While the Chip Ganassi Racing duo of Alex Palou and Scott Dixon have distanced themselves from the pack, the fight behind them is actually an intense one to keep tabs on. 43 points separates the 3rd-6th placed drivers in points.

At one point, it looked like Josef Newgarden was going to run away with being the top Penske driver but now, he only leads teammate Scott McLaughlin by 14 for that distinction.

That’s all predicated by two straight 25th place finishes over the last couple of races. Now, he’s in a real threat to lose out on not only third, but if this continues, Newgarden could realistically drop to fifth. The Tennessee native has finished 2nd in each of the last 3 points championships and 51 points out of doing so right now.

Can he make up 51 points on Dixon over the next two races?

For Portland, Newgarden is 4-for-4 in top 10 finishes here but hasn’t finished better than 5th in any of the 4 races either. On natural road courses this season, he’s also finished 15th, 7th, 2nd, 12th and 25th respectively. 

Laguna Seca is his best bet to maximize points with being 8th, 7th, 2nd there. The track was repaved and at Road America back in June, another repaved surface, he too was runner-up. He’s also finished in the top 2 in 4 of the last 6 season finales including 3 straight years too (1st, 2nd, 2nd). 

However, can he truly stop the slide? The gap he has between he and Dixon (51) is similar to the gap (52) between he and 7th in points Will Power.

That’s why he may have to be looking behind him instead of in front at this point moving forward.

Last year, McLaughlin dominated this race in Portland and was sixth in the season finale. He’s once again coming on strong to end the season.

He’s had a top 8 finish in each of the last 9 races with results of 7th, 8th, 5th, 6th, 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 8th, 5th. Really, it’s the Month of May in Indy that’s been holding him back of making up progress.

His last two GMR Grand Prix finishes?

20th, 16th.

In three Indy 500 starts, he’s also only finished 20th, 29th and 14th respectively.

Outside of that?

He’s thriving.

Really though, if you think about it, Indy is what’s kept him from being closer in the championship right now.

It was just qualifying 16th and finishing there in May’s GMR Grand Prix and finishing 14th after starting there for the Indy 500. Take those two races out, his average finish is 6th. Even if you go back to the start of last season, take out the last two Indy 500’s and the last two GMR Grand Prix’s and his average finish is 6.35.

His average Indy 500 finish? 21st.

His average GMR Grand Prix finish? 18.0

His average Gallagher Grand Prix finish? 11.66.

Everywhere else? 6.35.

See the glaring weakness?

It’s truly astounding that in just his third full-time season that he has the potential to finish ahead of both multiple time champion teammates in the sport. Let that sink in for a moment. He’s on the verge of potentially doing so.

We also can’t over look Pato O’Ward. He’s sandwiched between Newgarden and McLaughlin right now. O’Ward is three points clear of McLaughlin but 11 behind Newgarden.

The Arrow McLaren Racing driver has 3 podiums in the last 5 races and has finishes of 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 3rd on natural road courses this season.

He qualified 5th and finished 4th in Portland last year. He was then 5th and 8th in his two Monterey tries. O’Ward has 8 consecutive top 10 finishes on the season including improving in each of the last 4 races (10th to 8th to 3rd to 2nd).

The 24-year-old is 4th right now, the best non Penske and Ganassi driver. He’s finished 4th, 3rd, 7th in points in his first three years and on the verge of another top 5 finish this year.

He’s closing that gap to the big teams. The last 20 champions have hailed from the Penske, Ganassi or Andretti camps. Ganassi will make this 21 straight.

The last time a team other than the “Big 3” won a championship was Panther in 2002 with Sam Hornish Jr. 

His only issue is not having a win thus far. He’s winless in his last 20 starts. His crux this season has been being overly aggressive at times.

O’Ward had 3 runner-up finishes in the first 5 races of the season. He was 4th in 1 of the other 2 races. The one that he wasn’t was being overzealous in Long Beach.

The Indy 500 he was aggressive on the Lap 192 restart with Marcus Ericsson in Turn 3. He was first, slipped to third by time we got to Turn 1 and when trying to get back, he overstepped it. In Detroit, a bad pit stop while leading and pushing too hard to make up for it saw him catch the wall.

Take those three races out, his average finish on the season is 4.58.

That’s why McLaughlin and O’Ward are a dangerous combo to watch over the final 2 races.