TRACK: Daytona International Speedway (2.5-mile oval). DISTANCE: 160 Laps — STAGE 1: 35 Laps, STAGE 2: 60 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 65 Laps, MILES (400 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

• The youngest Daytona summer race winner is Justin Haley (07/07/2019 – 20 years, 2 months, 9 days); all-time track record – Trevor Bayne (02/20/2011 – 20 years, 0 months, 1 day). The oldest Daytona summer race winner is Bobby Allison (07/04/1987 – 49 years, 7 months, 1 day); all-time track record – Bobby Allison (02/14/1988 – 50 years, 5 months, 23 days).
• Five drivers have posted consecutive summer race wins at Daytona International Speedway: Fireball Roberts (1962-1963), A.J. Foyt (1964-1965), Cale Yarborough (1967-1968) David Pearson (1972 – 1974) and Tony Stewart (2005-2006). Austin Dillon is looking to become the 6th.
• NASCAR Hall of Famer David Pearson leads the series in summer race victories at Daytona with five wins (1961, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1978).
• Winning at one of NASCAR’s most prestigious tracks, Daytona International Speedway, is a major accomplishment too. So, it is not all that surprising that the top 10 series winningest drivers at Daytona are all also in the NASCAR Hall of Fame.
• Since the ‘Win and Your In’ format to the Playoffs was initiated in 2016, Erik Jones’ 2018 summer race win, William Byron in 2020 and Austin Dillon last year are the only summer race at Daytona events to catapult a driver into the postseason – the other three winners were either not eligible for the Playoffs due to not competing for a championship in the series (Haley in 2019) or the drivers had already previously won in the same season (Keselowski in 2016 and Stenhouse in 2017).
• For the Coke Zero Sugar 400, 3 of the last 6 winners have earned their first career Cup victories. 1 of the other 3 was just his second. For the Daytona 500, Denny Hamlin has won three of the last 8 years but the other five winners were Austin Dillon (2nd career win), Kurt Busch (1st career restrictor plate win), Michael McDowell (1st career Cup win), Austin Cindric (1st career Cup win) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3rd career win).
• A total of 22 drivers have posted their first NASCAR Cup Series win at Daytona; 11 of the 22 drivers posted their first win in the summer race – the most recent was the 2019 July race with winner Justin Haley and Spire Motorsports and 2020 with William Byron. Does that bode well for Saturday night for someone on the outside looking in?
• In the 10th iteration of the Playoff championship format from 2014-Present – Only two drivers outside the Playoff cutoff has raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale through points or last-minute wins.
  • From 2014 to 2018 – the drivers that won or were inside the top 16 that were expected to make the Playoffs did, no drivers raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale on points or wins.
  • In 2019, heading into the regular season finale at Indianapolis, Ryan Newman was tied with Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final transfer position to the Playoffs. Newman finished eighth in the regular season finale to Suarez’s 11^th, earning the final transfer spot into the postseason.
  • In 2020, Clint Bowyer, Matt DiBenedetto and William Byron occupied the final 3 wildcard spots. All made it in with Byron winning the race.
  • In 2021, Tyler Reddick led Austin Dillon by 25 points. He advanced too.
  • In 2022, Austin Dillon won the ‘400 and bumped Martin Truex Jr. out as a result.
• Ford dominated the last 2 February’s in taking the top 3 spots in every practice, qualifying race and the race itself in 2022 and this past February, they went 1-3-4-5-6-8-9 in Duel 1, 1-2-4-7 in Duel 2 and while they didn’t win the ‘500, they did lead 122 of 212 laps in the process.
• Ford has dominated laps led this season on tracks.
  • They led 122 of 212 in Daytona 500
  • They led 88 of 196 in Talladega
  • They led 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1 and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2
  • That’s 576 of 853 (67.5%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals.
  • However, they’re 1-for-4 this year.
• Chevy is now 3-for-4 this year on superspeedway’s and went 5-for-6 last year. However, even being 3-for-4 this year, they led the least amount of laps among the manufacturers in two of them. 
  • They led a combined 137 laps on these tracks this season but won three races. By comparison, Toyota has led 141. 
  • Chevy led 44 laps in Daytona, trailing Toyota’s 46 too. For here, they led 19 laps, Toyota led 20. In ‘Dega, they led 43 laps compared to Toyota’s 65. On Sunday night, they led 31 laps and Toyota 10.
  • Ford’s are leading, Chevy’s are winning and Toyota’s are just there.
• 3 of the last 5 Daytona winners started 17th or worst. Austin Dillon won by 21st last year and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. from 31st in February.
• Each of the last 15 Daytona winners started 5th on back.
• Only 1 Daytona pole winner has won here since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016).
• None of the last 12 points paying Daytona races were won by a series champion.
• 4 of the last 5 Coke Zero Sugar 400’s the winner led 10 or fewer laps including 2 of the 4 leading just the final lap.
• There’s been 13 different winners in the last 13 Coke Zero Sugar 400’s.

