Can Anyone New Bump Their Way Back Into The Playoffs?

The time is here. The regular season of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule will wrap up for Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN) at Daytona. To have a cut off race at the Daytona International Speedway is going to cause a lot of fireworks even with the race moving off the Fourth of July race weekend for just the fifth time ever. 1 came in the wildfires in 1998 and the others were this move to this race weekend the last four years now.

Still, we have 15 drivers now that have clinched a spot to the postseason with just 1 more spot available for the taking under the lights at the World Center of Racing.

The main question for this weekend is, will anyone outside the top 16 in the playoff standings bump their ways back in leaving Bubba Wallace out?

Last year, the gap between Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr is 25. Ironically enough, that is the same deficit Austin Dillon had behind his teammate Tyler Reddick the year prior. Everyone else needed to win.

Similar situation now.

Wallace leads Ty Gibbs by 32 points heading into this weekend’s cut race.

Since the inception of the Playoffs in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2004, Richmond Raceway hosted the regular season finale from 2004 to 2017 (14 years), and then from 2018-2019 Indianapolis Motor Speedway hosted the final regular season event. This weekend marks the third time the 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway has hosted the Cup Series regular season finale (2020-2023).

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is currently operating in its third iteration of the postseason’s points system since its inception in 2004. The first Playoff points system (from 2004 to 2009) had the top 10 to 12 drivers earn their position in the Playoffs by points only. The second version of the Playoff points system (2010 to 2013) incorporated the top 10 drivers to get in on wins/points with the addition of two extra drivers referred to as the Wild cards. The third version of the Playoff points system (2014 to Present) features drivers vying for the top 16 Playoff spots either by points or the ‘Win and You’re In’ rule. The third version of the Playoffs also instituted the elimination style format with four drivers being eliminated from the Playoffs at the conclusion of each postseason round culminating with the Championship 4 battling it out for the title in the season finale.   

Playoff Points System 1 (2004-2006 – Top 10 in on Points; 2007-2009 – Top 12 in on Points)

Four drivers have come from outside the postseason cutoff to make the Playoffs at Richmond in the first iteration of the Playoff championship format:

1. Jeremy Mayfield in 2004 made up a 55-point deficit
2. Ryan Newman in 2005 made up a one-point deficit
3. Kasey Kahne in 2006 made up a 30-point deficit
4. Brian Vickers in 2009 made up a 20-point deficit

Playoff Points System 2 (2010-2013 – Top 10 in on Wins/Points and Two Wildcards)

Seven drivers have come from outside the postseason cutoff to make the Playoffs at Richmond in the second iteration of the Playoff championship format that incorporates the Wild Card:

1. Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2010 to make the Playoffs. Biffle was 11th in points with one win; Bowyer was 12th in points with no wins heading into the regular season finale.
2. Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2011 to make the Playoffs. Keselowski was 11th in points with three wins; Hamlin was 12th in points with one win heading into the regular season finale.
3. Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2012 to make the Playoffs. Kahne was 11th in points with two wins; Gordon was 13th in points with one win heading into the regular season finale.
4. Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2013 to make the Playoffs. Kahne was 12th in points with two wins; Newman was 14th in points with one win heading into regular season finale.
5. Due to a rare instance in the final race of the regular season that resulted in penalties being issued in 2013; a 13th car (Jeff Gordon’s No. 24) was added to the Playoffs. It was the second time in the Playoff Era the number of entries was expanded.

Playoff Points System 3 (2014 – Present – Top 16 in on Wins or Points/Elimination Style)

In the third iteration of the Playoff championship format from 2014-Present – Only two drivers (William Byron, Austin Dillon) outside the Playoff cutoff has raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale through points or last-minute wins.

1. From 2014 to 2018, the drivers that won or were inside the top 16 in the standings that were expected to make the Playoffs did – no drivers raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale on points or wins.
2. In 2019, heading into the regular season finale at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Ryan Newman was tied with Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final transfer position to the Playoffs. Newman finished eighth in the regular season finale to Suarez’s 11th-place finish, earning the final transfer spot into the postseason.
3. In 2020, six drivers inside the Playoff cutoff (top 16) had not clinched a spot in the postseason heading into Daytona, but all six ultimately clinched their spots, led by William Byron, who became the first driver to win his way into the Playoffs by taking the victory in the regular season finale. No drivers outside the top 16 advanced into Playoffs in the regular season finale.
4. Heading into the final race of the regular season at Daytona International Speedway, the 2021 season had produced 13 different winners with two additional drivers clinching their spots on points leaving just one spot still available to make the Playoffs, and it was Richard Childress Racing teammates Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick battling it out for the final postseason position. Ultimately, Ryan Blaney won the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, but he had already clinched his spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs earlier in the season. Because of the repeat winner, the 16th and final Playoff spot was earned by points, and it was Tyler Reddick’s fifth-place finish to Austin Dillon’s 17th at Daytona that earned him enough points to advance for the first time in his career to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
5. Last year, Austin Dillon won bumping Martin Truex Jr. out.

