Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN) will once again kickstart the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. 10 races, 16 drivers. Who’ll be left standing on top when the season concludes this Fall at Phoenix?

Joey Logano (No. 11 seed) won last year but all signs point to the defending champion not being able to go back-to-back. In the 9 years of this current playoff format, we’ve seen 7 different champions. No one has won two straight. The last time someone did was Jimmie Johnson is his five-year reign from 2006 through 2010. The last time before that?

Jeff Gordon in 1997 and 1998.

Logano was good on short tracks this 2023 and could contend for the win at Talladega in the Round of 12. However, road courses and intermediate tracks could pose a problem and 2 of the 3 races in the second round are on these tracks.

Likewise for the 2021 series champion in Kyle Larson. Superspeedway’s and road courses have been problem areas for him this season and I can see him getting bounced in the second round for a second straight year. However, if he does get past the Round of 12, he could be a Championship 4 lock with Homestead (defending race winner) and Martinsville (won spring race) looming. Larson has been at his best on short tracks so it’s feast or famine for him.

His teammate William Byron has the best path. He’s tied for the top of the standings with Martin Truex Jr. as each have 36 playoff points.

Three times since 2016 did the #1 seed entering the playoffs win the championship. It happened in odd years at that – 2017, 2019, 2021….2023? They at least made the final round in all but one year (2020). Enter William Byron.

Last year, Byron had 6 top 10 finishes in the 10-race postseason. He just lacked the playoff points. This year, he has them and going back to tracks to where he was good day earlier this season.

Darlington?

He won.

Kansas?

3rd.

Bristol and Texas are first time visits.

Talladega?

7th.

ROVAL? 1st time visit but he won the last road course race of the season in Watkins Glen.

Vegas?

He won.

Homestead? He can win.

Martinsville? He won last year.

Phoenix? He won this spring.

He’s hopeful of becoming the third different Hendrick Motorsports driver to win the championship in the last four years.

The second-place driver in playoff points made the final round in 4 of the 6 years too and all but one has at least made it to the Round of 8. Great stat for Martin Truex Jr..

In 2017, Joey Logano missed the playoffs altogether. A year later, he won the first of his two NASCAR Cup Series titles. In that same 2017 season, Martin Truex Jr. hoisted his first career Cup championship trophy. Last year, he missed the playoffs. Can he do what Logano did and win the title a year after missing the postseason?

Truex enters this year’s edition as the No. 2 seed as he took home his second career regular season title. The other time that he won it?

2017.

Are these two of the four spots between Byron and Truex?

I think Denny Hamlin may have something to say about it. The third-place seeded driver made it to the Championship 4 literally every time. Phenomenal for Hamlin. He’s made the final round in 3 of the last 4 years too.

The thing is, 5 of the 6 years someone outside the top 4 did get through to the Championship 4 but just one (Christopher Bell last year) was lower than the 7th seed.

That’s not great news for fourth seed Chris Buescher if this goes chalk above him. The hottest driver in the sport right now (3 wins in 5 weeks) is trending in the right direction. Plus, the hottest drivers entering the playoffs usually wins the title and just he, Truex Jr., Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Larson fit the bill of those trends.

So if Buescher makes it, then 1 of the 3 above him in points may not.

Behind him, only Kyle Busch, Larson and Christopher Bell fit the mold.

The driver to finish third in the Championship 4 has made it to at least the Round of 8 in each of the last 5 years with 3 of the 6 being in the Championship 4. That’s good news for Christopher Bell for a march through the playoffs but not necessarily the final round. However, he as the 7 seed was Championship 4 bound last year too.

A few sleepers to keep an eye out on are Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. All 3 have the capability to make a run. Wallace could easily win Talladega or Texas in the second round. Reddick could win the ROVAL. Blaney is your Talladega front runner.

The rest are good stories. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Michael McDowell have a run in them but are playing with house money. Kevin Harvick is the feel good story overall.

Despite being winless in the regular season, Harvick enters the postseason with newfound life. Can he make the most ultimate send off to retirement and walk away on top?

Harvick has five final round appearances in the last 8 years, but none in the last three including a first-round defeat last season. Harvick’s won just 2 of his last 105 starts too. The thing is, he was 6th and 5th respectively at Phoenix last year, fifth this year and arguable should have won and that’s his best track overall. So, if he can get back to the Championship 4, watch out.

Playoff Drivers By Age

You have the veterans in Kevin Harvick (47), Martin Truex Jr. (43), Denny Hamlin (42), Brad Keselowski (39), Kyle Busch (38), Michael McDowell (38), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (35).

So are the middle class of Joey Logano (33), Kyle Larson (31), Chris Buescher (30), Ross Chastain (30).

You also have the next wave waiting their turn. Ryan Blaney (29), Bubba Wallace (29), Christopher Bell (28), Tyler Reddick (27), William Byron (25).

Who wins out this Fall?