Can Josef Newgarden Pull Oval Sweep?
They should just rename this place Josef Newgarden Speedway. The Tennessee native has dominated here at the World Wide Technology Raceway to the tune of four wins in seven tries including three in-a-row. He’s also led 484 laps in the process too. The question now is, can anyone stop his reign?
Newgarden is a perfect 4-for-4 on ovals this season and eyeing a clean sweep. In fact, if you go back to this race a year ago, he’s undefeated.
On top of that, Newgarden is THE short oval king. He’s won 6 races at Iowa, 4-for-7 at World Wide Technology Raceway and also has a 2018 win at Phoenix as well. That’s 11 of his 29 wins (37.9%) on short ovals.
Also, each of his last 6 race wins have come on ovals as has 8 of his last 10 wins (80%) in general. 14 of his 29 wins (48.2%) were on ovals.
Newgarden’s led 111 or more laps in 9 of his last 11 Iowa starts including six wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 12 tries.
So, who can stop him?
It may be his teammate Scott McLaughlin who nearly did a year ago. McLaughlin was fourth and third respectively here in two starts and third, 2nd and 5th in his last three Iowa starts too.
McLaughlin also has 14 top 5 finishes so far and among his 14 top 5 finishes in the sport, 7 of which came on ovals. He was second in Texas 1 in 2021 and fourth in Gateway that season. Last year, he was second at Texas, third in Iowa 2 and third again in Gateway. This year, he was sixth at Texas and 2nd and 5th respectively in Iowa.
If not him, then Pato O’Ward has to be the next contender.
On short ovals, it’s been an O’Ward vs. Newgarden battle in general.
The duo has combined to have won 9 of the last 10 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 8 of the last 10 by himself.
On short ovals, Newgarden and O’Ward have won each of the last 7 dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 14 oval races too.
O’Ward finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in his 4 Gateway starts. At Iowa, he was 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd and 10th respectively. In his last 16 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 24th, 3rd and 10th respectively.
Past these three, I’m not so sure anyone else has much of a chance.
Chevy has won 13 of the last 15 short oval races.
Team Penske has won 11 of the 13 races for the Chevy camp including going 7-for-9 here.
Will Power I’d like to say is next, but he’s 1-for-7 here and 0-for-17 at Iowa. While he has four poles on this track, he’s never won from the top starting spot. His lone win came from fourth back in 2018.
Scott Dixon has also won (2020) but was also 15th, 2nd, 3rd, 20th, 5th, 19th and 8th in his other starts. He’s not led a lap in any of his last three races here. He’s also 0-for-19 now at Iowa.
Alex Palou has finished 11th, 8th, 7th, 20th and 9th and has never led a lap here. In Iowa, the Spaniard has finished 11th, 14th, 6th, 13th, 8th and 3rd respectively.
Marcus Ericsson has been 16th, 5th, 23rd, 9th and 7th. He’s led three total laps here. At Iowa, he’s been solid, but not great. Ericsson was 9th, 9th, 8th, 6th, 4th and 9th.
Colton Herta has finished 5th, 14th, 21st, 22nd, 18th and 11th in 6 Gateway starts. While Herta did lead 101 laps in 2021 I just don’t trust them yet.
Penske 1-2-3?
Penske shared the front row in both Iowa races and went 1-2-5 in each too. They also led 492 of 500 laps (98.4%) that weekend. With how much success that they have here, can they go 1-2-3 on Sunday?
The last time someone went 1-2-3 in an INDYCAR race was in 2020 at Mid-Ohio when Andretti Autosport swept the podium with Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay. The last time before that was Team Penske in Sonoma in the 2017 season finale with Simon Pagenaud, Josef Newgarden and Will Power.
It’s a feat that’s only happened 13 times in general with Penske doing it 9 of the times.
- 1979 Team Penske at Ontario: BUnser, Mears, MaAndretti
- 1980 Penske at Michigan: MaAndretti, BUnser, Mears
- 1994 Penske at Milwaukee: Unser Jr., Fittipaldi, Tracy
- 1994 Penske at Portland: Unser Jr., Fittipaldi, Tracy
- 1994 Penske at Mid-Ohio: Unser Jr, Tracy, Fittipaldi
- 1994 Penske at Loudon: Unser Jr, Tracy, Fittipaldi
- 1994 Penske at Nazareth: Tracy, Unser Jr., Fittipaldi
- 2004 Andretti at Nazareth: Wheldon, Kanaan, Franchitti
- 2005 Andretti at St. Pete: Wheldon, Kanaan, Franchitti, Herta
- 2011 Penske at Sonoma: Power, Castroneves, Briscoe
- 2013 Ganassi at Pocono: Dixon, Kimball, Franchitti
- 2017 Penske at Sonoma: Pagenaud, Newgarden, Power
- 2020 Andretti at Mid-Ohio: Herta, Rossi, Hunter-Reay.
