (third race of the Playoffs) in 2019, Clint Bowyer was ranked 14th in the Playoff standings, four points back from the Round of 12 cutoff and Alex Bowman was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings just two points behind the Round of 12 cutoff. Bowyer finished fourth and Alex Bowman finished second at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. Both drivers advanced on points to the Round of 12 knocking Kyle Larson (13th-place finish at Charlotte) and Aric Almirola (14th-place finish at Charlotte) out of the Playoffs.

2020: Like 2017, all four drivers below the cutline failed to advance.

2021: Alex Bowman and William Byron bumped their ways in while Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch were bounced. Byron was -18 while Bowman was tied with Busch for the final spot. Almirola was +3.

2022: Tyler Reddick was +2 with Chase Briscoe -9 but Reddick was left out and Briscoe bumping his way in. Coming into the race, Daniel Suarez (+6), Tyler Reddick (+2), Austin Cindric (+2), Kyle Busch (-2), Austin Dillon (-3), Chase Briscoe (-9) and Kevin Harvick (-35) were on the bubble.

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TRACK COMPARISONS

Bristol is a high banked concrete short track. Most similar to Dover although this track is half the size. Multiple grooves settle in as the race goes on. Can risk pit strategy here. Lapped traffic plays a key role in determining the outcome of this track.

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Favorites

Kyle Larson (+550)

Two wins (Richmond, Martinsville), and four Top-4 finishes in six short track starts this season. At Bristol, Larson has seven Top-10 finishes in his last eight tries including four Top-6’s in the last five. He was runner-up in both 2018 races and won this race in 2021. He’s also led 202, 70, 200, 17, 0, 62, 175 and 34 laps in his last eight Bristol races. He has a pair of Top-4 finishes in as many playoff races thus far too.

William Byron (+750)

He has three Top-8’s in his last four races here, three Top-8’s in the last four races on the season and was third and fourth the last two years at Bristol in general. While he won Phoenix and was fourth in Dover, he also has finished 21st or worse in four of the last five short track races too.

Denny Hamlin (+750)

Four straight Top-7 finishes on short tracks, ninth the last two years and four Top-10 finishes in his last six Bristol starts including a win in 2019. He has five Top-3 finishes in his last eight starts on the season and a week after leading the most laps in Darlington, he was a few laps away from winning in Kansas.

Brad Keselowski (+850)

Had a car capable of winning last year and has four Top-10 finishes in his last five short track starts including being eighth, fifth and sixth the last three. He has five Top-10 finishes in the last seven weeks of the season.

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Sleepers

Chase Elliott (+1000)

Runner-up last year. He led 42 laps. He led 129 laps in 2021 too. He also nearly won the race in the spring event of 2020, but won the All-Star race instead in July of that year. Elliott, was also seventh in this race in 2020, fifth in this race in 2019 and third in 2018. The only thing is, on short tracks this season, he’s finished 10th, 11th, 12th,1 7th. He has four Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks on the season.

Joey Logano (+1200)

Prior to being 27th last year, Logano had been stout at Bristol lately. He had seven top 10s in his last 12 Bristol starts and if not for late race contact with Chase Elliott in the spring of 2020, he would have won or at the very least finished second then too. He also has finished 11th, seventh, second, 31st, second and fourth on short tracks this season. He has three Top-10 finishes in the last five weeks of the season too.

Kevin Harvick (+1400)

He won in 2020, was runner-up in 2021 and 10th last year. Why not here? He has four Top-10 finishes, three of which in the Top-5, in six short track starts this season. While he has no Top-10 finishes this postseason, if not for an unlucky caution in Darlington, he was on target for a win. Last week in Kansas, he had a car capable of a better finish than 11th too.

Chris Buescher (+1200)

He won last year, won Richmond this year. Worth a look. Four top 6’s in his last five Bristol starts puts him on this list. He has five Top-7 finishes in the last seven weeks of the season including three wins.

Erik Jones (+6000)

Has a pair of Top-10 finishes in the playoffs thus far. Won a playoff race as a non postseason participant last year and was third last week. In this particular race itself, he’s finished second, fifth, 22nd, third, eighth and 21st respectively. He also has two Xfinity Series wins on this track as well.

Chase Briscoe (+10000)

14th a year ago and five Top-12 finishes in six short track starts this season (7th, 12th, 5th, 30th, 10th, 11th).

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Who To Fade?

Christopher Bell (+800)

His last 3 Bristol finishes were 28th, 29th, fourth respectively. However, on short tracks this season, he’s also finished sixth, fourth 16th, sixth, 29th, 20th too. He has just one Top-5 finish since Easter which was his last win. That was here…on dirt.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

Busch, has three top two finishes in his last six starts on the concrete including four top four finishes in his last six races. Also, Busch finished runner-up in the 2020 All-Star race as well here and won on dirt last April for his only win of the season. However, he was 34th in this race last year and calls short tracks his worst this season with 4 of his last 5 finishes on them being 14th or worse. He has two seventh place results in the last three weeks but just one single Top-5 in the last nine races overall.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1400)

Two wins and four straight Top-7 finishes on short tracks this season. However, he finishes last a week ago, was last here last season and has had only two Top-10 finishes in his last 19 Bristol tries. He’s been 20th or worse in 14 of the last 17 there at that.

Ross Chastain (+1400)

Sixth last year but 13th or worse in four of six short track races this season too. Just two Top-10 finishes in the last 11 races and only two Top-5 finishes in the last 16.

Ryan Blaney (+1600)

2 career Bristol Top-5 finishes and 14th or worse in three of his last five short track starts this season too. He’s not had a Top-5 finish since Memorial Day weekend (15 races).

Tyler Reddick (+1600)

He finished fourth in this race in 2020 but 12th and 25th the last two years. He does have three Top-7 finishes in six short track starts this season though too and finishes of second and first in the playoffs.

Bubba Wallace (+2800)

13th, 22nd, 9th, 12th, 8th, 12th on short tracks this season. Just two Top-10 finishes in the last 14 weeks of the season too.

Alex Bowman (+5500)

Fifth and 32nd the last two years here. He has no Top-5 finishes on short tracks this season. One Top-5 in the last 19 races on the season too.

Daniel Suarez (+9000)

No Top-10 finishes on short tracks this season land him here. He’s finished 22nd, 23rd, 17th, 35th, 16th, 33rd on them this season.

Michael McDowell (+10000)

11th last year but 13th, sixth, 19th, 22nd, 13th, 22nd on like tracks this year.

Austin Dillon (+25000)

Just 1 top 10 in his last 10 Bristol tries.