Will 2nd Lane Come In?
INDYCAR did their job. They held 2nd lane practice on Saturday. Unfortunately, it was a bit later than expected and ran the session during night conditions. Was it never to help the second lane come in during day time conditions on Sunday?
How The Alternate Tire Will Work
Part of the reason that there’s not been a pole winner here to win the race since 2003 and also the fact that 5 out of the last 6 races at WWTR have seen the driver that led the most laps fail to win is all due to how the pit cycles have played out.
With passing being difficult on these types of tracks, the name of the game has been pit cycles and perfection on pit road. It’s the reason why despite some early race dominance here, the best cars aren’t always winning.
Now, there’s a new wrinkle – an alternate tire.
“World Wide Technology Raceway has always been an awesome track because of how different the two ends of the track are,” said Alexander Rossi. “Turns 1 and 2 are like a road course, whereas Turns 3 and 4 are your more traditional short oval corners.
“I’ve had great races here in the past, and it’s going to be an exciting weekend with the addition of running the Firestone Alternate tires for the first time on an oval. The fans who always turn out in a big way here are in for quite a treat in what will be our final oval race of the year.”
This race will mark the first time that the NTT INDYCAR SERIES will use an alternate Firestone Firehawk tire on a track other than a road or street course. The alternate tire is made from a softer compound, which improves speed on an Indy car, but has less durability than the harder compound primary Firestone Firehawk. It provides teams with a key strategic tool, but it comes with a gamble because the alternates wear out at a faster rate.
“I think it will be really interesting to see how running the alternate tire at St. Louis works out and what it does to the strategy,” said Graham Rahal. “It’s going to be a very important and interesting new development in our sport, and I think everyone is thinking the same way.”
Rossi was the first driver to slap on the new set of alternate tires during Saturday’s practice session. As far as how much of an impact that they’ll have on Sunday’s race, it’s still up in the air. Some drivers say it will make a difference. Some say otherwise.
“They didn’t seem wildly different,” Newgarden said. “That’s my intuition. Hard to say until we do it for real. We’re all going to find out together in the race.
“But I think off the limited amount of data we have, I don’t know that there’s going to be a big difference between them. With that, it’s not going to give a lot of preference I think is the answer.”
Newgarden said that the tire will be a variable though in the race, but it’s hard to say exactly how much of one that it’s going to add into the mix.
“Just based off tonight, I don’t know that it’s going to be a huge difference maker,” he continued.
“I think you got to stay open to it and make sure you’re ready for it to be a bigger factor than maybe you would realize.
“I think fuel mileage is always a big deal here. If you get into the event if there’s people on mixed strategies, there’s going to create a lot of racing opportunity. If people utilize the second lane like last year, that creates a lot of racing opportunity, too. We’ll have to see if that takes place.”
Conor Daly felt otherwise.
“I would say thankfully it wasn’t too big of a surprise,” he said. “For me, I was like, Okay, not terrifying. It’s not all of a sudden you went out and had a ton of front grip and the thing was super loose.
“I saw a few other drivers, you might miss an apex here or there to try to figure out the entry security compared to how much grip it’s got at the center. For me, there was definitely a noticeable balance change and a noticeable wear. I guess that’s the goal.
“I prefer the primary tires, I tell you that. But that’s what’s supposed to make it exciting.”
As far as how much translated over to Sunday, it’s hard telling. This session was run at night under the lights to where the race on Sunday will be under the sun.
Pit Cycles
Back in 2020, Pato O’Ward leap frogged the Penske’s for the top spot on the doubleheader opener. Scott Dixon then beat O’Ward narrowly on the final stop of the race to win.
Same thing a day later.
Josef Newgarden, barely got by O’Ward on the final stop as they leapfrogged Will Power on the cycle.
Finding the right length to go on a stint and finding clean in and out laps were the difference in gaining or losing spots on track that weekend.
Newgarden credited that 2020 win to his pit crew.
“I didn’t win the race today,” he said then. “My pit crew won it. I’m not shy to say that. I’ll take it however I can get it.”
Last year, Newgarden had a heck of a pit call by Tim Cindric. Newgarden was sitting in 6th and with rain approaching had to do something different. Then Jack Harvey got into the wall and brought out the first caution of the race on Lap 145. At that point, this was Will Power’s really to lose. The pole sitter had led 118 of the 145 laps up until that point. He was good on tires and fuel as he had just hit pit lane for his 2nd stop on Lap 124. So why pit?
Takuma Sato needed to. Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin gambled and elected to join him. Sato didn’t get the call soon enough so stayed out and had to pit a lap later. McLaughlin and Newgarden each pit on Lap 148. It helped them finish 1-3.
“It was a bit processional in the first half. Literally every car just went to fuel save. Everyone wanted to try to make the three-stop work,” Newgarden admitted after his victory last year. “I was surprised at how many people committed. Seemed like the whole field flipped to it. Wasn’t a lot happening then.
