TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

This will be the 7th year that the NTT IndyCar Series has been coming back to the World Wide Technology Raceway near St. Louis and in the shadows of the Gateway Arch. See, the series started coming to the 1.25-mile racetrack in 2001 and stayed until 2003. Unfortunately, they stopped coming after. All it took was a great management team, a wonderful promoter, a big sponsor and a phenomenal marketing plan and boom, this race has taken off.

• Pit Stops Were Crucial the last few years — With passing being difficult in 2020, that left the name of the game being pit cycles and perfection on pit road in 2020, 2021 and again in 2022. As an example, for 2020, Pato O’Ward leap frogged the Penske’s for the top spot on the Saturday race. Scott Dixon beat O’Ward narrowly on the final stop of the race to win. Same thing on Sunday. Josef Newgarden, barely got O’Ward on the final stop as they leapfrogged Will Power on the cycle. Finding the right length to go on a stint and finding clean in and out laps were the difference in gaining or losing spots on track this weekend. Newgarden said following his 2020 win that his pit crew won him the race. “I didn’t win the race today,” he said after picking up his 16th career victory that day. “My pit crew won it. I’m not shy to say that. I’ll take it however I can get it.” Last year, Newgarden had a heck of a pit call by Tim Cindric. Newgarden was sitting in 6th and with rain approaching had to do something different. Then Jack Harvey got into the wall and brought out the first caution of the race on Lap 145. At that point, this was Will Power’s really to lose. The pole sitter had led 118 of the 145 laps up until that point. He was good on tires and fuel as he had just hit pit lane for his 2nd stop on Lap 124. So why pit? Takuma Sato needed to. Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin gambled and elected to join him. Sato didn’t get the call soon enough so stayed out and had to pit a lap later. McLaughlin and Newgarden each pit on Lap 148. It helped them finish 1-3.
• Starting spots still key – With track position and pit sequences mattering, starting spots were key here. We’ve seen 9 straight Gateway winners coming from a top five starting spot and 8 of the last 9 from the top 2 rows.
• Pole winners bad luck – You would think since qualifying means a lot, the pole winner would have success. In fact, it’s the opposite in Gateway. There’s not been a pole winner here since Helio Castroneves did it in 2003. For Iowa, the pole winner is now 1-for-19.
• 4 of the last 6 Gateway races saw 2 total cautions for the race.
• Gateway 1 in 2020 produced the closest finish all season with a margin of victory being .1404-seconds. 2021 was .540-seocnds, 2022 was .471-seconds with 2019 at .040-seconds.
• Other than Josef Newgarden, we’ve had a new winner of this race each time. Only the best win at Gateway too. Names like Paul Tracy (1997), Alex Zanardi (1998), Michael Andretti (1999), Juan Pablo Montoya (2000), Al Unser Jr. (2001), Gil de Ferran (2002), Helio Castroneves (2003), Josef Newgarden (2017,2020, 2021, 2022), Will Power (2018), Takuma Sato (2019) and Scott Dixon (2020) all won on the 1.25-mile oval heading into this weekend.
• 5 out of the last 6 races at WWTR have seen the driver that led the most laps fail to win. In 2018, Scott Dixon led 145 laps but finished third. In 2019, Santino Ferrucci led 97 laps but finished fourth. In 2020, Pato O’Ward (94 laps in Race 1) and Takuma Sato (66 laps led in Race 2) finished third and ninth respectively and last year, Power led 128 of 260 laps and didn’t win.

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TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM

Iowa is the closest comparison as the only other short oval.

• Chevy has won 13 of the last 15 short oval races.
• Team Penske has won 11 of the 13 races for the Chevy camp including going 7-for-9 here.

Favorites

Team Penske

Hard to ignore the team that’s won so many times here. Josef Newgarden has 4 wins in 7 starts with 484 laps led.

Newgarden is THE short oval king. He’s won 6 races here, 4-for-7 at World Wide Technology Raceway and also has a 2018 win at Phoenix as well. That’s 11 of his 29 wins (37.9%) on short ovals.

In fact, each of his last 6 race wins have come on ovals as has 8 of his last 10 wins (80%) in general. 14 of his 29 wins (48.2%) were on ovals.

Newgarden’s led 111 or more laps in 9 of his last 11 Iowa starts including six wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 12 tries.

Will Power has 3 St. Louis poles in the last 4 races including 2 straight, but no wins to show for it. In fact, among his 4 Gateway poles, he’s 0-for-4 in taking them to victory lane. His lone win (2018), he started fourth. What’s wild is, he’s never started worse than fourth here either. His overall finishes are 20th, 1st, 22nd, 17th, 3rd, 3rd and 6th respectively. His last five Iowa finishes are second, third, second, 5th and 2nd respectively. Power has 8 top sixes in his last 10 Iowa starts. Somehow though, he’s winless in 17 Iowa tries as well and 1-for-7 here.

Scott McLaughlin was fourth and third respectively here and third, 2nd and 5th in his last three Iowa starts. McLaughlin has 13 top 5 finishes so far and among his 13 top 5 finishes in the sport, 7 of which came on ovals. 

Pato O’Ward

He’s finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in his 4 Gateway starts. At Iowa, he was 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd and 10th respectively. In his last 16 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 24th, 3rd and 10th respectively.

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Sleepers

Chip Ganassi Racing

They are 2-3-4 in oval points accumulated this season. Also, back in Iowa, they were the only Honda team to have led in all four drivers pacing the field at one point during the weekend. Alex Palou and Takuma Sato each led a lap on Saturday while Marcus Ericsson led three laps on Sunday. Scott Dixon also led a lap that final day too.

