TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS
- 11 of the last 12 races at Portland have been won from a top 3 starter.
- 22 of the last 24 races here in Portland were won from a starter in the top 5 at that.
- The last 3 races were won from the front row: 2nd, 1st, 1st
- Portland went dormant from 2008 through 2017 without INDYCAR before a return in 2018. They came back in 2019 but didn’t visit in 2020 due to COVID restrictions.
- Portland differs in the sense Turn 1 is crazy, the track layout evens things up and pit strategy in turn is key.
- There wasn’t a first lap crash last year, but one in 2021 and again in 2019 with four cars that time around. There was a five car crash in Turn 1, Lap 1 of 2018. More times than not when CART/Champ Car came to the Pacific Northwest track, the same corner produced opening lap cautions.
- Once you get through the 1st corner on Lap 1, the race is one where fuel saving is crucial. With a shorter track but more laps available, finding a lap or two to save during a stint is beneficial for the final stint.
- The other factor is that Portland is a track that’s an equalizer. There’s long straights that give Chevrolet an advantage. There’s slower corners which help the Honda’s. That should have this more of an even playing field for the teams this weekend too.
TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM
Over the last 26 races on these tracks (Since the Aeroscreen debut in 2020), Ganassi is the best team with 11 trips to victory lane. Penske is next best with 9. The only other teams to have won is Andretti (4 wins), Arrow McLaren (1 win) and Ed Carpenter Racing (1 win).
They’re also tops among podiums too.
Penske has 23, Ganassi 23 and Andretti 17 in 75 opportunities. The next best is a steep drop to McLaren with 6. DCR (4), ECR (3) and RLL (3) are the only other teams with podiums.
Among the top drivers?
Alex Palou has the most wins (7). Five drivers are behind him with three wins apiece. Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, Colton Herta and Scott Dixon are those drivers.
Alexander Rossi, Pato O’Ward, Felix Rosenqvist and Rinus VeeKay each have one win.
This season, McLaughlin win at Barber back in late April while Palou won the GMR Grand Prix (Indianapolis), Road America and Mid-Ohio. Dixon won last month in Indy.
For podiums, Palou leads Power by one (14-13) with Rossi next best with nine. Dixon has 7 while Herta and Newgarden both have six. O’Ward (5), Romain Grosjean (4), McLaughlin (3), VeeKay (3), Graham Rahal (2) and Marcus Ericsson (2) have multiple podiums.
Simon Pagenaud, Rosenqvist, Christian Lundgaard and Ryan Hunter-Reay have one.
For Portland, Penske and Ganassi have combined to have won each of the last 3 races (Penske 2, Ganassi 1) with RLL taking the other.
For podiums, Ganassi has 4, Penske and Andretti each have 3 while DCR and RLL both have 1.
Favorites
Graham Rahal
10th to 5th the last two years. He qualified in Row 4 for the GMR Grand Prix and overcame being punted on Lap 1 for a top 10 and qualified on the front row in Mid-Ohio and finished seventh. He was on the pole at Indy and came home runner-up too. He now starts 1st and was 4th in practice on Saturday too.
Scott McLaughlin
Led 5 laps to finish ninth as a rookie in 2021 only to start on the pole and lead 104 of 110 laps en route to a win last year. He won at Barber and was also eighth in Road America and fifth at Mid-Ohio too. He has 9 straight top 8 finishes on the season. He was quickest in Saturday’s practice and starts 2nd.
Scott Dixon
3 top five finishes in 4 tries including two consecutive third place finishes. Dixon has also finished 7th, 6th, 4th, 2nd and 1st respectively on natural road courses in 2023. Since May, Dixon has finished 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 5th, 1st, 1st. That’s an average finish of 4.09 in that 11 race stretch. He starts 4th. He was P3 in Saturday’s practice.