- Can Penske do so on Sunday?
Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 11 wins in 15 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 9 of those 11 races for Penske himself.
Pit Cycles/Option Tire
Part of the reason that there’s not been a pole winner here to win the race since 2003 and also the fact that 5 out of the last 6 races at WWTR have seen the driver that led the most laps fail to win is all due to how the pit cycles have played out.
With passing being difficult on these types of tracks, the name of the game has been pit cycles and perfection on pit road. It’s the reason why despite some early race dominance here, the best cars aren’t always winning.
Now, there’s a new wrinkle – an alternate tire.
“World Wide Technology Raceway has always been an awesome track because of how different the two ends of the track are,” said Alexander Rossi. “Turns 1 and 2 are like a road course, whereas Turns 3 and 4 are your more traditional short oval corners.
:I’ve had great races here in the past, and it’s going to be an exciting weekend with the addition of running the Firestone Alternate tires for the first time on an oval. The fans who always turn out in a big way here are in for quite a treat in what will be our final oval race of the year.”
This race will mark the first time that the NTT INDYCAR SERIES will use an alternate Firestone Firehawk tire on a track other than a road or street course. The alternate tire is made from a softer compound, which improves speed on an Indy car, but has less durability than the harder compound primary Firestone Firehawk. It provides teams with a key strategic tool, but it comes with a gamble because the alternates wear out at a faster rate.
“I think it will be really interesting to see how running the alternate tire at St. Louis works out and what it does to the strategy,” said Graham Rahal. “It’s going to be a very important and interesting new development in our sport, and I think everyone is thinking the same way.”
“The alternate tire will be a huge question mark,” added Daly. “I don’t know what it’s going to be like, and I don’t think anyone does, but we trust Firestone and what they bring to the track. It will create a strategic chance and that’s all you can ask for. It can either go really well, or it could be a tough one, so we want to take advantage of that and see if it works in our favor. There will obviously be some practice (on it) that will be very, very important to maximize the information on that tire just to figure out how it changes the balance of the car, what it does to the race strategy and etc. It’s exciting to think about.”
Back in 2020, Pato O’Ward leap frogged the Penske’s for the top spot on the doubleheader opener. Scott Dixon then beat O’Ward narrowly on the final stop of the race to win.
Same thing a day later.
Josef Newgarden, barely got by O’Ward on the final stop as they leapfrogged Will Power on the cycle.
Finding the right length to go on a stint and finding clean in and out laps were the difference in gaining or losing spots on track that weekend.
Newgarden credited that 2020 win to his pit crew.
“I didn’t win the race today,” he said then. “My pit crew won it. I’m not shy to say that. I’ll take it however I can get it.”
Last year, Newgarden had a heck of a pit call by Tim Cindric. Newgarden was sitting in 6th and with rain approaching had to do something different. Then Jack Harvey got into the wall and brought out the first caution of the race on Lap 145. At that point, this was Will Power’s really to lose. The pole sitter had led 118 of the 145 laps up until that point. He was good on tires and fuel as he had just hit pit lane for his 2nd stop on Lap 124. So why pit?
Takuma Sato needed to. Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin gambled and elected to join him. Sato didn’t get the call soon enough so stayed out and had to pit a lap later. McLaughlin and Newgarden each pit on Lap 148. It helped them finish 1-3.
“It was a bit processional in the first half. Literally every car just went to fuel save. Everyone wanted to try to make the three-stop work,” Newgarden admitted after his victory last year. “I was surprised at how many people committed. Seemed like the whole field flipped to it. Wasn’t a lot happening then.
“As soon as that caution 150, 155, something like that, when it provided that opportunity to pit again, it changed things up, put people on different strategies. That made it really exciting.
“I thought that our car was able to maximize that strategy opportunity. So I’m real thankful to my team for picking that out. You can’t win this race without nailing calls like that, being good in the pits. There was a moment I thought it was slipping away from us, too. Ultimately they made the right calls and did it right and we were able to close it out.”
