Short Track Package
There’s no denying the fact that the short track package has been lacking the last couple of seasons. Credit the Next Gen for that decline in performance. Last year’s Bristol race wasn’t what we all thought it would be. Heck, none of the short tracks were.
NASCAR tried this offseason to made adjustments to make the package better. It hasn’t worked. They’ve even tested this year to try for more mandates to help. By all accounts, they’re not helping either.
With all the cut races being on short tracks (Bristol, Martinsville) and road courses (Charlotte ROVAL) and even the championship being decided on a track with this package (Phoenix), can we see better racing this time around or are we in trouble?
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race last year got folks perked up. A one lane bottom groove race track that if you wanted to pass, you had to use the bumper. That’s the old Bristol. Would the old Bristol make a return for the main event?
The new Bristol has progressive banking to where you can run multiple grooves in the corners with the high lane around the top being one of the preferred lanes.
However, fans were begging for that to go away and a return to the old way. The truck race proved that it can happen.
The track sprayed PJ1 on the bottom and 4 feet off the bottom lane to. It’s adding grip to the low lane in hopes of making this the preferred groove.
The Cup race was far from it. The exact opposite or so to speak. The high line was the preferred line again tonight and featured a race where the bumper wasn’t once used and 12 lead changes among 6 drivers ensued.
It leads to the question again on if Bristol is in the right place on the schedule with this package. Several drivers have warned over the last few years that a short track in the playoffs is risky because you can’t take the risk of collecting damage early and costing yourself stage points. As a result, you get some follow the leader racing.
Then with the short track package badly needing some help to spice up the racing, you get a parade to where the only drama occurred due to mechanical failures.
To have just 12 lead changes and only a couple of them for on track passes for the top spot and just one real crash that wasn’t sparked by a tire going down, this wasn’t very Bristol like.
“It was pretty tough. We pitted in front of the 17, so just kind of the way the year has gone. Just went from having a chance to lead the parade to being a part of the parade,” Kevin Harvick said last year. “Just difficult to pass. Parted it way too fast through the corners. Can’t race.”
With this new car, one part to it is an increase in tire size. That bigger tires lead to more grip in the turns and as a result, you get higher cornering speeds.
Denny Hamlin said it felt like they were going quicker in the corners than they were on the straights. With minimal tire fall off outside of the ones that blew, it just doesn’t create for very good racing.
“Had good track position from our qualifying effort but passing was just impossible,” he said. “It was just a type of day where you needed to stay up front at all costs and we just couldn’t quite do it and ended up having a blown tire that set us back and we were trying to play catch up from that point. (The Next Gen car) was tough. I would like to see the racing improve overall. Some lap time variation a little bit. We’re just running around there and it’s like we’re running faster in the corners than we are on the straightaways. Just extremely hard to pass. We had some steering issues, and it looks like our Toyota teammates also had steering issues. We just battled through it and held on to a ninth place today. … We can win anywhere we go to. We’ll go to Texas and try to win like we always do. Just need to get a good, solid round going. Just seems like mechanical stuff with this Next Gen and wrecks are the X-factor in moving on so you just have to be really consistent and with five races to go, that’s when you have to start winning.”
For a short track to work, you need slower corning speeds and more tire fall off. When you get neither, it makes for a tough night.
Attrition?
The playoff this season has seen a lot of attrition among playoff drivers. 7 drivers had issues in the Southern 500 and 4 more in Kansas.
Denny Hamlin’s loose wheel in Darlington to Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr’s woes to Bubba Wallace’s spin to Kyle Busch getting into the wall to Michael McDowell crashing and Kevin Harvick’s bad luck, it was a bum deal for them.
Last Sunday, William Byron spun, Chris Buescher crashed and Bubba Wallace and Martin Truex Jr. cut down tires and found the wall.
That plus Last year’s race at Bristol seeing a lot of issues too is reason of attrition being a thing on Saturday night.