Also, since the ‘Win and Your In’ format to the Playoffs was initiated in 2017, Erik Jones’ 2018 summer race win, William Byron’s in 2020 and Dillon’s last year are the only summer race winners at Daytona to catapult a driver into the postseason – the other three winners were either not eligible for the Playoffs due to not competing for a championship in the series (Haley in 2019) or the drivers had already previously won in the same season (Keselowski in 2016 and Stenhouse in 2017).

A total of 15 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona winners are active this weekend and 10 of those 15 have won the summer event at Daytona. Four of the 15 need a win this weekend to secure their spot in the Playoffs (drivers needing a win to make Playoffs bolded in chart below).

Rank	Active Daytona Race Winners	Wins	Seasons
1	Denny Hamlin	3	2020 (Feb.), 2019 (Feb.), 2016 (Feb.)
2	Kevin Harvick	2	2010 (July), 2007 (Feb.)
3	Austin Cindric	1	2022 (Feb.)
4	Ryan Blaney	1	2021 (Aug.)
5	Michael McDowell	1	2021 (Feb.)
6	William Byron	1	2020 (Aug.)
7	Justin Haley	1	2019 (July)
8	Erik Jones	1	2018 (July)
9	Austin Dillon	1	2018 (Feb.), 2022 (Aug.)
10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	1	2017 (July), 2023 (Feb.)
11	Kurt Busch	1	2017 (Feb.)
12	Brad Keselowski	1	2016 (July)
13	Joey Logano	1	2015 (Feb.)
14	Aric Almirola	1	2014 (July)
15	David Ragan	1	2011 (July)
16	Kyle Busch	1	2008 (July)

One thing Daytona International Speedway is known for is unpredictable finishes that on occasion produce first-time winners in the NASCAR Cup Series. In fact, three of the last five NASCAR Cup Series summer races at Daytona International Speedway have fashioned just that – first-time winners.

A total of 23 different drivers have posted their first NASCAR Cup Series win at Daytona International Speedway, 11 of the 23 drivers posted their first win in the summer races. The most recent first-time winner at Daytona was back in February 2022 when Team Penske’s Austin Cindric became the first rookie to win the Daytona 500 season opener. The most recent first-time winner in the summer races at Daytona was the August race of 2020 with race winner William Byron earning his spot in the Playoffs.

First-Time Cup Race Winners (23) at Daytona	Start Pos.	Date	Driver’s Age
Austin Cindric	5	Sunday, February 20, 2022	23
Michael McDowell	17	Sunday, February 14, 2021	36
William Byron	6	Saturday, August 29, 2020	22
Justin Haley	34	Sunday, July 7, 2019	20
Erik Jones	29	Saturday, July 7, 2018	22
Aric Almirola	15	Sunday, July 6, 2014	30
David Ragan	5	Saturday, July 2, 2011	25
Trevor Bayne	32	Sunday, February 20, 2011	20
Greg Biffle	30	Saturday, July 5, 2003	33
Michael Waltrip	19	Sunday, February 18, 2001	37
John Andretti	3	Saturday, July 5, 1997	34
Jimmy Spencer	3	Saturday, July 2, 1994	37
Sterling Marlin	4	Sunday, February 20, 1994	36
Derrike Cope	12	Sunday, February 18, 1990	31
Greg Sacks	9	Thursday, July 4, 1985	32
Pete Hamilton	9	Sunday, February 22, 1970	27
Mario Andretti	12	Sunday, February 26, 1967	26
Sam McQuagg	4	Monday, July 4, 1966	28
Earl Balmer	6	Friday, February 25, 1966	30
A.J. Foyt	19	Saturday, July 4, 1964	29
Bobby Isaac	4	Friday, February 21, 1964	31
Tiny Lund	12	Sunday, February 24, 1963	33
Johnny Rutherford	9	Friday, February 22, 1963	24

Notable Coke Zero Sugar 400 1st time Winners

2020 – William Byron (1st career win in August’s Coke Zero Sugar 400)

2019 -Justin Haley (1st career win)

2018 – Erik Jones (1st career win)

2017 – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2nd career win)

2014 – Aric Almirola (1st career win)

2011 – David Ragan (1st career win)

For the Daytona 500, Denny Hamlin has won three of the last eight years but the other four winners were Austin Dillon (2nd career win), Kurt Busch (1st career restrictor plate win), Michael McDowell (1st career Cup win), Austin Cindric (1st career Cup win) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3rd career win).

