Rookie Of The Year
For the first time since 2007, the season finale won’t mean anything. The championship is clinched. However, there’s another battle worth watching and that’s the rookie of the year race between Marcus Armstrong and Agustin Canapino. Does Honda get a second straight ROY or does Chevy pick up a 3rd ROY in the last 4 years?
Armstrong leads Canapino by 26 points.
Andretti, RLL, McLaren Spoilers?
With a race of nothing much to lose, how does Sunday’s race look? Normally, this could be a Penske vs. Ganassi battle.
Last Sunday was Ganassi’s 5th straight natural road course and combined with Penske they’ve won all 6 races on these tracks this season.
For podiums, Ganassi has 6, Penske and Andretti each have 3 while DCR and RLL both have 1. Penske and Ganassi swept the podium last year and had 2 of the 3 in the 2 races prior.
At Mid-Ohio, the podium read Ganassi-Ganassi-Penske. In Road America, it was Ganassi-Penske-McLaren. Portland was Ganassi-McLaren-Ganassi.
Can anyone stop them on Sunday?
We know that the Andretti Autosport cars could be strong, so can they play spoiler on Sunday?They had some terrible luck last week in Portland. However, they’re always strong in Laguna.
Prior to last year, Colton Herta had won each of the last 2 races here and led all but 11 laps in those events at that. Last year, he was 2nd in Friday’s practice and 5th on Saturday. He only finished 11th though.
Romain Grosjean finished 3rd in 2021 and 7th last year.
McLaren could be strong too.
Pato O’Ward was 5th and 8th in his two Monterey tries. He was also 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 3rd and 4th on natural road courses this year too.
Alexander Rossi was 6th in 2019 and 10th last year. 8th, 3rd, 10th, 10th, 5th and 20th are his natural road course finishes in 2023.
Felix Rosenqvist has 2 top 5’s in 3 tries here including 4th last year. He’s also finished 9th, 5th, 20th, 25th, 27th and 2nd on natural road courses in 2023 too.
Also don’t sleep on the RLL teammates of Christian Lundgaard and Graham Rahal.
Lundgaard finished fifth as a rookie last year. At Barber, he qualified sixth and finished there. At Road America he started 7th and finished there too. At Indy, he was on the pole and finished 4th then qualified 2nd and finished 4th again last month with Mid-Ohio coming from 5th to finish 4th. Last week in Portland, he was held up in qualifying but rebounded to come from 17th to finish 11th.
Rahal was only 18th last year but was fourth the year prior. Rahal qualified in Row 4 for the GMR Grand Prix and overcame being punted on Lap 1 for a top 10 and qualified on the front row in Mid-Ohio and finished seventh. He also won the pole and finished second in last month’s Gallagher Grand Prix too. On top of that, Rahal won the pole last week but strategy took him to 12th instead.
Repave
We saw how much the repave changed things in Road America, with another one here, how much of a role does that play?
“I’m excited for Laguna. I think our road course pace as of recent should continue there. Obviously, the place has been completely resurfaced so it’s going to be quite different from what we’ve had there before,” Graham Rahal said. “I would imagine tire degradation will be improved compared to what we’ve had in the past. It will also be interesting to see what tire we are running there and how that will play out. It’s good to go back.
Monterey used to be an older track surface with tons of tire fall off. Similar to Darlington in sense of low grip, high tire wear. You have to slow down to go fast. Be smooth.
Now, the entire track surface has been repaved like Road America was. How much of a role does that play. It didn’t do much to Road America as the heavy hitters were found up front still.
Here, it changes the way you drive this track. You can actually attack every corner now.
“The track has been resurfaced so I think everyone will come there with a new mindset of perhaps what we showed up at Road America with, setup wise,” said Christian Lundgaard. “We were competitive there so we will likely also be at Laguna Seca.”
Points Battles
Alex Palou has ran away with this year’s championship. Scott Dixon ran away with 2nd. The battle behind them is something to watch.
Newgarden has finished 2nd in each of the last 3 points championships but the best he can do now is 3rd. He’s finished in the top 2 in 4 of the last 6 season finales including 3 straight years too (1st, 2nd, 2nd). Can he remain in 3rd? Honestly, he may have a harder time holding off Scott McLaughlin and Pato O’Ward for that spot.