Last August was the 1st race with the Next Gen’s at Bristol, it proved to be a race of attrition. It started early and often and was very much manufacturer specific. Does it happen again?
8 of the 16 playoff drivers last year had issues.
In Stage 1, Ford’s were battling right front tire problems. It started with both Harrison Burton and JJ Yeley on Lap 41 and carried on through the end of the stage. Austin Cindric and then Ryan Blaney were the next 2 up on Lap 91.
If you noticed a theme?
Team Penske and their alliance car with Burton at the Wood Brothers.
“You never know what can happen and having that flat, there’s nothing that we can do about it,” said Ryan Blaney last year. “You’re lucky you have that cushion going into this race. The most unfortunate part is our car was super fast, too. That was the terrible thing about it. The worst part about it now, looking back. The car was really good and just had no indication. It seemed like a lot of guys had right-front problems tonight, but I’m proud of everybody for getting it fixed up and just out there to finish the race. There really wasn’t much we could do, just log laps and let everything play itself out. That’s why you try to have two good races beforehand because you never know when you’re gonna need some points.”
Stage 2 was power steering problems plaguing the Toyota’s. Bubba Wallace hit pit road on Lap 182 then Ty Gibbs followed seconds later. Each having their power steering bust and leaking all over their right front tires.
16 laps later, Martin Truex Jr. joined them behind the wall with the exact same issue.
Then on Lap 233, it was Denny Hamlin having a right front going down.
The final stage saw more chaos.
On Lap 269, Kyle Busch’s turn with a terminal mechanical failure occurred as he pulled behind the wall with not only his car going up in smoke, but his championship chances as well.
Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Cindric again and Christopher Bell each had tire problems in this final stint to the finish.
“It blew the seal out and pushed all the (power steering) fluid out on the right-front tire. Just unbelievable,” Truex Jr. said. “What did (Kevin) Harvick say? Crappy parts. … You literally can’t drive the car here without power steering. You lose it, you’re done. It’s been a horrible string of luck for us, and we had another strong car tonight. We were working our way forward, every run going forward. Ready for this year to be over and start over.”
Most of this can be tied to a number of factors but the glaring one is the inaugural trip here with this car and not much to base their setups off with. A high banked concrete track with lots of loads on these tires and cars can easily cause mechanical failures like we’ve seen.
To have it in a playoff elimination race?
Chaos.
Does Anyone New Bump Their Ways In
Since the introduction of the ‘elimination style’ format of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2014, several drivers have raced their way into the Round of 12 in the third and final cutoff race of the Round of 16. Right now, we know that Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick are automatically into the Round of 12. There’s still 10 spots left for the taking.
Heading into Bristol, Denny Hamlin (+49), William Byron (+41), Brad Keselowski (+33), Ryan Blaney (+25), Kyle Busch (+24), Ross Chastain (+18), Chris Buescher (+13), Christopher Bell (+13), Joey Logano (+12) and Kevin Harvick (+7) holds the wildcard spots.
Martin Truex Jr. (-7), Bubba Wallace (-19), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-22) and Michael McDowell (-40) are trying to bump their ways back in. Can they do so on Saturday night?
The odds are good that at least one of them does. 7 of the 9 years someone did including 2 of the 3 in Bristol.
2014: Heading to the Dover (third race of the Playoffs) in 2014, Denny Hamlin was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings and six points back from the Round of 12 cutoff. Hamlin finished 12th at Dover and advanced on points, knocking AJ Allmendinger (23rd-place finish at Dover) out of the Playoffs.
2015: Heading to the Dover (third race of the Playoffs) in 2015, Kevin Harvick was ranked 15th in the Playoff standings, 23 points back from the Round of 12 cutoff and Kyle Busch was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings just one point behind the Round of 12 cutoff. Kevin Harvick won the race at Dover and automatically advanced to the next round. Kyle Busch finished second at Dover and advanced on points to the Round of 12 knocking Jamie McMurray (fourth-place finish at Dover) and Jimmie Johnson (41st-place finish due to mechanical issues at Dover) out of the Playoffs.
