Josh Berry got this all started when he was announced as the driver of the No. 4 Ford replacing the departing Kevin Harvick. Then it was Martin Truex Jr. as the next domino as he announced this summer that he’d return to the No. 19 Toyota for another season. On Sunday, Denny Hamlin confirmed that he’ll also be returning to his No. 11 Toyota for the foreseeable future. As a result, it locks 23XI Racing into Toyota with Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick both being back.

When it was announced that both Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton would have a crew chief swap, the wording made mention that Burton is back with the Wood Brothers in 2024.

Now, John Hunter Nemechek’s long rumored move to Legacy Motor Club was confirmed too.

Which leaves what?

Hendrick Motorsports will boast the same four-car line in 2024. So will Joe Gibbs Racing. Team Penske has the same trio. Front Row Motorsports already announced they’ll stay status quo with Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland. Trackhouse, RCR and RFK Racing will each keep the same two drivers. JTG will keep Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Spire has Corey LaJoie returning.

Which honestly in regards to Chevrolet, has both Kaulig Racing seats open and the second seat with Spire available.

AJ Allmendinger likely returns to his Kaulig seat which has honestly 2 rides open.

Toyota is set with everyone returning and adding LMC with Erik Jones and Nemechek.

Ford has Rick Ware Racing signing Justin Haley. Their other seat is open. The only other thing available is are two Stewart-Haas Racing rides.

That’s it.

Aric Almirola and Ryan Preece are free agents. Rumor is that they may sell a charter or two. SHR needs Almirola and his sponsor Smithfield but if he elects to walk away, then I’ve heard Smithfield may follow. If that happens, you can see why SHR may scale back.

Charters have a high asking price and with SHR already paying Berry without a lot of funding yet in place, can they house three cars?

The No. 41 Ford that Preece drivers does have some funding but it’s typically been Haas paying for that seat. Can they afford to pay most races on the 4, 10 and 41?

Which is why this is the next domino.

Zane Smith could end up there as Ford doesn’t want to lose him, but what if they do scale back? The other side is, does it do Smith any good without veteran leadership of a Cup team to learn? Is that a disservice? If they stay a four car team and have a lineup of Chase Briscoe, Berry and Preece to go along with Smith, how good can they realistically be coming out of this funk? They need veteran leadership.

Which is why 2024 may not be a good situation for Smith to go into.

Carson Hocevar could be high on the list of Spire but what about JR Motorsports which has the 8 seat open? What about the second Kaulig seat?

He’s making a big name for himself.

Noah Gragson could be in the mix for the Kaulig ride to rebuild his reputation. I’ve also heard him name mentioned as coming back to the Toyota camp and take over the 20 ride at JGR that Nemechek is leaving. That would be a dose of humble pie in the fact that he and Ty Gibbs don’t exactly see eye-to-eye.

This could be a wild time in the next month or so as silly season is almost wrapped up with what’s left being a big deal one way or the other.