15 playoff spots are known. 1 is left. On points, it’s down to Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs and Daniel Suarez. Everyone else needs to win. How likely is it that we see a walk off winner in Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN)?

It’s not as likely as you’d might think.

In the third iteration of the Playoff championship format from 2014-Present – Only two drivers (William Byron, Austin Dillon) outside the Playoff cutoff has raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale through points or last-minute wins.

1. From 2014 to 2018, the drivers that won or were inside the top 16 in the standings that were expected to make the Playoffs did – no drivers raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale on points or wins.
2. In 2019, heading into the regular season finale at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Ryan Newman was tied with Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final transfer position to the Playoffs. Newman finished eighth in the regular season finale to Suarez’s 11th-place finish, earning the final transfer spot into the postseason.
3. In 2020, six drivers inside the Playoff cutoff (top 16) had not clinched a spot in the postseason heading into Daytona, but all six ultimately clinched their spots, led by William Byron, who became the first driver to win his way into the Playoffs by taking the victory in the regular season finale. No drivers outside the top 16 advanced into Playoffs in the regular season finale.
4. Heading into the final race of the regular season at Daytona International Speedway, the 2021 season had produced 13 different winners with two additional drivers clinching their spots on points leaving just one spot still available to make the Playoffs, and it was Richard Childress Racing teammates Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick battling it out for the final postseason position. Ultimately, Ryan Blaney won the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, but he had already clinched his spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs earlier in the season. Because of the repeat winner, the 16th and final Playoff spot was earned by points, and it was Tyler Reddick’s fifth-place finish to Austin Dillon’s 17th at Daytona that earned him enough points to advance for the first time in his career to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
5. Last year, Austin Dillon won bumping Martin Truex Jr. out.

Do we see it happen again?

Since the ‘Win and Your In’ format to the Playoffs was initiated in 2017, Erik Jones’ 2018 summer race win, William Byron’s in 2020 and Dillon’s last year are the only summer race winners at Daytona to catapult a driver into the postseason – the other three winners were either not eligible for the Playoffs due to not competing for a championship in the series (Haley in 2019) or the drivers had already previously won in the same season (Keselowski in 2016 and Stenhouse in 2017).

Still, one thing that the Daytona International Speedway is known for is unpredictable finishes that on occasion produce first-time winners in the NASCAR Cup Series. In fact, three of the last five NASCAR Cup Series summer races at Daytona International Speedway have fashioned just that – first-time winners.

A total of 23 different drivers have posted their first NASCAR Cup Series win at Daytona International Speedway, 11 of the 23 drivers posted their first win in the summer races. The most recent first-time winner at Daytona was back in February 2022 when Team Penske’s Austin Cindric became the first rookie to win the Daytona 500 season opener. The most recent first-time winner in the summer races at Daytona was the August race of 2020 with race winner William Byron earning his spot in the Playoffs.

First-Time Cup Race Winners (23) at Daytona	Start Pos.	Date	Driver’s Age
Austin Cindric	5	Sunday, February 20, 2022	23
Michael McDowell	17	Sunday, February 14, 2021	36
William Byron	6	Saturday, August 29, 2020	22
Justin Haley	34	Sunday, July 7, 2019	20
Erik Jones	29	Saturday, July 7, 2018	22
Aric Almirola	15	Sunday, July 6, 2014	30
David Ragan	5	Saturday, July 2, 2011	25
Trevor Bayne	32	Sunday, February 20, 2011	20
Greg Biffle	30	Saturday, July 5, 2003	33
Michael Waltrip	19	Sunday, February 18, 2001	37
John Andretti	3	Saturday, July 5, 1997	34
Jimmy Spencer	3	Saturday, July 2, 1994	37
Sterling Marlin	4	Sunday, February 20, 1994	36
Derrike Cope	12	Sunday, February 18, 1990	31
Greg Sacks	9	Thursday, July 4, 1985	32
Pete Hamilton	9	Sunday, February 22, 1970	27
Mario Andretti	12	Sunday, February 26, 1967	26
Sam McQuagg	4	Monday, July 4, 1966	28
Earl Balmer	6	Friday, February 25, 1966	30
A.J. Foyt	19	Saturday, July 4, 1964	29
Bobby Isaac	4	Friday, February 21, 1964	31
Tiny Lund	12	Sunday, February 24, 1963	33
Johnny Rutherford	9	Friday, February 22, 1963	24

