Will Qualifying Dictate Who Wins Next 2 Races?
The race for the championship could come down to qualifying. For the final two races, track position is everything and cautions don’t typically flip the fields here as often as one would think.
For Portland, 11 of the last 13 races there were won by a top 4 starter including three straight here from the front row. A week later in Monterey, 22 of the 25 races there were won by a top 4 starter.
It’s why qualifying may dictate who wins this year’s title.
10 of the 15 races run this season were won by a starter from the top 2 rows. On natural road courses, they came from 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 15th.
Can Will Power Pick Up Win Over Final 2 Races?
Will Power has won at least one race every season since 2007. The defending series champion is winless in the first 15 races run in his championship defense. Can he pick up a win over the final two races to keep this streak alive?
Palou went winless for the first 16 races a year ago before winning the season finale. The last time someone went that long was Scott Dixon going 14 races in 2014. Dixon went winless in 2004.
Sam Hornish Jr. was winless in 11 races in 2003.
Can Power avoid their company?
Champions And How Long It Took To Win The Next Season
2022 – Alex Palou 16 races – won the 17th and final race
2021 – Scott Dixon – won the 3rd race at Texas
2020 – Josef Newgarden – won the 6th race at Iowa
2019 – Scott Dixon – won the 8th race in Belle Isle
2018 – Josef Newgarden won the 4th race at Barber
2017 – Simon Pagenaud – won the 4th race at Phoenix
2016 – Scott Dixon – won the 2nd race at Phoenix
2015 – Will Power – won the 5th race in the Indy Grand Prix
2014 – Scott Dixon – won the 15th race at Mid-Ohio
2013- Ryan Hunter-Reay – won the 2nd race at Barber
2012 – Dario Franchitti – won the 5th race in the Indy 500
2011 – Dario Franchitti – won the season opener at St. Pete
2010 – Dario Franchitti – won the 6th race in the Indy 500
2009 – Scott Dixon – won the 3rd race at Kansas
2008 – Dario Franchitti – went to NASCAR
2007 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the 7th race at Texas
2006 – Dan Wheldon – won the season opener at Homestead
2005 – Tony Kanaan – won the 8th race at Kansas
2004 – Scott Dixon – winless
2003 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the 12th race at Kentucky
2002 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the season opener at Homestead
2001 – Buddy Lazier – won the 6th race at Pikes Peak
2000 – Greg Ray – won the 7th race at Phoenix
1999 – Kenny Brack – won the 4th race in the Indy 500
1998 – Tony Stewart – won the season opener in Disney
1997 – Scott Sharp – won the season opener in Loudon
Power’s 41 career wins rank fifth all-time. So, there’s a high likelihood that he can find victory lane this season. However, he’s running out of time.
He has two top two finishes including a win in 2019 at Portland in his last three tries there while also being 2nd, 26th and 3rd in his three Laguna Seca tries.
Will We Escape A 1st Lap Crash Again?
Death. Taxes. Crash in Turn 1, Lap 1 of the Grand Prix of Portland. However, it didn’t happen last year. Do we see a second straight year of everyone making it through Turn 1?
Prior to last year’s race, INDYCAR made a change to the start procedure allowing the front row participants of Scott McLaughlin and Will Power to accelerate exiting Turn 12. That was in hopes of spreading out the field entering Turn 1.
While they’d be going faster, it also could have created some space in a way that the cars behind will be slowing in Turn 12 before accelerating themselves.
The alternative was having everyone on the front straight in hopes of a slower Turn 1 entry but in seen in support races, that is creating more havoc.
“We gave them input at the Christmas meetings,” said Power last year. “We suggested that they start on the back straight. I’m not sure where starting extremely late came from. I could understand you don’t get the tow effects, getting up to speed to get a tow effect.
“But if you had half the field in turn 12 when you went green, that’s half the cars that are spreading out. Might be better to go really early.”
Now, do we see a similar instance?
The last time that a first lap crash occurred here was back in 2021 and it ironically enough, helped those that were involved.
Still, when we come back here this weekend, we have to know that a crash could occur and could do so at any spot in the field. I mean the 2021 crash happened with the guys up front.
Since we’ve came back here in 2018, we’ve had an opening lap crash in the first corner in all but last year’s race.
I mean the situation isn’t a good design. From a wide front stretch with a lot of real estate to work with on a straightaway that span 2,450 feet to then dive into a tight right hand corner and a quick left after.
“There’s always room on the inside,” said Power. “They’re used to braking on the very outside of the track, it’s super wide. Obviously [on the inside] your 90 degrees is going to be much sharper. You’re going to have to brake much earlier than you have been. I think that’s most of the issue.”
With 27 cars fighting for the same spots, nothing good can come out of it. With massive championship implications for Portland, I’m curious who gets through Turn 1 unscathed at the start and who doesn’t.
“It’s definitely the most unpredictable turn in the series,” Josef Newgarden said. “I can tell you that. When it goes according to plan, it’s fine. More times than not, that doesn’t happen.”
Is Portland The Great Equalizer?
Portland has long straights that give Chevrolet an advantage. Portland also has slower corners which help the Honda’s. That should have this more of an even playing field for the teams this weekend too.
Does that make this track the great equalizer among the camps?
Last year, we saw 2 Chevy’s and a Honda on the podium. The year before, it was a clean sweep for Honda.
To whom does Portland favor this time around?
Can Anyone Touch Penske or Ganassi?
Over the last 26 races on these tracks (Since the Aeroscreen debut in 2020), Ganassi is the best team with 11 trips to victory lane. Penske is next best with 9. The only other teams to have won is Andretti (4 wins), Arrow McLaren (1 win) and Ed Carpenter Racing (1 win).
They’re also tops among podiums too.
Penske has 23, Ganassi 23 and Andretti 17 in 75 opportunities. The next best is a steep drop to McLaren with 6. DCR (4), ECR (3) and RLL (3) are the only other teams with podiums.
For Portland, Penske and Ganassi have combined to have won each of the last 3 races (Penske 2, Ganassi 1) with RLL taking the other.
For podiums, Ganassi has 4, Penske and Andretti each have 3 while DCR and RLL both have 1. Penske and Ganassi swept the podium last year and had 2 of the 3 in the 2 races prior.
At Mid-Ohio, the podium read Ganassi-Ganassi-Penske. In Road America, it was Ganassi-Penske-McLaren.
Can anyone stop them on Sunday?
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