Alex Palou
He qualified on the pole and won in 2021 but 12th last year from a 4th place start. On natural road courses in 2023, Palou has finished 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 7th. He’s not finished worse than 8th all season. He was 3rd and 5th in practice this weekend and starts 5th.
Colton Herta
He won poles in Road America and Mid-Ohio. A bad pit call kept him out of victory lane in Road America and speeding on pit road kept him off the podium in Mid-Ohio. Still, at Portland, Herta has started 1st, 6th and 7th and finished 4th, 8th and 6th. Now, he rolls off 3rd. My only concern is his finishes on these tracks are 14th, 9th, 5th, 11th and 13th too. Still, Herta has 3 top 7 finishes in the last 6 races on the season too.
Sleepers
Pato O’Ward
Qualified 5th and finished 4th last year. Was also 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 3rd on natural road courses this year too. He has 8 consecutive top 10 finishes on the season including improving in each of the last 4 races (10th to 8th to 3rd to 2nd). He starts 6th. He was 4th and 9th in practice this weekend.
Alexander Rossi
8th, 3rd, 7th, 2nd are his four Portland finishes. 8th, 3rd, 10th, 10th and 5th are his natural road course finishes in 2023. Rossi has scored back-to-back top 5 finishes now on the season too. He was 9th and 11th in practice and rolls off 9th.
Felix Rosenqvist
He’s qualified 5th, 4th, 6th and finished 2nd, 6th, 19th at Portland. He’s also finished 9th, 5th, 20th, 25th and 27th on natural road courses in 2023 too. He was 5th and 10th in practice and starts 11th.
Christian Lundgaard
Qualified third last year but spun later while running in the top five. At Barber, he qualified sixth and finished there. At Road America he started 7th and finished there too. At Indy, he was on the pole and finished 4th with Mid-Ohio coming from 5th to finish 4th. Last month in Indy, he started 2nd and finished 4th again. While he starts 17th, it’s not like he doesn’t have a fast car either. He was quickest on Friday. He was held up by a slower car in qualifying in front.
Callum Ilott
He did finish ninth a year ago, but was 25th in 2022 and 18th, 18th, 18th, 16th and 17th respectively on like tracks this season. However, Ilott qualified an impressive 8th on Saturday too.
Fades
Josef Newgarden
He’s 4-for-4 in top 10 finishes here, but hasn’t finished better than 5th overall though either. On natural road courses this season, he’s also finished 15th, 7th, 2nd, 12th and 25th respectively. He’s came home 25th in each of the last two races on the season at that.
Will Power
He won here in 2019 and runner-up last year, but was 21st and 13th in his other 2 starts. He also has a pair of third place finishes this season at Barber and Mid-Ohio but 12th (Indy 1), 6th (Indy 2) and 13th (Road America) too.
Marcus Ericsson
He finished 7th here in 2021 and 11th last year. Ericsson finished 10th, 8th, 6th, 27th and 10th respectively on natural road courses this season too.
Meyer Shank Racing
Jack Harvey came from 20th to finish 4th here in 2021. Simon Pagenaud was only 23rd last year though. On natural road courses this season, Pagenaud 18th, 25th and 14th this year. He missed Mid-Ohio due to injury but Conor Daly finished 20th in his steed. Linus Lundqvist was 12th in Indy 2. Now it’s Tom Blomqvist’s turn.
Helio Castroneves has no top 10 finishes in 2 tries here and was only 21st, 22nd, 15th, 21st and 15th respectively on natural road courses run in 2023.
Top 5 Picks
- 15 Rahal – He was going to win Indy if not for Scott Dixon doing Scott Dixon things. I don’t think that happens again.
- 3 McLaughlin – Too good here not to capitalize on the starting spot.
- 9 Dixon – He gets on the podium but not much further up.
- 10 Palou – I think he just shadows Dixon on Sunday to secure his 2nd championship in 3 years.
- 5 O’Ward – Another top 5 for the Arrow McLaren Racing driver.
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