Top Championship Trends

• Repeat Champ? Not likely — Jimmie Johnson is the last driver to repeat as a Cup Series champion. He did so in his five-year reign from 2006 through 2010. Since, no one has repeated as a champion. Jeff Gordon was the last before Johnson to do so as he did it in 1997 and 1998. Since 1995, those are the only two instances where a driver won consecutive titles? Can Logano accomplish this feat in 2023? Just once in the last four years has the defending champion even made it back to the Championship 4 the following season. Elliott did so in 2021 The last 2 before him were bounced in the Round of 8 and Round of 12 while Larson this past year was eliminated in the Round of 12 himself.
• Parity – We’ve had this playoff format since 2014. In the 9 years of this, we’ve seen 7 different champions. By those accounts, that means Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larosn won’t win the title at Phoenix this November. Jimmie Johnson and Logano just last year, are the only other drivers to win a title in this span.
• The driver to finish 2nd in the points the previous season made it to the Championship 4 in just 2 of the last 5 years, but at least to the Round of 8 in 5 of the last 7. Three times though they missed the playoffs all together. Ross Chastain…enter upset alert.
• The driver to finish third in the Championship 4 has made it to at least the Round of 8 in each of the last 5 years with 3 of the 6 being in the Championship 4. That’s good news for Christopher Bell for a march through the playoffs but not necessarily the final round.
• Playoff points during the regular season matter – 3 of the top 4 in playoff points entering the 2017 season made the Championship 4. In 2018, it was the top 3 making it to the final round. For 2019, all four in the top four of playoff points accumulated entering the playoffs made it to the Championship 4. 2020 saw 4 of the top five. 2021 it was 4 of the top 7.
• Ranks of Championship 4 drivers in playoff points entering the postseason:
  • 2017: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th
  • 2018: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th
  • 2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
  • 2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
  • 2021: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th
  • 2022: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th
• Three times since 2016 did the #1 seed entering the playoffs win the championship. It happened in odd years at that – 2017, 2019, 2021….2023? They at least made the final round in all but one year (2020). Enter William Byron.
• The second-place driver in playoff points made the final round in 4 of the 6 years too and all but one has at least made it to the Round of 8. Great stat for Martin Truex Jr..
• The third-place driver made it literally every time. Phenomenal for Denny Hamlin.
• The thing is, 5 of the 6 years someone outside the top 4 did get through to the Championship 4 but just one (Christopher Bell last year) was lower than the 7th seed.
• Champion likely won’t have won most races during the season — Only three times in the nine-year history of this format did a driver that won the most races during the course of a season actually win the title itself.
• The driver to win the spring race in Phoenix has only went on to win the series championship just three times – Terry Labonte (1984), Dale Earnhardt (1990) and Jeff Gordon (1995). That may not bode well for Byron.
• Eventual champion has actually started each season off slow – It actually pays to have a slower start to a season for some reason. Just last year, Joey Logano didn’t win until his 12th start of the season and he only had two wins in the regular season. A year prior, Kyle Larson had one win in the first 14 races. The year prior to that, Chase Elliott had just one win through the first 22 races. He won the title. In 2018, Logano had one win in the first 32 races but won the championship. Martin Truex Jr. had one trip to victory lane in the first 17 races of the 2017 campaign. He won the championship still. Jimmie Johnson in 2016 was 2-for-29 in 2016 and Harvick 1-for-30 in 2014. They both were champions in those seasons. No driver in this era has won the title but was also shut out in the first 26 races run either.
• In 3 of the last 4 years, we’ve had teammates in the Championship 4
• 2019: JGR (Hamlin, Busch, Truex Jr.)
• 2020: Penske (Keselowski, Logano)
• 2021: JGR (Hamlin, Truex Jr.), HMS (Larson, Elliott)
• JGR has had a driver in the Championship 4 every year.
• Round of 8 Appearances:
• • JGR 23
• • Penske 16
• • HMS 13
• • SHR 13
• • Ganassi 2
• • Trackhouse 1
• • RFR, RCR, Furniture Row, Wood Brothers 1
• Final 4 Appearances:
• • JGR 15
• • Penske 7
• • HMS 6
• • SHR 5
• • Furniture Row, RCR, Trackhouse 1 each

Trends Championship 4

Martin Truex Jr. – Won the 11th race.

Denny Hamlin – Won the 12th race. Only 2 wins this season.

William Byron – Won early and often.

Kyle Larson