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Track Comparison

While it’s a superspeedway, it differs from Talladega. It’s .16 miles shorter and not as wide either. The most you can get is 3 wide on this track but even that gets hairy. The race looks like Talladega though in terms of a pack race with similar strategy. It’s more about handling and drafting help rather than outright speed.

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Favorites

Joey Logano (+1200)

These were among his worst tracks last year but his best this. Logano was runner-up here in February and won this past spring in Atlanta. While he was 30th in Talladega and 17th in the return Atlanta trip, his car was much better than those two results entail. He’s scored the third most points (138) on superspeedway’s this season with three Top-10 finishes in four tries and a series leading 166 laps led.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

He won the summer Daytona race in 2021 and had two wins prior to that at Talladega. Blaney has finished eighth, seventh, second and ninth in four superspeedway races this season too which helps him score the most points (148) among these tracks.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

Worth a look. Coming into this race last year, he had finished 20th or worse in seven of his last 10 Daytona starts. While he’s also 0-for-18 in the Great American Race, he should have won this past February, did win in Talladega and was 10th and fifth respectively in Atlanta. He’s scored the fifth most points (121) on superspeedway’s this season.

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Sleepers

Brad Keselowski (+1400)

You can never count him out on superspeedway’s. He was a last lap crash away from a the very least a top two finish in the 2021 Daytona 500. Keselowski also led lot of laps in the last two Daytona 500 (finished 9th, 22nd). He was in the top two with five laps left in February, was runner-up in Atlanta 1, fifth in Talladega and sixth in Atlanta 2. IF not for rain last month in Atlanta, Keselowski likely wins. He won a Duel in 2022 as well. He also won this race in July 2016. He’s led the second most laps (110) and has accumulated the second most points (143) on these tracks in 2023 too.

Chris Buescher (+1800)

He has five top 10 finishes in his last 12 Daytona starts. He was third in the 2020 Daytona 500 and ninth in the ‘400 that year. He crossed the finish line 2nd in the 2021 400 before a penalty negated that. Buescher was leading with five to go in February and finished fourth. While he was only 35th and 15th in Atlanta and 13th in Talladega, I still like his chances. He’s had the third most laps led (76) among all drivers on these tracks this season and seventh most points (117) scored too.

Daniel Suarez (+2000)

Coming into this year, Suarez has not had any Daytona success in the past with a best result of 17th. His other finishes with the exception of two had all been outside the top 20. He was seventh in the Daytona 500, ninth in Talladega and runner-up in Atlanta 2 though now too.

Michael McDowell (+2800)

He won the 2021 Daytona 500, was 5th in the 2019 Daytona 500 and 9th in the 2018 Daytona 500. Furthermore, since July 2014, the Arizona native has 7 top 10 finishes in his last 17 Daytona starts and with teams like Leavine Family Racing and Front Row Motorsports at that. He was seventh and 32nd here last year, 28th in past February, eighth and third a year ago at Talladega, 35th there this spring and fourth the last time out in Atlanta.

Erik Jones (+3500)

He won this race in 2018 and won the Clash in 2020. He also had a top 5 going in the 2022 Daytona 500 before being caught up in that late race crash. His last three superspeedway finishes are eighth, sixth and 11th respectively.

AJ Allmendinger (+4500)

He hates superspeedway racing. But, he was sixth in the Daytona 500 and third in Atlanta. He’s had the 12 most points scored on these tracks this season.

Corey LaJoie (+5500)

He’s always a threat here and needs a win.

Justin Haley (+6000)

Among the top superspeedway racers in the sport today. His only Cup win came here in Daytona a couple of years ago in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. He’s had eight career NASCAR national series victories and five of them have been at either Talladega or Daytona. That’s saying something.

Fades

Hendrick Motorsports

They’re tied with the Wood Brothers for most Daytona wins in the NASCAR Cup Series. Each have 15. Both have also won those 15 races with 7 different drivers. However, HMS’ once dominance prowess has since cooled. They won 11 races between 1995 and 2015. In fact, 7 of those 11 occurred from July 2004 and July 2015. They’ve won this race 6 times.

Since 2016 though, they have just one win. What’s bizarre is, it’s not like they’ve not shown up down here without speed. They’ve arguably had the fastest cars off the truck. It’s just that they’ve not had race day speed to correlate with race day handling. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott shared the front row of this race last year. It’s was actually the 4th straight HMS pole at Daytona and 12th in the last 16 tries on the high banked 2.5-mile Florida superspeedway. The only 4 poles they didn’t win was Greg Biffle (July 2016), Joey Logano (July 2019), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (February 2020) and Kevin Harvick (Aug. 2020).