Here, Dixon has won (2020) but was also 15th, 2nd, 3rd, 20th, 5th, 19th and 8th in his other starts. He’s not led a lap in any of his last three races here. He’s also 0-for-19 now at Iowa but has been solid. On ovals this season, Dixon has finished 5th, 6th, 6th, 6th. He has 11 straight top 7 finishes on the season too.

Alex Palou has finished 11th, 8th, 7th, 20th and 9th and has never led a lap here. In Iowa, the Spaniard has finished 11th, 14th, 6th, 13th, 8th and 3rd respectively. He’s scored the second most oval points (141) this season with finishes of 3rd, 4th, 8th and 3rd. He’s had a top 8 finish in every race run this year.

Marcus Ericsson has been 16th, 5th, 23rd, 9th and 7th. He’s led three total laps here. At Iowa, he’s been solid, but not great. Ericsson was 9th, 9th, 8th, 6th, 4th and 9th. He’s finished 8th, 2nd, 4th and 9th on ovals this season and tied with Dixon (123 points) for third most points scored on ovals.

What’s crazy is the fact that they qualify really well here:

Marcus Ericsson has started 14th, 4th, 7th, 6th and 2nd respectively.

Scott Dixon has started 5th, 7th, 1st, 8th, 3rd, 6th, 8th and 6th respectively.

Alex Palou has started 11th, 14th, 21st and 5th respectively.

They just don’t finish great.

Takuma Sato may be their sleeper. He won in 2019 and has finished in the top 10 for six straight races including finishes of 9th, 1st, 2nd, 9th, 6th and 5th respectively. Now, he has a Ganassi car. His laps led in that span are 4, 61, 14, 66, 0 and 22 respectively too.

David Malukas

A Top five in Texas, a runner-up last year and sweeping Indy NXT races in 2021 puts him solidly on this list. He was 8th in Iowa 2. He has the 10th most oval points accumulated in 2023.

Callum Ilott

He’s been solid (9th, 12th, 15th, 14th) on ovals this year. He needs a strategy play to win, but who knows.

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Fades

Alexander Rossi

Has never had much success here, but now he’s in a McLaren. He’s finished 22nd, 5th, 10th and 15th with them this year.

Felix Rosenqvist

He’s never been particularly good here with finishes of 11th, 8th, 7th, 16th and 16th respectively. Started 22nd and finished 21st last year. On ovals this season, he’s finished 26th, 27th, 13th and 4th.

Andretti Autosport/Meyer Shank Racing

They showed improved speed in 2021 but the finishes lacked. They’d admit though that these are their worst tracks and don’t expect to shine this weekend. Romain Grosjean was 14th as a rookie with Coyne in 2021 and 13th last year. Ryan Hunter-Reay was also though 15th, 20th, 8th, 7th, 11th and 7th in that same car Grosjean is driving now prior. Likewise for Kyle Kirkwood who was 17th last year with Foyt. But, his car Alexander Rossi had driven was 6th, 2nd, 13th, 22nd, 14th, 17th and 25th himself. Colton Herta has finished 5th, 14th, 21st, 22nd, 18th and 11th in 6 Gateway starts. While Herta did lead 101 laps in 2021 I just don’t trust them yet. Devlin DeFrancesco qualified a respectable ninth last year and finished 12th.

Even their 2 satellite cars struggled. Helio Castroneves was 15th and Simon Pagenaud in 20th. Pagenaud previously had 4 top 8 finishes in 6 tries including 3 of which being in the top 5. Castroneves had three top four finishes previously in as many tries including a win in 2003.

At Iowa, Andretti is 0-for-12 since winning 7 of 9 to start Iowa off with. They’ve not been close here either. While Romain Grosjean was 7th and 9th as a rookie in 2022, he was 11th and 12th last month. Devlin DeFrancesco was 17th, 15th, 22nd and 21st in his four Iowa starts while Colton Herta was 24th and 12th in 2022 and 19th and 7th this year. Alexander Rossi was 13th and 18th last year with Kirkwood 7th and 11th this year.

For MSR, Pagenaud finished 23rd in both races a year ago after qualifying 21st and 16th respectively. Castroneves was 16th and 21st respectively after starting 25th and 24th himself in those same two races.

Now you get a rookie in Lundqvist in for Pagenaud too.

Rahal/Letterman/Lanigan Racing

Graham Rahal has finished 12th, 19th, 18th, 18th, 20th, 23rd and 10th here. His two laps led last year were the first he’s ever led on this track. Jack Harvey has been 11th, 13th, 10th and 24th in his four tries while Christian Lundgaard started 19th and finished there as a rookie last year.

On ovals in 2023, Rahal has finished 24th, DNQ, 28th and 20th. Harvey is 18th, 18th, 18th and 19th while Lundgaard has finished 19th, 19th, 20th and 13th.

Ed Carpenter Racing

They’ve struggled here lately. Team owner Ed Carpenter was runner-up in 2019. His finishes since? 20th, 21st, 22nd and 22nd respectively. Carpenter’s last 10 Iowa finishes are – 18th, 12th, 10th, 19th, 15th, 23rd, 25th, 17th, 24th and 23rd respectively. Rinus VeeKay was 6th and 4th as a rookie in 2020 but 21st and 26th since. He’s finished 11th, 10th, 17th and 18th on ovals this season.

Ryan Hunter-Reay (3 top 10’s in 6 starts) has never led a lap here either.

Santino Ferrucci

He’s fast on ovals, but his Gateway finishes are 4th, 16th and 10th respectively.

Rookies – Benjamin Pedersen, Agustin Canapino, Sting Ray Robb, Linus Lundqvist

No way a rookie wins in a fraternity of championship winners here.