It’s race day in the Pacific Northwest. Sunday’s BITNILE.com Grand Prix of Portland (3 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network) is going to be decided on pit strategy. We know this is a 110-lap race. To get from the start to the finish line, you’ll need three pit stops.
However, this year’s race is going to come down to tire strategy. What tire is the preferred one? In most years, it’s the Firestone alternate. However, this year could be different.
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“I mean, that’s kind of been the trend here the past couple of years,” Andretti Autosport’s Kyle Kirkwood said on Friday. “Granted, when we get our information from Firestone, it says that it’s likely to wear faster for this weekend.
“So it’s still a little bit of an uncertainty, I would say. You never really know until after warmup, but I would say based on practice one field, the fact that we were able to run a certain lap time and then go back out and still be quicker than the primary tires indicates kind of towards a red race, but like I said, we won’t know until warmup.”
Arrow McLaren Racing’s Felix Rosenqvist agreed.
“Yeah, I mean, historically it’s kind of been a red race. So I thought the gap lap time-wise was pretty big,” he noted. “It was like a second I think for most drivers. So, yeah, that’s what I’m predicting.”
However, Graham Rahal, today’s pole sitter, feels it’s the actually the opposite.
“Obviously it was nice to run the blacks. I think Firestone has done a good job here,” he said. “The tire is very, very tricky though, the red and the black, frankly. There’s big deg. The peak is very, very early. I think reds after lap 2 are pretty well gone.
“I think the reds are going to throw a lot of people for a twist tomorrow.
“This race has always been a red race, traditionally has, and I think we might see some different stuff this year, which is why we were keeping all those blacks, frankly, to be able to go into the race with.
“We’ll see what happens.”
As a result, he feels like this could be a Firestone primary race instead. At least he’s hoping. Rahal feels like his No. 15 Dallara-Honda was better on the primary tires than the reds. His pole on blacks proved so.
“We really struggled with the reds yesterday,” said Rahal. “Really struggled with the reds. So a lot of what we had to do today was just to get the car to rotate for those specifically.
“To be honest, it’s everywhere. I don’t think the tires are that different. I think the red is softer, but when — the reason I went to blacks was because on the very first outing, I was P1 and group 1 on the blacks, and I did like a 58.30 or something, so my red pace wasn’t much quicker it at all. That’s why at the end I just felt, hey, I don’t think I’m going to be able to do that again on reds, and so I went for the blacks.
” I think that the front tire gets really heat saturated and it gives up. It’s like 10, 11 — 10 you’re flying, 11, and then you get to 12 and the tire is just hot and it gives up and is pretty lazy.
“So to get it to rotate, you’re doing a lot of stuff that’s not very good for the race.
“Like I said, I think we’ve just got to go back on that a little bit.”
The thing is, Rahal says that the reds will fall off with higher temps, but it’s likely going to be cloudy and in the 70s on Sunday which as a result, could help the reds in the long run.
“The hotter the temp, I think it’s going to kill the reds,” said Rahal. “They saturate very quickly. I think they get very hot, and it creates further problems.
“But tomorrow is a cooler day, too, and if you’re up front, God bless we have a good start and we can do that.
“When you’re in that position, I think you can try to take care of them and maintain the reds a little bit better.
“Let’s see what we get, frankly. Let’s see what we get tomorrow, go racing, and hopefully have a good clean start and make those things last as long as we can.
“To do this in two, you’ve got to go, what, 35, 36 laps on your reds? That’s a lot to ask. I’ve already done it this weekend on blacks, so I know the blacks can do it and do it competitively, but it’s a lot to ask of the reds, I think.
“Most people won’t do it, too, to be clear, but if you tried.”
Last year, 5 of the top 6 starters elected to go with the reds on the first stint including each of the top 2 rows. The winning strategy was to pit on Lap 21 and go back to reds, then pit on Lap 49 for blacks and go to Lap 79 for the final set of reds.
13 of the bottom 14 starters each went with blacks to starts but everyone was on reds for the final stint.
This year, the top three are on reds but the four cars behind them are each on primary tires. Which’s the strategy from pit stop 1? Last year it was run the first stint until around Lap 20-21. The strategy was to put on reds for the second stint. They ran it until Lap 49 before pitting for blacks. That’s because the final stint was on reds again so this way it was best served to use the blacks for the third stint.
Which is the best tire to run the final stint with? That will dictate what you do on tire strategy for your first and second pit stops.
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