However, 2 of the 4 weren’t won on speed. Logano’s pole in 2019 was on points. Same for Harvick in 2020 as we didn’t qualify that year.

Still, HMS failed to win with having just 1 win in the last 15 Daytona races now and that’s counting February when they had another front row sweep. Elliott led the most laps (31) last year but none of them even scored a top 10.

Elliott (+1100) was runner-up in the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400, runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500, 8th in the 2021 ‘400 and 10th in the 2021 Daytona 500. While he won two superspeedway races last year, he was 38th, 12th and 13th this year.

Larson (+2000) has never won a superspeedway race and has just 1 top 5 in 39 starts on them at that. He was 18th, 31st, 33rd and 36th on them this season.

Bowman (+2500) is always quick on superspeedways but he has just one top five finish in his career at Daytona. That was back in February’s Daytona 500. He was 14th, 13th and 26th in the other three superspeedway races.

William Byron (+1400) is the only one I’d consider looking at. He has two top two finishes in his last five Coke Zero Sugar 400 starts. His Daytona 500 starts? 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 38th and 34th respectively. He’s better here in the summer and won this past July in Atlanta. He was also seventh in Talladega.

Denny Hamlin (+1400)

He’s never won the summer Daytona race and his four superspeedway finishes this season are 17th, sixth, 17th and 14th respectively.

Ross Chastain (+2000)

The Watermelon Man has finished ninth, 13th, 23rd and 35th on these tracks this season.

Bubba Wallace (+2000)

Used to be strong on these tracks. This year, he’s finished 20th, 27th, 28th and 25th respectively.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2000)

The last 2 times for a Daytona sweep? 1982 and 2013. Buddy Baker and Jimmie Johnson accomplished those feats. I don’t see Stenhouse adding his name to that list on Saturday night. He was 17th, 15th and 10th in his other three superspeedway start this season.

Austin Dillon (+2200)

Only five drivers have posted consecutive summer race wins at Daytona International Speedway: Fireball Roberts (1962-1963), A.J. Foyt (1964-1965), Cale Yarborough (1967-1968) David Pearson (1972 – 1974) and Tony Stewart (2005-2006). Can Dillon be the 6th? He was 33rd, 29th, 38th and 21st respectively in the four superspeedway races this season.

Austin Cindric (+2200)

Yes he won the Daytona 500 last year, but on superspeedways this year, he’s finished 23rd, 11th, 26th and 12th respectively.

Aric Almirola (+2200)

All three career wins have come on superspeedway’s, however he’s only finished 21st, 39th, 22nd and 18th on them this season. Yes, he has a Duel win this past February, but those finishes leave more to be desired.

Martin Truex Jr.(+2200)

He’s 0-for-77 in drafting races if you include both Atlanta events this season and last and has scored just 6 top 5’s in those 77 starts too. He has just three top 5’s in 36 Daytona tries at that.

Tyler Reddick (+2800)

Reddick on these tracks last season: 35th, 28th, 39th, 29th, second and 28th. This season? 39th, fifth, 16th and 27th.

Ty Gibbs (+2800)

25th, ninth, 31st and 34th on like tracks this season.

Kevin Harvick (+3500)

He’s struggled in this race lately. Since 2016, his finishes in the ‘400 are 39th, 33rd, 19th, 29th, 20th, 15th and 20th respectively. He has no top 10’s in six superspeedway races last year and has been 12th, 33rd, 21st and 30th this year on them. That has him ranked 24th in points among superspeedway’s this season.

Chase Briscoe (+3500)

A top five in last year’s Daytona 500 and fourth in Talladega this spring, however, he’s finished 35th, 23th and 22nd in the other three superspeedways this season too.

Ryan Preece (+3500)

36th, 28th, 34th and 24th on superspeedway’s this season.

Todd Gilliland (+6000)

In three Truck Series Daytona starts, he’s finished 19th, 16th and 31st respectively. This season, he’s finished 27th, 15th, 19th and 16th on them.

Harrison Burton (+6500)

In four Daytona starts in the Xfinity Series, his worst finish was ninth (Aug. 2021). His other three finishes were second and third respectively during Speedweeks and fifth in Aug. 2020. However, this year’s he’s finished 26th, 34th, 36th and 28th respectively on drafting tracks.

Daytona Prop Pick: (Ford Outright Win +155 on DraftKings)

Ford dominated the last two February’s in taking the top 3 spots in every practice, qualifying race and the race itself in 2022 and this past February, they went 1-3-4-5-6-8-9 in Duel 1, 1-2-4-7 in Duel 2 and while they didn’t win the ‘500, they did lead 122 of 212 laps in the process.

Ford has dominated laps led this season on tracks. They led 122 of 212 in Daytona 500. Then, they led 88 of 196 in Talladega. In the pair of Atlanta races, they led 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1 and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2. That’s 576 of 853 (67.5%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals.