Last year, Martin Truex Jr. was in the top five of the points standings in the regular season. Unfortunately for him, he was also winless and with 15 different winners in the 26-race regular season, he was on the outside looking in.

Now, despite being the regular season champion and having the second most points scored (904) all season, is on the brink of elimination.

He’s 121 points clear of 7th place but 7 points behind the cutline. That’s the nature of the playoffs.

The old system, he’d be leading the points by a large margin. With the playoffs, he’s not safe. In fact, he could very well become the first regular season champion to get bounced in the first round of the playoffs in Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol.

Talk about a gut punch.

The regular season champion has made it to the Round of 8 every year and to the Championships 4 in all but one (Kevin Harvick 2020). When he was the regular season champion in 2017, he won his lone championship that year too.

This year, he was seeded No. 2. The second-place driver in playoff points made the final round in 4 of the 6 years too and all but one has at least made it to the Round of 8.

In 2017, Joey Logano missed the playoffs altogether. A year later, he won the first of his two NASCAR Cup Series titles. In that same 2017 season, Truex Jr. hoisted his first career Cup championship trophy. Last year, he missed the playoffs. Can he do what Logano did and win the title a year after missing the postseason?

He may not last past Round 1.

Issues in Darlington left him 18th. An early crash in Kansas saw him finish last. He has one more shot to get on the good side of the cutline in at the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway.

Unfortunately for him, this isn’t a strong track of his.

He finished last here last season and has had only two Top-10 finishes in his last 19 Bristol tries. He’s been 20th or worse in 14 of the last 17 there at that.That’s why despite two wins and four straight Top-7 finishes on short tracks this season, I’m worried about his chances.

The thing is, can he score enough points to catch the bottom four on the positive side of the cutline?

The thing is, the bottom two above the cutline are former series champions.

Harvick won in 2020, was runner-up in 2021 and 10th last year. He has four Top-10 finishes, three of which in the Top-5, in six short track starts this season too. While he has no Top-10 finishes this postseason, if not for an unlucky caution in Darlington, he was on target for a win. Last week in Kansas, he had a car capable of a better finish than 11th too.

Prior to being 27th last year, Logano had been stout at Bristol lately. He had seven top 10s in his last 12 Bristol starts and if not for late race contact with Chase Elliott in the spring of 2020, he would have won or at the very least finished second then too. He also has finished 11th, seventh, second, 31st, second and fourth on short tracks this season. He has three Top-10 finishes in the last five weeks of the season too.

Above them are Bell and Buescher, the last two Bristol winners.

Buescher is the defending race winner and has just won Richmond this year too. He has four top 6’s in his last five Bristol starts at that. He has also five Top-7 finishes in the last seven weeks of the season including three wins.

Bell just won at Bristol this spring…on dirt. He proved clutch a year ago winning 2 of the 3 cut races before the Championship 4.

That puts Chastain (+18) and Busch (+24) as the next to catch but is that too much?

The furthest back on points someone came back from was -23 in 2015 by Kevin Harvick. He had to win though. The furthest back on points someone made up was -18. The bottom 3 right now are all -19 back or further.

That’s why it’s really up to Truex to get it done.

7 of the 9 years someone did bump their ways from outside to in for the opening round cut race, including 2 of the 3 at Bristol.

Can Truex make it happen?