2016: Heading to the Dover (third race of the Playoffs) in 2016, Austin Dillon was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings just five points back from the Round of 12 cutoff. Dillon finished eighth at Dover and advanced on points knocking Kyle Larson (25th-place finish at Dover) out of the Playoffs.
2017: The four drivers below the Round of 12 cutline heading into the third race of the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at Dover International Speedway – Ryan Newman, Austin Dillon, Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch – all failed to advance to the Round of 12 and were eliminated from the Playoffs following the Dover race.
2018: Heading to the Charlotte ROVAL (third race of the Playoffs) in 2018, Clint Bowyer was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings and four points back from the Round of 12 cutoff. Bowyer finished third at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course and advanced on points knocking Austin Dillon (39th-place finish at the Charlotte ROVAL due to an incident) out of the Playoffs.
2019: Heading to the Charlotte ROVAL (third race of the Playoffs) in 2019, Clint Bowyer was ranked 14th in the Playoff standings, four points back from the Round of 12 cutoff and Alex Bowman was ranked 13th in the Playoff standings just two points behind the Round of 12 cutoff. Bowyer finished fourth and Alex Bowman finished second at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. Both drivers advanced on points to the Round of 12 knocking Kyle Larson (13th-place finish at Charlotte) and Aric Almirola (14th-place finish at Charlotte) out of the Playoffs.
2020: Like 2017, all four drivers below the cutline failed to advance.
2021: Alex Bowman and William Byron bumped their ways in while Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch were bounced. Byron was -18 while Bowman was tied with Busch for the final spot. Almirola was +3.
2022: Tyler Reddick was +2 with Chase Briscoe -9 but Reddick was left out and Briscoe bumping his way in. Coming into the race, Daniel Suarez (+6), Tyler Reddick (+2), Austin Cindric (+2), Kyle Busch (-2), Austin Dillon (-3), Chase Briscoe (-9) and Kevin Harvick (-35) were on the bubble.
The thing is, the bottom two above the cutline are former series champions.
Harvick won in 2020, was runner-up in 2021 and 10th last year. He has four Top-10 finishes, three of which in the Top-5, in six short track starts this season too. While he has no Top-10 finishes this postseason, if not for an unlucky caution in Darlington, he was on target for a win. Last week in Kansas, he had a car capable of a better finish than 11th too.
Prior to being 27th last year, Logano had been stout at Bristol lately. He had seven top 10s in his last 12 Bristol starts and if not for late race contact with Chase Elliott in the spring of 2020, he would have won or at the very least finished second then too. He also has finished 11th, seventh, second, 31st, second and fourth on short tracks this season. He has three Top-10 finishes in the last five weeks of the season too.
Above them are Bell and Buescher, the last two Bristol winners.
Buescher is the defending race winner and has just won Richmond this year too. He has four top 6’s in his last five Bristol starts at that. He has also five Top-7 finishes in the last seven weeks of the season including three wins.
Bell just won at Bristol this spring…on dirt. He proved clutch a year ago winning 2 of the 3 cut races before the Championship 4.
That puts Chastain (+18) and Busch (+24) as the next to catch but is that too much?
The furthest back on points someone came back from was -23 in 2015 by Kevin Harvick. He had to win though. The furthest back on points someone made up was -18. The bottom 3 right now are all -19 back or further.
For Michael McDowell, he was 11th last year but 13th, sixth, 19th, 22nd, 13th, 22nd on like tracks this year. He has 1 top 10 in his last 9 starts on the season and 5 of his last 7 seeing him finish 22nd or worse. He was 32nd in Darlington and 26th in Kansas.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is better here but he’s never won. He finished 13th or worse in his last 7 starts on the season including 16th and 23rd in the playoffs.