So, can Suarez (-43), AJ Allmendinger, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Ryan Preece, Aric Almirola, Todd Gilliland, Corey LaJoie, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon win?

Suarez last won 45 starts ago. He’s 1-for-240. Allmendinger last won 73 races ago (44 attempts). He’s 2-for-419. Ironically enough, they have 3 combined wins and all are on road courses.

Bowman’s last win came 58 races ago (50 attempts). Elliott’s last win is 30 races ago (23 attempts). Cindric’s last win came 60 starts ago. Haley’s last win came 151 races ago (94 attempts). Almirola’s last win came 75 races ago. Jones’ last win came 34 races ago. Dillon’s last win came 35 races ago. Briscoe’s last win came 57 races ago.

Preece (0-for-140), Gilliland (0-for-61), LaJoie (0-for-225), Burton (0-for-62) and Dillon (0-for-227) have never won.

Elliott’s last win came at Talladega. Cindric’s only win (1-for-68) came in last year’s Daytona 500. Dillon’s last win came in this race last year. Haley’s lone win (1-for-97) came in this race in 2019.

What’s wild is, 3 of the last 5 winners of this race needs a win to make the playoffs.

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Should Condensed Weekend Remain?

Like we saw in all superspeedway races with the exception of the Daytona 500, this weekend’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 is another shortened race weekend. No practice will occur as the drivers will just qualify on Friday evening then race on Saturday

While I get the notion that a lot of fans don’t favor less track time, it’s nearly unanimous in the garage that these type of race weekends on superspeedway’s need to stay.

These guys don’t know how to control themselves in the draft in practice. More times than not, there’d always end up being a practice crash. Instead, crew chiefs had their drivers focus on single car runs or run a few laps with teammates in a tow. Others never even came out of the garage.

So, what’s the point of wasting everyone’s time with practice on these tracks? The only reason that they do so in Daytona back in February is because it’s the season opener and also the biggest race. Still, they qualified and ran the Duels without any practice prior.

Friday and Saturday’s sessions were more of a formality than anything. Over half of the field elected to skip them.

Which is why I’m okay with just showing up to qualify and race for this summer event. In fact, I think you could even make it a little simpler and just qualify an hour or two before the race on Saturday night and make this a one-day show. Fans can still come Friday night to camp and stay for the Xfinity Series show and already be in the campgrounds for the Cup race on Saturday night.

The teams can save tons of money and just fly in on race day.

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Is There Still An Art To Superspeedway Racing?

One thing that’s been a noticeable trend at the annual Daytona and Talladega stops now is that most of the top drivers in the sport struggle on these tracks.

Daytona hasn’t had a NASCAR Cup Series champion win there since the 2017 Daytona 500 (Kurt Busch). In fact, the only driver to have won a championship in this playoff era that we’re in now (since 2014) and a race at Daytona since 2011 even is Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson.

That’s it.

Kevin Harvick won the 2014 Cup Series title but since that season, he’s 0-for-38 at Daytona/Talladega. He does have 3 wins but that came in 89 starts.

Kyle Busch won the 2015 and 2019 Cup titles. Since 2014, he’s also 1-for-38.

Jimmie Johnson took home the championship in 2016. He’s not won in that same time frame with his last Daytona win coming in 2013 and Talladega in 2011.

Martin Truex Jr. (2017 champion) has never won a superspeedway race. He’s 0-for-73 with only 6 career top 5’s in those races.

Joey Logano (2018 champion) probably has the most success with a 2015 Daytona 500 win and 3 Talladega victories. However, his last win came in the spring race of 2018 too.

Chase Elliott (2020 champion) has 2 wins (spring Talladega in 2019, Fall Talladega in 2022) while Kyle Larson (2021 champion) is like Truex in that he’s winless in 35 career starts on them himself with just 1 top 5 finish.

As you can see, the champions of the sport aren’t thriving on these tracks which in turn has opened the door for others to steal wins away.

Which leads to the question, is there an art to superspeedway racing anymore? In the past, you’d see names like Earnhardt, Gordon, Irvan, Jarrett, Marlin and a handful of others win these races. They made it look almost easy on how dominant they were.

Some say Earnhardt could see the air which is why he was so good as maneuvering his way through the draft.

But now-a-days, it’s almost like it’s a lottery to win one of these races. There’s a higher chance of getting caught up in a crash than there is winning, let alone even finishing a race at these places.

