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Track History and Trends

One of the oldest tracks on the NASCAR schedule. This year will be the 125th race on the South Carolina race track with the first coming on Sept. 4, 1950.

• 4 of the last 5 race winners each started in the top five. Just twice in the previous 17 did that happen.
• Just twice since the 1997 Southern 500 did the pole winner win here (38 races).
• Every race winner at Darlington during the stage era have scored stage points.
  • Stage 2 position of Southern 500 race winners: 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 9th
• What’s odd is, the race winner at Darlington has never won a stage either.
• Chevrolet went 0-for-11 here but has now won two straight.
• Prior to a last year, Toyota had won 3 of the last 4 including 7 of the last 10 overall. They went 0-for-2 last season and didn’t win again in May.
• Toyota drivers combined to lead 92 of 293 laps in the May 2022 race and if not for a late race crash that pretty much took out their entire fleet while running in the top five, they like would have won that day. Then, in the Southern 500, both Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. had problems while leading in the closing laps. Toyota drivers led 213 of 367 laps that night for which combined, they totaled 46.2% (305 of 660) of all laps led here a year ago. They led 157 more this past May.

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FAVORITES

Martin Truex Jr. (+500)

Recent finishes say: 24th, 31st, 31st. However, there’s a story though. He led 28 laps but was caught up in a crash in the 2022 spring race while running in the top five. He led 48 laps in last year’s Southern 500 but his water pump failed while leading. This spring, he led 145 laps but crashed while leading.

He’s also led 248 laps in his dominating Mother’s Day performance in 2021. He backed that up with finishing fourth in that year’s Southern 500. He’s led 914 laps in 22 starts on this track with two wins, four top five finishes and 10 Top-10’s.

Kyle Larson (+550)

Yes, he may have only been 36th and 12th last year and only 20th this past spring. But I also can’t ignore three straight runner-up’s prior and two third place finishes in a three-race span even before that too. He led 45 laps in 2016, 124 laps in 2017, 284 in 2018, 44 in 2019, 156 in the 2021 Southern 500 and 30 in this race last year. All he’s missing is…a win…He was crashed by Ross Chastain while leading late in this past year’s spring race.

Denny Hamlin (+750)

Hamlin has nine Top-10 finishes in his last 13 “Lady in Black” starts including eight of them being in the top five. He’s a four-time Darlington winner and also has four runner-ups there too which includes the last time out for the Southern 500 specifically. 16 overall Top-10 finishes in 22 starts with 801 laps led.

William Byron (+750)

He led laps in both races last year including what was a Top-2 result in in the spring 2022 race but Joey Logano shoved him out of the lead late. Byron has four Top-8 finishes in his last six Darlington starts including a win this spring. He’s led 81 combined laps in the last three races there with only three laps in the seven races prior. The problem is, the last time a driver swept a year at Darlington was back in 2004 (Jimmie Johnson). Granted, we’ve had some years to where we only raced at this track once a year. In saying that, the last time someone won two straight Darlington races was 2005 and 2006 with Greg Biffle.

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Sleepers

Christopher Bell (+1100)

Bell had one of the better cars on this track last year. He started third and second respectively while finishing sixth and fifth. He was only 14th this May though.

Tyler Reddick (+1300)

This track was made for Reddick. Running the high line right up against the wall. Reddick was second and third respectively here a year ago and now is with Toyota power. I’ll overlook the 22nd place finish in May.

Kevin Harvick (+1500)

14 Top-10 finishes in his last 15 tries here including nine of the last 10 in the Top-6 at that. He was runner-up this past May. Harvick led 63 total laps here in 17 starts at Darlington with RCR. He’s already led 755 in 14 starts with SHR.

Chris Buescher (+1500)

Three Top-10 finishes in his last five tries to go along with three wins in the last five weeks of the season too.

Brad Keselowski (+1600)

Worth a look. The former Southern 500 winner (2018) has seven Top-11 finishes in his last 10 Darlington tries including three of his last four being in the Top-7. He was fourth this spring and seventh in this race a year ago.

Joey Logano (+1800)

He won the spring race last year (107 laps led) to go along with being fourth (64 laps led) in the Southern 500. Logano has five Top-8 finishes in his last seven Darlington starts and six career Top-5 finishes there. That’s why his 18th place finish this spring doesn’t necessarily scare me either.

Bubba Wallace (+2800)

Just two Top-10 finishes in 10 Darlington starts. One came in this race last year (9th) and the other this spring (fifth).

Michael McDowell (+10000)

He was an impressive seventh and sixth respectively on this track a year ago.

Justin Haley (+40000)

A pair of Top-8 finishes in his last three tries.

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Fades

Kyle Busch (+1000)

The bad? Three sub 30th place finishes in the last four tries. However, he had a Top-5 car in both races last year but crashed after leading 19 laps while running there in this race and had an engine blow while leading late in the Southern 500 in a race that he led 155 laps in. Prior to that was 10 Top-7 finishes in 12 Darlington starts. The only problem is that he’s had just one win in 23 starts and that coming back in 2008. This car finished in the top three in both races last year.

Ross Chastain (+1100)

He leads a lot of laps at Darlington but also has a lot of crashes too. 26 laps led but a crash (30th place) last year. 20th in this race a year ago too and 93 laps led and a crash while battling for the win this past spring again as well (29th place).

Chase Elliott (+1700)

He has a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three tries on the Lady in Black. Still, Elliott is 0-for-13 at Darlington too.

Ryan Blaney (+1800)

Not a strong suit for him. Just one Top-10 finish in 12 tries. He was 17th and 13th respectively last year.

Erik Jones (+2800)

25th in two of his last three here. However, he also won this race last year for his second Darlington win. The only thing here is, he does have seven Top-8 finishes on this track, but just one since 2021 too.

Alex Bowman (+5500)

Only one Top-5 finish in 11 starts. His last four have seen him finish: 17th, 26th, 29th and 10th respectively.

Daniel Suarez (+5500)

Six of his last eight here have seen him finish 18th or worse.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+10000)

Yes he was eighth here last year, but that’s his only Top-10 finish in 15 Darlington starts too. He was also 35th in a crash in last year’s Southern 500 and 13th this past spring.

Chase Briscoe (+30000)

He won an Xfinity Series race here in emotional fashion in 2020 but was 11th, 19th, 20th, 27th and 17th respectively in his five career Cup Series starts.

Austin Dillon (+20000)

17th last year and 35th this past spring. He did have 3 top 10’s in the four races prior though.

Aric Almirola (+25000)

11th in both races a year ago, but 21st in May and has 0 top 5’s in 16 Darlington starts and just 2 top 10’s too.

AJ Allmendinger (+25000)

23rd in May and has finished 20th or worse in 8 of his 10 Darlington starts.

Austin Cindric (+40000)

18th, 16th and 19th are his three finishes here.

Harrison Burton (+40000)

14th and 21st last year but sixth this spring…