“As soon as that caution 150, 155, something like that, when it provided that opportunity to pit again, it changed things up, put people on different strategies. That made it really exciting.
“I thought that our car was able to maximize that strategy opportunity. So I’m real thankful to my team for picking that out. You can’t win this race without nailing calls like that, being good in the pits. There was a moment I thought it was slipping away from us, too. Ultimately they made the right calls and did it right and we were able to close it out.”
Power inherited the lead on Lap 149. McLaughlin and Newgarden would restart 6th and 7th. That didn’t last long. They’d end up a few laps later in the top 3. Newgarden made it there faster.
Meanwhile, O’Ward passed Power for the lead on the Lap 158 restart. 7 laps later, Newgarden forced his way past O’Ward for first. 5 laps after, his lead was 4.3902-seconds and growing.
O’Ward was being chased down by McLaughlin who had just moved into 3rd by Power. While that was occurring, Newgarden was pulling more and more away opening his lead to 6.9040-seconds by Lap 175.
McLaughlin got by O’Ward and trailed Newgarden by 6.8208-seconds on Lap 180. He was now coming. He closed that gap down to 2.8719-seconds by Lap 200 and down to 1.6372-seconds 5 laps later.
McLaughlin pulled the undercut by pitting on Lap 206. Newgarden pit one lap later on Lap 207. The undercut worked putting McLaughlin now as the leader.
Rain was inching even closer. David Malukas, Takuma Sato and Graham Rahal pit between Laps 211 and 212 handing the lead back to McLaughlin on Lap 213. After a delay, we’d go back green on Lap 224 but McLaughlin’s lead was short lived. Newgarden stormed by in Turn 3 on the restart and mark the 11th and final lead change of the 248 lap race.
What happens on Sunday? When do you pit for the alternates? When do you pit to cover the field?
How Much Will Grid Penalties Hurt?
Some heavy hitters have grid penalties. Between Scott McLaughlin, Scott Dixon, Kyle Kirkwood and Agustin Canapino, all will start 9 spots further back then they’ll qualify. With track position and pit sequences mattering, starting spots are key here. We’ve seen 9 straight Gateway winners coming from a top five starting spot and 8 of the last 9 from the top 2 rows.
How much ground can these drivers make up?
McLaughlin starts 10th, Palou 14th, Dixon 16th and Sato 17th.
Palou vs. Newgarden
There’s just two races left leaving here, which is why points are a big thing to watch this weekend. Alex Palou has a chance to wrap up this championship if he leaves with an advantage of 109 points up or more. He’s 101 up on Scott Dixon and 105 on Josef Newgarden. Everyone else is 144 or more points back.
Palou has finished 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 3rd, 7th over the last 12 races. That’s going to be a tough driver to top despite having finishes of 11th, 8th, 7th, 20th and 9th and having never led a lap on this track. However, in Iowa, the Spaniard has finished 11th, 14th, 6th, 13th, 8th and 3rd respectively. Progressively getting better.
If he replicates Iowa to this weekend, then there’s a chance he’ll be close to a title putting all the pressure on Newgarden to deliver.
Newgarden has won three straight races here and 4-for-4 on ovals this season. He’s clearly the favorite, but if Palou is back on the podium, he didn’t do enough damage.
Dixon has started 5th, 7th, 1st, 8th, 3rd, 6th, 8th and 6th respectively at WWTR and has even won (2020) but was also 15th, 2nd, 3rd, 20th, 5th, 19th and 8th in his other starts. He’s not led a lap in any of his last three races here. He’s 0-for-19 now at Iowa but has been solid too. He was sixth in both races last month.
However, a top six isn’t enough. He has to get another win. He does have 11 straight top six finishes on the season though too.
Dixon has finished in the top four in points in all but one season (2016) since 2006. Newgarden has 7 top four finishes in the last 8 years with his worst final standing being 5th in 2018. He’s finished runner-up in the last three years and four points behind Dixon for second again.
What about Newgarden?
They should just rename this place Josef Newgarden Speedway. The Tennessee native has dominated here at the World Wide Technology Raceway to the tune of four wins in seven tries including three in-a-row. He’s also led 484 laps in the process too. The question now is, can anyone stop his reign?
Newgarden is THE short oval king. He’s won 6 races at Iowa, 4-for-7 at World Wide Technology Raceway and also has a 2018 win at Phoenix as well. That’s 11 of his 29 wins (37.9%) on short ovals.
Also, each of his last 6 race wins have come on ovals as has 8 of his last 10 wins (80%) in general. 14 of his 29 wins (48.2%) were on ovals.
Newgarden’s led 111 or more laps in 9 of his last 11 Iowa starts including six wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 12 tries.
So, who can stop him? Can he do enough on Sunday to keep Palou from clinching?
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