Is it a byproduct of all these big named drivers racing up front then all crashing together? That’s part of it. But they know the rules going in and they know that you have to be there in the end to win it.

“Do we need more superspeedways?” Joey Logano has asked before. “Is that the type of racing fans want to see? Because when you look at the way that people have finished up front in these superspeedways lately, (they) are the ones that are riding around in the back.

“Do you believe that you should be rewarded for not working? Because that’s what they’re doing. They’re riding around in the back not working, not going up there to put a good race on. They’re riding around in the back and capitalizing on other people’s misfortune for racing up front trying to win. I don’t think it’s right. That’s not racing. I can’t get behind that.”

Did stage points on the line affect it?

Could be. It would make a lot of sense because up until that point, it was Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and a few others winning these races. Since really 2016 on, outside of Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney, the names you’re seeing winning these races are Justin Haley, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, William Byron, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace.

Are they just playing the game better than the rest? Are they more skilled even? Or is this just a product now that when we go to these tracks it takes way more luck than it does skill?

“As a race car driver, that’s what you want,” said Daniel Suarez. “You want that ability to run around and to show your skills. In superspeedways … everyone is bumping, everyone is pushing, and you can not show your skills as much.”

In the past, no one would argue that restrictor plate racing was an art. It was like dirt racing. The best always had an advantage. Now, it’s almost like it’s so even that there is no advantage when coming here. It’s the same opportunity for everyone.

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Is The Coke Zero Sugar 400 Best Placed In August Still?

This is the fourth straight year that the Coke Zero Sugar 400 will wrap up the Cup Series regular season. However, is this the best place for this race on the schedule? I get the notion on why it’s here. NASCAR wants to end the regular season on a place to where anyone in the field can win. It makes sense to keep the attention on the playoff field all the way through. It builds excitement and this weekend has a lot of it surrounding the race.

In saying that, I still don’t like Daytona’s summer race here in this spot. I never have. It doesn’t feel right. So what can you do then?

The Daytona 500 will never move from February. As it shouldn’t. NASCAR isn’t going to move Talladega from the playoffs. As they shouldn’t. With each track having 2 dates annually how do you place them on the calendar?

Talladega’s 1st race has to be far enough apart from the Fall race to not make NASCAR want to end the regular season there. That leaves this race to fill this race weekend.

However, now that Atlanta is a drafting track, does it open the door to maybe replace Daytona in this spot and allow Daytona to move back to the 4th of July weekend?

It’s no secret, the best place selfishly is for the ‘400 to always be run on the Fourth of July weekend. It just feels right. It always has. This race on this weekend just feels awkward. It doesn’t feel right.

I get the notion of it. It works. But it has just seemed off. I feel like moving the ‘400 back to it’s traditional date would spark a rise in attendance too so why not find something else to take Daytona’s place in this date and find a path to get Daytona back to where it belongs.

The 4th is a major date on the schedule and Road America didn’t deliver the ratings that Daytona could there. Atlanta’s summer race worked this past year and one that I feel like would be a phenomenal cut race.

Atlanta being a night race to wrap up the regular season would be ideal because it’s not as pot luck as Daytona would be but a hybrid instead. The drivers may favor that better instead of what Daytona offers.

A lot of people never felt like having a Speedway race set the final playoff spot was fair. I get the notion you want to make it eligible for everyone to still have a shot, but isn’t Atlanta the most level playing field for both sides?

You can Speedway race but also get some separation. You had Spire last year running for a win and a championship front runner still reaching victory lane the last two summer races. We saw a pair of Trackhouse cars, a Petty Ware car, a Spire car and Kaulig car in the top 10 at the end of the July race of a year ago. It’s a perfect fit to move Atlanta to the regular season finale and Daytona back to July.

You boost Daytona, boost Atlanta and help TV in the process…

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What’s The Strategy?

This is an interesting race to where it’s almost NASCAR’s version of a Home Run Derby. You have 90% of the field swinging for the fence not giving a damn about points. You though do have a select few drivers racing for points though hopeful to points their way into the postseason.

Which makes me wonder what the strategy will be?

Among those that don’t need to win, they can position themselves to do so at the end. Which means that for most, they can position themselves out of the draft if need be.

However, in saying that, this car has proven that it’s not easy to pass your way forward on these tracks either. Track position very much is a thing. So what risks are they willing to take?

For those needing points, you have to go for stage points, but how much do you risk going for stage points and getting caught up in a crash? If you don’t see the finish, you may not see the playoffs. But, if you don’t get stage points, you may not see the playoffs either.

Then for the ending, how much do you push and help a driver in front that is also needing a win? If you don’t push, you may get stuck where you’re at, but if you do push, you may risk not getting by either.