Notable Coke Zero Sugar 400 1st time Winners

2020 – William Byron (1st career win in August’s Coke Zero Sugar 400)

2019 -Justin Haley (1st career win)

2018 – Erik Jones (1st career win)

2017 – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2nd career win)

2014 – Aric Almirola (1st career win)

2011 – David Ragan (1st career win)

For the Daytona 500, Denny Hamlin has won three of the last eight years but the other four winners were Austin Dillon (2nd career win), Kurt Busch (1st career restrictor plate win), Michael McDowell (1st career Cup win), Austin Cindric (1st career Cup win) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3rd career win).

So, can Suarez (-43), AJ Allmendinger, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Ryan Preece, Aric Almirola, Todd Gilliland, Corey LaJoie, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon win?

Suarez last won 45 starts ago. He’s 1-for-240. Allmendinger last won 73 races ago (44 attempts). He’s 2-for-419. Ironically enough, they have 3 combined wins and all are on road courses.

Also, they have done well on superspeedways this season though too with Suarez being 7th in the Daytona 500, 9th in Talladega and runner-up last month in Atlanta. Allmendinger was 6th in the Daytona 500 and 3rd in Atlanta.

Bowman’s last win came 58 races ago (50 attempts). Elliott’s last win is 30 races ago (23 attempts). Cindric’s last win came 60 starts ago. Haley’s last win came 151 races ago (94 attempts). Almirola’s last win came 75 races ago. Jones’ last win came 34 races ago. Dillon’s last win came 35 races ago. Briscoe’s last win came 57 races ago.

Preece (0-for-140), Gilliland (0-for-61), LaJoie (0-for-225), Burton (0-for-62) and Dillon (0-for-227) have never won.

Elliott’s last win came at Talladega. Cindric’s only win (1-for-68) came in last year’s Daytona 500. Dillon’s last win came in this race last year. Haley’s lone win (1-for-97) came in this race in 2019.

What’s wild is, 3 of the last 5 winners of this race needs a win to make the playoffs. The odds are stacked up against them too making it all the more likely that we see someone who’s already locked into the playoffs victorious.

William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski could find a path to victory lane on Saturday night.

The thing is, whom?

Truex is 0-for-77 in drafting races if you include both Atlanta events this season and last and has scored just 6 top 5’s in those 77 starts too. He has just three top 5’s in 36 Daytona tries at that.

Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just 1 top 5 in 39 starts on them at that. He was 18th, 31st, 33rd and 36th on them this season.

Reddick on these tracks last season: 35th, 28th, 39th, 29th, second and 28th. This season? 39th, fifth, 16th and 27th.

Hamlin has never won the summer Daytona race and his four superspeedway finishes this season are 17th, sixth, 17th and 14th respectively.

Harvick has struggled in this race lately. Since 2016, his finishes in the ‘400 are 39th, 33rd, 19th, 29th, 20th, 15th and 20th respectively. He has no top 10’s in six superspeedway races last year and has been 12th, 33rd, 21st and 30th this year on them. That has him ranked 24th in points among superspeedway’s this season.

Chastain has finished ninth, 13th, 23rd and 35th on these tracks this season.

For Stenhouse Jr. the last 2 times for a Daytona sweep? 1982 and 2013. Buddy Baker and Jimmie Johnson accomplished those feats. I don’t see Stenhouse adding his name to that list on Saturday night. He was 17th, 15th and 10th in his other three superspeedway start this season.

