MADISON, Ill — Josef Newgarden will lead the field to green for Sunday’s Bommarito Automotive Group 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network). With this being the third to last race of the season, this is a pivotal one. Here’s what’s at stake.

• Can Newgarden Sweep The Ovals? Honda won all 5 street races, can Chevy win all 5 ovals? Josef Newgarden is hopeful to do so all by himself. He won both superspeedways (Texas, Indianapolis) as well as July’s Iowa doubleheader. Now, can he win on Sunday? The Tennessee native has dominated here at the World Wide Technology Raceway to the tune of four wins in seven tries including three in-a-row. He’s also led 484 laps too.
  • On top of that, Newgarden is THE short oval king. He’s won 6 races at Iowa, 4-for-7 at World Wide Technology Raceway and also has a 2018 win at Phoenix as well. That’s 11 of his 29 wins (37.9%) on short ovals.
  • In fact, each of his last 6 race wins have come on ovals as has 8 of his last 10 wins (80%) in general. 14 of his 29 wins (48.2%) were on ovals.
  • Newgarden’s led 111 or more laps in 9 of his last 11 Iowa starts including six wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 12 tries.
  • It helps that his main competition for the win all have some grid penalties or had a crash. Will Power crashed in practice with Marcus Ericsson. Scott McLaughlin, Scott Dixon, Alex Palou and Takuma Sato all have 9 spot grid penalties too. Newgarden is on the pole with Palou in 14th, McLaughlin in 10th and Dixon 16th at the start.
• Championship – There’s just two races left leaving here, which is why points are a big thing to watch this weekend. Alex Palou has a chance to wrap up this championship if he leaves with an advantage of 109 points up or more. He’s 101 up on Scott Dixon and 105 on Josef Newgarden. Everyone else is 144 or more points back. The thing is, he has a 9 spot grid penalty on Sunday and will roll off ??. Dixon also has a 9 spot grid penalty himself. Newgarden doesn’t.
  • Palou has finished 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 3rd, 7th over the last 12 races. That’s going to be a tough driver to top despite having finishes of 11th, 8th, 7th, 20th and 9th and having never led a lap on this track. However, in Iowa, the Spaniard has finished 11th, 14th, 6th, 13th, 8th and 3rd respectively. Progressively getting better.
  • If he replicates Iowa to this weekend, then there’s a chance he’ll be close to a title putting all the pressure on Newgarden to deliver.
  • He has remarkably stood on the podium at every single racetrack on the current series calendar aside from Gateway.
  • Gateway could be his next podium stop, as he’s already produced top-three finishes in two of the four oval races this year (Texas; Iowa Race 2). Palou’s average finishing position of 4.5 on ovals this season ranks second among all drivers (Newgarden: 1.0).
  • Palou is looking to become the fifth driver in the history of the sport to win multiple championships at 26-or-younger (Sebastien Bourdais; Sam Hornish Jr.; A.J. Foyt; Louis Meyer).
• Leaders Circle – There’s been a lot of movement in some rides with eyes now on the Leader’s Circle. Right now, spots 20-23 in the entrant standings have three new drivers among those four cars that didn’t start in those rides to begin the season.
  • The No. 20 car for ECR is 20th (+8). The No. 78 car for JHR is 21st (+5). The final car above the cutline is the No. 60 at MSR (+2). The first car out is the No. 30 at RLL (-2).
  • Conor Daly started in the 20 for ECR and will now drive the No. 30 for RLL on Sunday. Following Detroit, he was replaced by Ryan Hunter-Reay.
  • The 60 for MSR saw Simon Pagenaud drive the first 8 races but he was injured at Mid-Ohio. He’s missed the last 7 races now with Daly racing at Mid-Ohio and both Iowa races, Tom Blomqvist in Toronto and Linus Lundqvist in the last three (Nashville, Indy Road Course, Gateway).
  • So, who’s going to be standing for that pivotal bonus money when the music stops? Devlin DeFrancesco (-3) is on the outside looking in. There’s word is that he won’t be returning to the No. 29 seat at Andretti next year. Sting Ray Robb (-35) and Benjamin Pedersen (-46) are also behind. Wildly enough, only Pedersen among these rides will be back next season. JHR would like to keep Canapino but he’s not signed yet. Blomqvist will be in 1 of the MSR rides but is it the 60 or 06?
• Penske – They shared the front row in both Iowa races and went 1-2-5 in each too. They also led 492 of 500 laps (98.4%) that weekend. With how much success that they have here, can they go 1-2-3 on Sunday?
  • The last time someone went 1-2-3 in an INDYCAR race was in 2020 at Mid-Ohio when Andretti Autosport swept the podium with Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay. The last time before that was Team Penske in Sonoma in the 2017 season finale with Simon Pagenaud, Josef Newgarden and Will Power.
  • It’s a feat that’s only happened 13 times in general with Penske doing it 9 of the times. Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 11 wins in 15 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 9 of those 11 races for Penske himself.
  • They went 1-2-4 in Saturday night’s practice but saw McLaughlin spin and force Power to make an evasive action to miss him. Unfortunately, he got in the wall as a result. McLaughlin has a 9 spot grid penalty on his side for an engine change.
• Winless Streaks – Scott Dixon ended a 16 race drought at Indy. Who’s next? Alexander Rossi (18 races) hasn’t won since last year’s Gallagher Grand Prix. Pato O’Ward (19 races) hasn’t won since Iowa a little over a year ago. O’Ward finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in his 4 Gateway starts. At Iowa, he was 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd and 10th respectively. In his last 16 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 24th, 3rd and 10th respectively. Will Power (24 races) has a historical win streak going but is shut out this season. Power has won at least one race for 16 straight seasons with a win every year since 2007. Graham Rahal hasn’t won in the last 105 starts. He was close the last time out. Colton Herta (26 races) hasn’t won since his GMR Grand Prix win of a year ago either. Rinus VeeKay (41 races) last won in the 2021 GMR Grand Prix.
• Option Tire – For the first time ever, INDYCAR will roll out a Firestone alternate option on an oval, exactly what you’d see on road and street courses. With pit strategy always a play here, this is just another wrinkle to watch. If it works, then this could be the start of something great. If it doesn’t, it was worth the try.