TRACK: Kansas Speedway (1.5-mile oval) DISTANCE: 267 Laps – Stage 1: 80 Laps, Stage 2: 80 Laps, Final Stage: 107 Laps (400.5 miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

This will be the 36th Cup Series race at the Kansas Speedway. The NASCAR Cup Series 1st started coming to the Sunflower State in 2001.

Recently paved which makes this a very difficult track to pass on too. Outside lane is better, but there is a chance to take the lead from the inside. Mostly a restart/track position track. You can gamble on 2 tires or depending on how late you are in the race, 0 tires. Clean air is key here.

• Each of the last 7 Kansas winners have started in the top 10.
• 13 of the last 15 Kansas winners started in the top 6 Rows.
• Toyota has won 6 of the last 8 Kansas races (3 straight) including 8 of the last 13. They swept last year.
• Toyota’s went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race a year ago (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the Fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) a year ago. This spring, they went 1-4-8-9 and combined to lead 148 of 267 (55.4%)
• We’ve seen 10 different winners in the last 12 Kansas races. Only repeat winner is Denny Hamlin.
• There’s been no OT finishes in each of the last 7 races including 13 of the last 15 in general.
• The eventual race winner scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era with the exception of last year’s spring race. Denny Hamlin won Stage 1 this spring.
• The eventual race winner finished in the top 5 in 6 of the last 8 2nd stages and 9 of the 13 overall second stages. Hamlin was 10th this spring.
• The odd thing is, just twice has the eventual race winner at Kansas actually won a second stage (2019 playoff race, May 2022).
• Since 2011, every Kansas winner has won a series championship with the exception of Hamlin and Bubba Wallace.
• In fact, only Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Joe Nemechek and Wallace have won at Kansas and not also won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list but only for a few months in the Fall of 2021 before he became a champion.
• 3x has the winner of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway has gone on to win the title that same season
• Four non-Playoff drivers have won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway:
  • In 2004, Joe Nemechek won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was ranked 21st in the points at the time of the win.
  • In 2006, NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was 11th in points at the time of the victory.
  • In 2007, Greg Biffle won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was 14th in points at the time of the win.  
  • In 2022, Bubba Wallace won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was 19th at the time of the win.
• The worst finish in a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway by a driver that went on to win the championship later that same season was 17th last year by Joey Logano. The previous worst was 15th by NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart in 2011.

Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+450)

The only driver to have won multiple times here in the last 12 races and was fourth and second here last year to go along with his win this spring. The last driver to sweep Kansas in a single season was Martin Truex Jr. in 2017. Hamlin did win two straight between 2019 (Playoff race) and 2020 (Spring Race). He led 177 laps last week and swept both stages.

Martin Truex Jr. (+550)

Since 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in all but one Kansas start including sweeping both race wins in 2017. He finished sixth and fifth last year, eighth this past spring and was seventh this past March in Vegas. He’s had a Top-8 finish in four of the six intermediate races this season too.

Kyle Larson (+550)

He dominated in leading the most laps but not winning the 2021 spring race. He then would win the playoff race though in the Fall of 2021. He was runner-up and eighth respectively last year and runner-up (85 laps led) again this spring for his ninth top 8, five of which being in the Top-4 in his last nine Kansas tries. Larson led 63 laps and finished runner-up this spring in Vegas too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished in the Top-4 in four of the six races.

William Byron (+750)

He has seven Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at Kansas including being ninth and sixth respectively last year and third this past spring. Byron also led 176 laps in a Vegas win this spring too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished first, third, first, second, eighth and fourth respectively.

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Sleepers

23XI Racing

The 45 car swept both races last year via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1200) in the Fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in last year’s May race while Wallace led 58 laps in his Fall win. Wallace was also fourth this past spring in Vegas, fourth here, fifth and seventh in Darlington and fourth in Charlotte this season too. Tyler Reddick (+900) with RCR last year was seventh and 35th but that 35th was a crash after leading 38 laps. He was ninth here this spring and enters having finished runner-up on Sunday night in Darlington. He’s got three Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks.

Alex Bowman (+3000)

Bowman has seven top 11 results on the 1.5-mile track in his last 10 tries in this car, including being runner-up in the spring race in 2019, eighth and fourth respectively in 2020 and ninth and fourth last year. He won on a similar track in Las Vegas last spring and was third this past spring there too.

Austin Dillon (+25000)

He was 10th in both races in 2021 to go along with being 11th in the 2020 playoff race and 13th and 14th last year. Dillon was also 10th this past spring too.

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Fades

Christopher Bell (+900)

He scored his first Xfinity race win at this very track a few years ago as well as being 10th, eighth and third in the last three Kansas playoff races and fifth in the spring race last year. Bell was also fifth in Vegas too. My only pause was him being 36th, 14th, 24th, 11th and 23rd on the other intermediate tracks this season.

Kyle Busch (+1400)

He won in May of 2021 and has six Top-5 finishes in his last 10 Kansas starts. However, 35th this spring gives me pause. So does 14th in Vegas. He was seventh and 11th in Darlington, sixth in Charlotte and did win Gateway too. He also has just one Top-5 finish in the last eight races too.

Ross Chastain (+1600)

Seventh in both races last year and fifth this spring could land him on the sleepers list. However, they’ve struggled on these tracks in 2023 with his other finishes on these tracks being 12th, 29th, 22nd, 22nd and fifth.

Kevin Harvick (+2000)

Harvick, has eight top two finishes at Kansas since 2013. However, he was only 15th and 11th the last two May’s and ninth in this race last year. He is a great fantasy play (9th, 11th, 2nd, 11th, 10th, 19th) on intermediate tracks this season, but, not an outright winner.

Chase Elliott (+2200)

He’s had seven Top-7 finishes in his last 10 Kansas starts including being fifth and second in 2021. However, being 29th and 11th last year and seventh this spring doesn’t give me a lot of option to take him.

Team Penske:

Austin Cindric (+40000) was 11th and 12th respectively last year as a rookie and 31st this past spring. Ryan Blaney (+2200) has had six of his last nine Kansas races have seen him finish 16th or worse and 12th and ninth last year. For Joey Logano (+2200) he’s finished 15th or worse in six of his last nine at Kansas. They were sixth (Cindric), 13th (Blaney) and 36th (Logano) in Vegas, 6-16-31 this spring too.

Daniel Suarez (+8000)

33rd and 10th last year and 15th this past spring.

Chase Briscoe (+25500)

He was 24th and 13th a year ago and 32nd this spring.

Aric Almirola (+25000)

No top five finishes in 22 starts puts him on this list.