Bubba Wallace was 29th in this race last year and 16th in 2021. On short tracks this season, he’s finished 13th, 22nd, 9th, 12th, 8th, 12th. He has just two top 10 finishes in the last 14 races on the season too.
Martin Truex Jr. is the surprising one. Issues in Darlington left him 18th. An early crash in Kansas saw him finish last. The regular season champion is on the brink of elimination. This is not a strong track for him either.
He was last here last season and has had only two Top-10 finishes in his last 19 Bristol tries. He’s been 20th or worse in 14 of the last 17 there at that.
That’s why despite two wins and four straight Top-7 finishes on short tracks this season, I’m worried about his chances.
The regular season champion has made it to the Round of 8 every year and to the Championships 4 in all but one (Harvick 2020).
The second-place driver in playoff points made the final round in 4 of the 6 years too and all but one has at least made it to the Round of 8.
In 2017, Joey Logano missed the playoffs altogether. A year later, he won the first of his two NASCAR Cup Series titles. In that same 2017 season, Martin Truex Jr. hoisted his first career Cup championship trophy. Last year, he missed the playoffs. Can he do what Logano did and win the title a year after missing the postseason?
Truex enters this year’s edition as the No. 2 seed as he took home his second career regular season title. The other time that he won it?
2017.
The thing is, can he score enough points to catch the bottom four on the positive side of the cutline?
Has Stage Racing Has Altered Bristol Setups?
Getting off to a good start matters this weekend in the sense that not all 16 playoff drivers start can start in the top 10. If you do the math, at the very least, six of them can’t score stage points. With advancing to the second round or not coming down to likely a mere few points, you need to position yourself up front by the end of the first stage.
Several drivers have told me that for this reason, stage racing has altered your Bristol setups. In the past, you used to set your car up for the second half of the race. You’d go into it with a car that you knew would be good from Lap 250 on. You can’t do that anymore. You have to set it up for Lap 1 because of how crucial stage points are. You can’t give them up.
The playoff bubble is tight and stage points can be the reason you move onto the Round of 12 or are eliminated instead, especially this year with so many drivers within a few points above or below the cut line.
Without much practice and without a race here this spring on concrete, you better hope that from Lap 1 on, you have the right communication to work on the car as the race goes on and stay ahead of it. If not, you could score stage points in the first stage but falter as the race goes on. You need to be setup from the get-go but tinker with the car as the race goes on to remain relevant.
Non Playoff Winner
- Four times the third race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has been won by a non-Playoff driver.
- In 2005, NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Jarrett was 14th in points when he won the Talladega Superspeedway Playoff race.
- Then in 2006, NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart was ranked 11th in points when he won the Kansas Speedway Playoff race.
- Greg Biffle was ranked 14th in points when he won the 2007 Kansas Playoff race.
- Chris Buescher won last year’s race.
This year, Chase Elliott comes to mind. He was 8th and 6th the last 2 weeks and is always strong here. So is Erik Jones who won a playoff race a year ago and was 10th and 3rd the last 2 weeks.
Thing To Ponder
It’s no secret, the crowds were dropping year over year for the two Bristol races. That’s why the change was made to do something about the spring race. They were fearful of Bristol being forced to lose a date and the one in question would be the steepest decline in attendance and that being the spring event. So in came dirt. It was controversial and still some wonder if it was the right decision.
However, higher ratings and a boost in attendance says otherwise. As a result of that though, does that add to the intrigue of the summer night race?
This used to be a huge event on the schedule and while it remained big, it wasn’t like it used to be. However, moving the race into the playoffs and now having the spring race on dirt, does that add to the allure of the night race now?
The crowds surely are to go up and this is after all, the only time to see NASCAR on the concrete portion of the track. For those whining about dirt on Bristol, they’ll surely put their money where their mouths are and show up this weekend, right?
Actually they likely will. The attendance seemed bigger in 2021 and again in 2022 and I expect it even bigger in 2023.
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