He leads O’Ward by 9 and McLaughlin by 22.
McLaughlin went from 14th in points in 2021 to 4th last year. Can he get at least 4th this year or even the top Penske driver?
O’Ward is 4th right now, the best non Penske and Ganassi driver. He’s finished 4th, 3rd, 7th in points in his first three years. He has 3 podiums in the last 6 races on the season and has finishes of 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 3rd, 4th on natural road courses this season. What a year it would be for him to be this high in points and this quiet. Also, if he beats the Penske’s, he’d be the top Chevy driver in points too.
Not only this, the race for 5th and 10th is still up for grabs too. Being 5th looks better than 6th or 7th and being 10th is a lot better than 11th or 12th.
Marcus Ericsson went from 17th (2019) to 12th (2020) to 6th (2021) to 6th again last year. Coming into Sunday, he sits…P6 in points. He’s 25 points behind McLaughlin for 5th.
Will Power has 12 top 5 points finishes in the last 13 years. He’s too far back in points in doing so this year as he’s in P7.
Colton Herta is 10th but has alternated season finale wins in going 1st to 11th to 1st to 11th to…1st?He’s finished 7th, 3rd, 5th and 10th in points during his career.
He’s after his former teammate Alexander Rossi who’s worst points finish is 11th as a rookie in 2016. Since then, he finished 7th, 2nd, 3rd 9th, 10th, 9th and currently sits…9th.
It’s all about positioning.
Will Power’s Last Chance to Win, Winless Droughts
Will Power has won at least one race every season since 2007. The defending series champion is winless in the first 16 races run in his championship defense. He’s almost out of time.
Palou went winless for the first 16 races a year ago before winning the season finale. The only time someone went winless was Scott Dixon in 2004. Ironically enough, that’s the only season since 2003 that Dixon didn’t win a race during.
Can Power avoid their company?
Champions And How Long It Took To Win The Next Season
2022 – Alex Palou 16 races – won the 17th and final race
2021 – Scott Dixon – won the 3rd race at Texas
2020 – Josef Newgarden – won the 6th race at Iowa
2019 – Scott Dixon – won the 8th race in Belle Isle
2018 – Josef Newgarden won the 4th race at Barber
2017 – Simon Pagenaud – won the 4th race at Phoenix
2016 – Scott Dixon – won the 2nd race at Phoenix
2015 – Will Power – won the 5th race in the Indy Grand Prix
2014 – Scott Dixon – won the 15th race at Mid-Ohio
2013- Ryan Hunter-Reay – won the 2nd race at Barber
2012 – Dario Franchitti – won the 5th race in the Indy 500
2011 – Dario Franchitti – won the season opener at St. Pete
2010 – Dario Franchitti – won the 6th race in the Indy 500
2009 – Scott Dixon – won the 3rd race at Kansas
2008 – Dario Franchitti – went to NASCAR
2007 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the 7th race at Texas
2006 – Dan Wheldon – won the season opener at Homestead
2005 – Tony Kanaan – won the 8th race at Kansas
2004 – Scott Dixon – winless
2003 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the 12th race at Kentucky
2002 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the season opener at Homestead
2001 – Buddy Lazier – won the 6th race at Pikes Peak
2000 – Greg Ray – won the 7th race at Phoenix
1999 – Kenny Brack – won the 4th race in the Indy 500
1998 – Tony Stewart – won the season opener in Disney
1997 – Scott Sharp – won the season opener in Loudon
Power’s 41 career wins rank fifth all-time. So, there’s a high likelihood that he can find victory lane this season. However, he’s running out of time.
He has finished 2nd, 26th and 3rd in his three Laguna Seca tries.
He’s not the only one hoping to end a drought. No one wants to go winless throughout an entire season. Heading into the season finale, here’s who’s riding a longer winless streak: Graham Rahal (107 races ago – Belle Isle 2017), Felix Rosenqvist (60 races ago – Road America 2020), Rinus VeeKay (45 starts ago – GMR Grand Prix 2021), Helio Castroneves (39 races ago – Indianapolis 2021), Colton Herta (29 races ago – GMR Grand Prix 2022), Will Power (27 races ago – Belle Isle 2022), Pato O’Ward (22 races ago – Iowa 2022), Alexander Rossi (21 races ago – Gallagher Grand Prix 2021).
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