Power inherited the lead on Lap 149. McLaughlin and Newgarden would restart 6th and 7th. That didn’t last long. They’d end up a few laps later in the top 3. Newgarden made it there faster.
Meanwhile, O’Ward passed Power for the lead on the Lap 158 restart. 7 laps later, Newgarden forced his way past O’Ward for first. 5 laps after, his lead was 4.3902-seconds and growing.
O’Ward was being chased down by McLaughlin who had just moved into 3rd by Power. While that was occurring, Newgarden was pulling more and more away opening his lead to 6.9040-seconds by Lap 175.
McLaughlin got by O’Ward and trailed Newgarden by 6.8208-seconds on Lap 180. He was now coming. He closed that gap down to 2.8719-seconds by Lap 200 and down to 1.6372-seconds 5 laps later.
McLaughlin pulled the undercut by pitting on Lap 206. Newgarden pit one lap later on Lap 207. The undercut worked putting McLaughlin now as the leader.
Rain was inching even closer. David Malukas, Takuma Sato and Graham Rahal pit between Laps 211 and 212 handing the lead back to McLaughlin on Lap 213. After a delay, we’d go back green on Lap 224 but McLaughlin’s lead was short lived. Newgarden stormed by in Turn 3 on the restart and mark the 11th and final lead change of the 248 lap race.
Will Palou Wrap The Title Up
There’s just two races left leaving here, which is why points are a big thing to watch this weekend. Alex Palou has a chance to wrap up this championship if he leaves with an advantage of 109 points up or more. He’s 101 up on Scott Dixon and 105 on Josef Newgarden. Everyone else is 144 or more points back.
Palou has finished 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 3rd, 7th over the last 12 races. That’s going to be a tough driver to top despite having finishes of 11th, 8th, 7th, 20th and 9th and having never led a lap on this track. However, in Iowa, the Spaniard has finished 11th, 14th, 6th, 13th, 8th and 3rd respectively. Progressively getting better.
If he replicates Iowa to this weekend, then there’s a chance he’ll be close to a title putting all the pressure on Newgarden to deliver.
Newgarden has won three straight races here and 4-for-4 on ovals this season. He’s clearly the favorite, but if Palou is back on the podium, he didn’t do enough damage.
Dixon has started 5th, 7th, 1st, 8th, 3rd, 6th, 8th and 6th respectively at WWTR and has even won (2020) but was also 15th, 2nd, 3rd, 20th, 5th, 19th and 8th in his other starts. He’s not led a lap in any of his last three races here. He’s 0-for-19 now at Iowa but has been solid too. He was sixth in both races last month.
However, a top six isn’t enough. He has to get another win. He does have 11 straight top six finishes on the season though too.
Dixon has finished in the top four in points in all but one season (2016) since 2006. Newgarden has 7 top four finishes in the last 8 years with his worst final standing being 5th in 2018. He’s finished runner-up in the last three years and four points behind Dixon for second again.
Leaders Circle
There’s been a lot of movement in some rides with eyes now on the Leader’s Circle. Right now, spots 20-23 in the entrant standings have three new drivers among those four cars that didn’t start in those rides to begin the season.
The No. 20 car for ECR is 20th (+8). The No. 78 car for JHR is 21st (+5). The final car above the cutline is the No. 60 at MSR (+2). The first car out is the No. 30 at RLL (-2).
Conor Daly started in the 20 for ECR and will now drive the No. 30 for RLL on Sunday. Following Detroit, he was replaced by Ryan Hunter-Reay.
The 60 for MSR saw Simon Pagenaud drive the first 8 races but he was injured at Mid-Ohio. He’s missed the last 7 races now with Daly racing at Mid-Ohio and both Iowa races, Tom Blomqvist in Toronto and Linus Lundqvist in the last three (Nashville, Indy Road Course, Gateway).
So, who’s going to be standing for that pivotal bonus money when the music stops?
Devlin DeFrancesco (-3) is on the outside looking in. There’s word is that he won’t be returning to the No. 29 seat at Andretti next year. Sting Ray Robb (-35) and Benjamin Pedersen (-46) are also behind.
Wildly enough, only Pedersen among these rides will be back next season. JHR would like to keep Canapino but he’s not signed yet. Blomqvist will be in 1 of the MSR rides but is it the 60 or 06?
The final three races among these rides are crucial for who’s racing where in 2024.
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