Hendrick vs. Toyota
Hendrick Motorsports just went 1-2-3 this past March in Las Vegas which saw them combine to lead 250 of the 271 laps that day. They went 1-2 in Stage 1 and 1-2-3 in Stage 2. Last Fall in Kansas, they took two of the top three non-Toyota finishers including the top two. This past spring, they went 2-3 and led 95 laps between them. Are they the top ones to knock off Toyota?
Kyle Larson just gave HMS their 299th career Cup Series win. Is win No. 300 coming on Sunday?
Toyota has won 6 of the last 8 Kansas races (3 straight) including 8 of the last 13. They swept last year.
Toyota’s also went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race a year ago (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the Fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) a year ago. This spring, they went 1-4-8-9 and combined to lead 148 of 267 (55.4%).
Just last Sunday in Darlington, they led 307 of 367 laps. The only reason they didn’t win was self inflicted mistakes.
Denny Hamlin is the only driver to have won multiple times here in the last 12 races and was fourth and second here last year to go along with his win this spring. The last driver to sweep Kansas in a single season was Martin Truex Jr. in 2017. Hamlin did win two straight between 2019 (Playoff race) and 2020 (Spring Race). He led 177 laps in Darlington and if not for a loose wheel, he had the field covered.
Martin Truex Jr. has had a Top-10 finish in all but one Kansas start since 2017. He finished sixth and fifth last year, eighth this past spring and was seventh this past March in Vegas. He’s had a Top-8 finish in four of the six intermediate races this season too.
Christopher Bell scored his first Xfinity race win at this very track a few years ago as well as being 10th, eighth and third in the last three Kansas playoff races and fifth in the spring race last year. Bell was also fifth in Vegas too.
For 23XI Racing, the 45 car swept both races last year via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1800) in the Fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in last year’s May race while Wallace led 58 laps in his Fall win. Wallace was also fourth this past spring in Vegas, fourth here, fifth and ?? in Darlington and fourth in Charlotte this season too. Tyler Reddick (+750) with RCR last year was seventh and 35th but that 35th was a crash after leading 38 laps. He was ninth here this spring and comes into the race on the heels of a runner-up finish.
That’s a tough group.
However, Larson dominated in leading the most laps but not winning the 2021 spring race. He then would win the playoff race though in the Fall of 2021. He was runner-up and eighth respectively last year and runner-up (85 laps led) again this spring for his ninth top 8, five of which being in the Top-4 in his last nine Kansas tries. Larson led 63 laps and finished runner-up this spring in Vegas too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished in the Top-4 in four of the six races.
William Byron has seven Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at Kansas including being ninth and sixth respectively last year and third this past spring. Byron also led 176 laps in a Vegas win this spring too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished first, third, first, second, eighth and 4th respectively.
I think it’s down to these drivers to win…
Who’s Needing A Good Race
With 2 races remaining in the opening round, Bubba Wallace (-1), Kevin Harvick (-2), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-4) and Michael McDowell (-19) enter Sunday’s race below the cutline. They want to leave here within striking distance heading to Bristol.
For Stenhouse and McDowell, not many felt like they’d make it out of this round and after Stenhouse was 16th and McDowell getting caught up in a late crash and finishing 32nd, they’re out of mulligans.
McDowell is 0-for-24 in regards to top 10’s at Kansas. He finished 16th in this race last year and 23rd in the spring. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished 25th or worse in 5 of the 6. In Bristol, McDowell was 11th last year but 13th, sixth, 19th, 22nd, 13th, 22nd on like tracks this year.
Stenhouse has 1 top 10 on intermediates this season. 7 of his last 8 Kansas finishes have been 12th or worse. He was 30th in this race last year. He’s good at Bristol and may head there facing a must-win.
Harvick has eight top two finishes at Kansas since 2013. However, he was only 15th and 11th the last two May’s and ninth in this race last year. He is a great fantasy play (9th, 11th, 2nd, 11th, 10th, 19th) on intermediate tracks this season, but, not an outright winner. That plus having won Bristol in 2020, was runner-up in 2021 and 10th last year could put him through into the next round. He has four top 10 finishes, three of which in the top five, in six short track starts this season.
Wallace is sitting good too. He won this race last year, was fourth this past spring in Vegas, fourth here, fifth and 7th in Darlington and fourth in Charlotte this season too.
If they get by, two have to come out. Whom?
