How Cutline Races Look
It’s no secret, the short track and road course package isn’t the best in regards to how the Next Gen races. With all four elimination races being on these types of tracks, I’m curious on how the racing will look on them.
Bristol, Martinsville and Phoenix weren’t barnburners last year and in the case for Martinsville and Phoenix, they weren’t this year either this past spring.
For road courses, Indy and Watkins Glen had two combined cautions over both races, so how will the ROVAL look?
Can Logano Repeat In November?
Jimmie Johnson was the last driver to repeat as a Cup Series champion. He did so in his five-year reign from 2006 through 2010. Since then, no one has repeated as a champion in NASCAR’s premiere series. Jeff Gordon was the last before Johnson to do so as he did it in 1997 and again in 1998.
Since 1995 however, those are the only two instances to where a driver won consecutive titles? Can Joey Logano accomplish this feat in 2023?
Just 4 of the 7 years prior has the defending champion made it back to the Championship 4 the following season. 2 last 3 were bounced in the Round of 8 and Round of 12 respectively.
Logano has made the final round in every other year increments. 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022. Doing so in back-to-back years would be rare for him.
He does have 5 straight Round of 8 appearances and 8 in 9 tries. He also has 2 Championship 4 appearances in the last 5 years including 5 overall and two titles.
Harvick Walk Off?
Despite being winless in the regular season, Harvick enters the postseason with newfound life. Can he make the most ultimate send off to retirement and walk away on top?
Harvick has five final round appearances in the last 8 years, but none in the last three including a first-round defeat last season. Harvick’s won just 2 of his last 105 starts too. The thing is, he was 6th and 5th respectively at Phoenix last year, fifth this year and arguable should have won and that’s his best track overall. So, if he can get back to the Championship 4, watch out.
Is This Hamlin’s Year?
How does one define greatness anymore? It’s a touchy subject. Some say nothing else matters other than championship rings. Others say you shouldn’t discount regular season success. So where’s the line that separates the good from the great and the elite from the legendary status?
That’s relevant because it’s a topic that surrounds Denny Hamlin right now. I don’t think there’s any reason of doubt to say that Hamlin is a for sure First Ballot Hall of Famer in this sport. 50 Cup Series wins in an era that’s growing more and more increasingly difficult to win, he’s still winning in bunches.
He’s won almost all the crown jewels now. He’s a 3-time Daytona 500 champion, as well as reaching victory lane 3 times in the Southern 500. He’s also won the Bristol Night race twice, the All-Star race once and now this season the Coca-Cola 600. The only thing missing is an Indianapolis win and a championship.
Is this his year?
Hamlin makes his 17th career playoff appearance. Just he, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick have done so. Nobody else has more. His 12 playoff wins rank 3rd best. Just Jimmie Johnson’s 29 trips to victory lane during the postseason and Harvick’s 16 rank higher.
Now though, can he march back to the Championship 4 at Phoenix. He has 4 of them already, which is 4th best. The only ones ahead of him each have 5 (Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick).
Another trip put him with them so long as they don’t make the final round too this November. However, among those 4 previous trips, he’s not taken home the championship in each. Is this his year to do so?
He’s made 3 Championship 4’s in the last four years. Last year he entered with the least amount of playoff points heading into the playoffs than the other 3 previously and he missed the final round by 1 measly point.
This year, he is the second seed and the second-place driver in playoff points made the final round in 4 of the 6 years too and all but one has at least made it to the Round of 8.
Is this Hamlin’s chance?
From the tape in Homestead in 2019, to Chase Elliott just being that much better in 2020 to a late caution in 2021 that took he and teammate Truex Jr. out of the top 2 spots, Hamlin has seen it all.
What has he learned from the previous 3 that he can carry with him to a triumph in November? Is there anything he looks back on as to what he could do differently?
Still, would another march to the final round and leaving Phoenix with some new hardware leave another bad taste in his mouth or should Championship 4’s now be the new gold standard?
I mean think about it. A Championship 4 appearance is about your entire season. The grind that it takes to be in the playoffs and the mental toughness that it takes to last 9 rounds of the playoffs.
A Final 4 is a championship in and of it’s own. A championship is a different standard because it’s only about 1 race and a winner take all scenario among the 4 drivers fighting for the championship that season. The previous 35 races no longer matter. You can’t take the points with you.
So does he hang his hat on the fact that he’s gotten to this many over the years?
Still, the march to this year’s playoffs varied differently than last. In 2021, he had 8 top 5 finishes in the first 9 races run. He was consistent and had fast race cars. He just wasn’t winning.
Last year, he couldn’t get a top 5 for a long while. His win in the 7th race of the season at Richmond was his first top 10 result all year and his only one through Mothers Day weekend.
That’s where his season turned. He had 5 top 5’s after including another win in the Coke 600. He thought he had won at Pocono before that win was taken away. His No. 11 Toyota started to peak and now he comes into the playoffs hoping for a near repeat of the last three with only one exception – a championship.
This year, he’s been more consistent.
Hamlin enters this year’s postseason with 4 top 3 finishes in the last six weeks.
Who’s The Sleeper?
The favorites are who they are but more people care about the Cinderella more than anything else early. They’re the fun story and cool underdog aspect with a lot of potential.
Last year, Chase Briscoe wore the slipper remarkably well as he marched all the way to the Round of 8. Ross Chastain was another one who made the Championship 4. Who’s this year’s sleeper or sleepers?
If Michael McDowell can get out of the first round, maybe it’s him. The second round has Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL. Both styles of tracks are McDowell’s best.
What about Bubba Wallace? The first round bodes well for him. Talladega in the second round does too. So does Texas.
Maybe it’s the RFK Racing duo. Again, they could be strong in Texas, they’re both strong at Talladega and Chris Buescher is among the best on road courses right now.
One of the best ones to watch however is Tyler Reddick. He’s been here before. He won at Texas last year but unfortunately was outed in Round 1. He’s good on road courses and the ROVAL could be a prime spot for a win in the second round. We know how strong he can be in Homestead and how quick the Toyota’s are in Vegas.
Reddick can have a path to the Championship 4.
My pick though, Ryan Blaney. He has 4 Round of 8 appearances in the last 6 years too and while he went winless in 2022, he did win in 2023 (Coca-cola 600) and last year, he closed the year with finishes of 3rd and 2nd the last two weeks. Furthermore, Blaney had 4 top 4 finishes over the final 7 weeks and the only reason it wasn’t 7-for-7 was self inflicted mistakes. Now, he’s back with better momentum.
Playoff Drivers By Age
You have the veterans in Kevin Harvick (47), Martin Truex Jr. (43), Denny Hamlin (42), Brad Keselowski (39), Kyle Busch (38), Michael McDowell (38), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (35).
So are the middle class of Joey Logano (33), Kyle Larson (31), Chris Buescher (30), Ross Chastain (30).
You also have the next wave waiting their turn. Ryan Blaney (29), Bubba Wallace (29), Christopher Bell (28), Tyler Reddick (27), William Byron (25).
Who wins out this Fall?
Race Review Online 