That cut a lot of names off that list.

Bell, Byron, Busch, Keselowski, Buescher, Blaney, Logano and McDowell all can. Notice, a lot of Ford’s.

Ford dominated the last 2 February’s in taking the top 3 spots in every practice, qualifying race (Duels) and the race itself in 2022. This past February, they went 1-3-4-5-6-8-9 in Dule 1 and 1-2-4-7 in Duel 2. they led 122 of 212 laps in this year’s Daytona 500, 88 of 196 in Talladega, 221 of 260 in Atlanta 1 and 145 of 185 in Atlanta 2. That’s 67.5% (576 of 853) laps led on superspeedways.

McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500, was 5th in the 2019 Daytona 500 and 9th in the 2018 Daytona 500. Furthermore, since July 2014, the Arizona native has 7 top 10 finishes in his last 17 Daytona starts and with teams like Leavine Family Racing and Front Row Motorsports at that. He was seventh and 32nd here last year, 28th in past February, eighth and third a year ago at Talladega, 35th there this spring and fourth the last time out in Atlanta.

You can never count Keselowski out on superspeedway’s. He was a last lap crash away from a the very least a top two finish in the 2021 Daytona 500. Keselowski also led lot of laps in the last two Daytona 500 (finished 9th, 22nd). He was in the top two with five laps left in February, was runner-up in Atlanta 1, fifth in Talladega and sixth in Atlanta 2. IF not for rain last month in Atlanta, Keselowski likely wins. He won a Duel in 2022 as well. He also won this race in July 2016. He’s led the second most laps (110) and has accumulated the second most points (143) on these tracks in 2023 too.

Buescher has five top 10 finishes in his last 12 Daytona starts. He was third in the 2020 Daytona 500 and ninth in the ‘400 that year. He crossed the finish line 2nd in the 2021 400 before a penalty negated that. Buescher was leading with five to go in February and finished fourth. While he was only 35th and 15th in Atlanta and 13th in Talladega, I still like his chances. He’s had the third most laps led (76) among all drivers on these tracks this season and seventh most points (117) scored too.

For Logano, these were among his worst tracks last year but his best this. Logano was runner-up here in February and won this past spring in Atlanta. While he was 30th in Talladega and 17th in the return Atlanta trip, his car was much better than those two results entail. He’s scored the third most points (138) on superspeedway’s this season with three Top-10 finishes in four tries and a series leading 166 laps led.

For Blaney, he won the summer Daytona race in 2021 and had two wins prior to that at Talladega. Blaney has finished eighth, seventh, second and ninth in four superspeedway races this season too which helps him score the most points (148) among these tracks.

The thing is, despite all that domination, Ford is only 1-for-4 on these tracks this year. Chevy is 3-for-4 and went 5-for-6 last year. They’ve led the least amount of laps among the 3 manufacturers on these tracks too. They led a combined 137 laps on these tracks this season but has won 3 races.

Coming into this race last year, Kyle Busch had finished 20th or worse in seven of his last 10 Daytona starts. While he’s also 0-for-18 in the Great American Race, he should have won this past February, did win in Talladega and was 10th and fifth respectively in Atlanta. He’s scored the fifth most points (121) on superspeedway’s this season.

William Byron is the only one I’d consider looking at among the HMS camp. He has two top two finishes in his last five Coke Zero Sugar 400 starts. His Daytona 500 starts? 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 38th and 34th respectively. He’s better here in the summer and won this past July in Atlanta. He was also seventh in Talladega.

Finally, Bell is holding the fort for the Toyota camp.

Toyota has won just twice in the Peachtree state (Atlanta) and have failed to reach victory lane there since 2014. They’re 2-for-the-last-18 in Talladega and 1 for the last 8 at Daytona.

Maybe Bell ends that string.

He has been quick here in the Duels 3rd in the Daytona 500, 3rd in Atlanta 1, 8th in Talladega and 23rd in Atlanta 2.