Eric Smith

5 thoughts leading up to Bristol from 1st two playoff races thus far

Hamlin, Larson, Reddick Looks Like Championship Contenders

Denny Hamlin led 177 of 367 laps in the Southern 500 and 63 of 268 last Sunday in Kansas. While he’s winless in both races this postseason, it goes to show you that sometimes, the best car doesn’t always win.

Hamlin felt he had a loose wheel late at Darlington and had an unscheduled stop as a result. Despite sweeping both stages, he came home 25th. Last week, he had the race won before Chris Buescher’s cut tire and crash. He pit for four tires. It was the right strategy but he didn’t win. He came home second.

As a result, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick did win the first two races. Larson has finished 1st and 4th in the playoffs and Reddick 2nd and 1st. Between these two and Hamlin, they look like the early Championship 4 front runners.

Larson was always good at Darlington but just couldn’t ever get the job done. Reddick gave the 45 ride the 3rd win in the last 4 Kansas races all by different drivers.

Mistakes

The playoff this season has seen a lot of attrition among playoff drivers. 7 drivers had issues in the Southern 500 and 4 more in Kansas.

Denny Hamlin’s loose wheel in Darlington to Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr’s woes to Bubba Wallace’s spin to Kyle Busch getting into the wall to Michael McDowell crashing and Kevin Harvick’s bad luck, it was a bum deal for them.

Last Sunday in Kansas, William Byron spun, Chris Buescher crashed and Bubba Wallace and Martin Truex Jr. cut down tires and found the wall.

McDowell and Wallace had no room for error. It’s why they’re below the cutline. Truex had a mulligan, but not two. He’s also below the cutline.

With that said, Saturday night’s race could be as chaotic as the first two.

Last year’s race at Bristol saw a lot of issues too. It was the 1st race with the Next Gen’s at Bristol, and sparked a lot of attrition.

Does that help or hurt drivers like Truex or Wallace who are trying to points their ways in? It’s going to be hard to top the bottom four on the good side of the cutline.

Chris Buescher and Christopher Bell won the last two Bristol races, Buescher in this one a year ago and Bell on dirt this spring. The two belong them are past series champions in Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano.

Ford’s have been strong on short tracks this season so it seems like if Truex or Wallace want to points their way in, they need attrition to happen to those on the cutline bubble. Unfortunately, with two issues in two races for both, it could strike them as well.

8 of the 16 playoff drivers last year had issues.

DARLINGTON, SOUTH CAROLINA – SEPTEMBER 04: Erik Jones, driver of the #43 FOCUSfactor Chevrolet, drives during the NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 04, 2022 in Darlington, South Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Legacy Motor Club Shining

Legacy Motor Club has been in a lame duck scenario with the impending switch from Chevrolet to Toyota power in 2024. However, despite a slow start to the season, they’ve not given up. In fact, they’re ascending.

In two playoff races, Erik Jones’ average finish is 4.33. He was third last week. Carson Hocevar has driven the No. 42 Chevrolet in both races and was 17th and 20th. Gragson had 2 finishes of 20th or better in that ride. Josh Berry was 34th and 22nd.

Hocevar is doing more and then some in his opportunities in it while Jones looks like a contender.

Elliott Getting Job Done

Chase Elliott has to be mad at himself for not only the snowboarding incident this past winter that cost him six races, but that one race suspension in June too. If he didn’t have that happen, he did enough to make the playoffs even without winning. However, the No. 9 Chevrolet is in the owners points race though and with finishes of 8th and 6th the last two weeks, he’s doing enough for that ride to make the Round of 12.

Elliott +12 on the owners race and has scored 4 top 8 finishes in the last 5 races overall. He led more laps Sunday (47) than he did all season (42) prior.

Ford’s Have Gotten By

Ford’s have led just 29 laps all postseason. 2 of the 29 were by JJ Yeley. He led 1 lap in Darlington and 1 in Kansas. In fact, Harvick was the only other driver to lead in Darlington as they led 2 laps all race.

Kansas saw Brad Keselowski lead 23 laps himself.

However, among the 6 Ford playoff drivers, 5 of them come to the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway on the good side of the cutline. While they’re not leading laps, they’re getting by.

Brad Keselowski has finished 6th and 9th. His teammate Chris Buescher was 3rd in Darlington but 27th in Kansas.

Ryan Blaney has finished 9th and 12th with Joey Logano 12th and 5th.

Kevin Harvick has finished 19th and 11th but had a cap capable of winning at Darlington.

Michael McDowell is in the most trouble. He’s finished only 32nd and 26th.

Still if they can get 5 of the 12 into the second round, watch out. Talladega looms and that’s their strongest package.

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