The Toyota’s other than Wallace need to. Christopher Bell fell to +1 after leading 40 laps but finishing 23rd in Darlington. Bell scored his first Xfinity race win at this very track a few years ago as well as being 10th, eighth and third in the last three Kansas playoff races and fifth in the spring race last year. Bell was also fifth in Vegas too. My only pause was him being 36th, 14th, 24th, 11th and 23rd on the other intermediate tracks this season. His only win came on dirt but it was at Bristol. His last 3 Bristol finishes were 28th, 29th, 4th respectively. However, on short tracks this season, he’s also finished 6th, 4th, 16th, 6th, 29th, 20th too.
Joey Logano (+3) may be in trouble too. He finished 15th or worse in six of his last nine at Kansas. They were sixth (Cindric), 13th (Blaney) and 36th (Logano) in Vegas, 6-16-31 this spring too. Does he fall below the cutline going to Bristol? Prior to being 27th last year, Logano had been stout at Bristol lately. He had seven top 10s in his last 12 Bristol starts and if not for late race contact with Chase Elliott in the spring of 2020, he would have won or at the very least finished second then too. He also has finished 11th, seventh, second, 31st, second and fourth on short tracks this season.
That’s why 11th through 16th in points right now are needing good races on Sunday.
Race Winner
This is obvious, but let’s dig deeper in the fact that Sunday’s race winner will arguably be a championship contender. Since 2011, every single Kansas winner on this track with the exception of a couple have won a series championship. In fact, only Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace and Joe Nemechek have won at Kansas but also not won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list but only for a few months in the Fall of 2021 before he became a champion.
3x has the winner of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway has gone on to win the title that same season.
The worst finish in a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway by a driver that went on to win the championship later that same season was 17th last year by Joey Logano. The previous worst was 15th by NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart in 2011.
On the flipside, four non-Playoff drivers have won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway including just last year with Bubba Wallace. The other three instances were:
In 2004, Joe Nemechek won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was ranked 21st in the points at the time of the win.
In 2006, NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was 11th in points at the time of the victory.
In 2007, Greg Biffle won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas and was 14th in points at the time of the win.
The worst finish in a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway by a driver that went on to win the championship later that same season was 15th by NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart in 2011.
Why do only the best win on this place?
Crowd
Kansas lucked out that the Kansas City Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl and their home opener is Thursday night. As a result, there’s no head-to-head conflict between this weekend’s race and a Chiefs game which should help the crowd on Sunday.
That’s a good thing because NASCAR doesn’t need or want to run races with dwindling crowds, especially a playoff race.
See, NASCAR is an ever-evolving schedule. Not many tracks are keeping two weekend’s anymore. Kansas is lucky enough to be able to keep doing so. The thing is, just Richmond, Daytona, Vegas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Martinsville, Bristol, Talladega, Darlington, Kansas and Charlotte each host two races each season.
But, if you break them down, NASCAR owns the tracks at Daytona, Talladega, Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, Darlington and Kansas. SMI owns the rest (Vegas, Atlanta, Bristol and Charlotte). Among the SMI dates, Bristol and Charlotte have two separate weekends with Bristol’s spring race being on dirt and Charlotte’s Fall race being on a ROVAL. Vegas and Atlanta are their only two outliers.
Dover, Texas, Pocono, Michigan and Loudon each lost a weekend lately. Chicago and Kentucky are gone.
With NASCAR constantly adding new tracks now, the dates being taken away are those who host two. With Kansas essentially hosting two of the same race weekend’s this season with both falling on a Sunday afternoon, both having the same race distances, there’s nothing that differentiates the two. Does that hurt their cause for keeping two dates?
They have two races for the only fact that they added a casino outside of Turn 2 and have renovated to stay ahead of things for the seating areas. Outside of that, there’s no other reason to come to Kansas twice.
It’s basically the same race. Would it benefit the race to have only 1 visit? I can’t see Kansas wanting to punt on a playoff race, plus it would help the local fans in the decision of Chiefs football vs. NASCAR. You have 7 other home games for football but 1 NASCAR visit. With the way that it’s constructed now with 2 visits, they can choose.
Just look at the tracks that are down to 1 race weekend. Each are seeing some of the biggest crowds at those respective tracks in decades.
Pocono, Michigan, Dover and Loudon are having massive crowds as a result of going down to one race weekend. It’s like the circus, with NASCAR coming once a year. Don’t show up, you have to wait 365 more days until they’re back.
Mistakes
Mistakes happen over the course of a season, but in the playoffs, they’re far more magnified than any other time. Last week, several playoff drivers had issues. What happens on Sunday? With close margins and so much at stake, a loose wheel, a speeding penalty, a mistake on track or anything detrimental can be the difference of making the next round or not.
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