Most people are locked in to the 16th and final playoff spot as something to watch for during Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN). However, there’s actually 3 different playoff battles to watch though.
Yes you have the cutline between Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs and Daniel Suarez. If someone else that’s already won a race this season wins between William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Michael McDowell or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. or even Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski find victory lane in Daytona, that final spot is down to these two in driver points.
32 points separate Wallace and Gibbs with 43 between Wallace and Suarez.
The rest (AJ Allmendinger, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Ryan Preece, Aric Almirola, Todd Gilliland, Corey LaJoie, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon) just have to win.
Simple right?
Well, there’s more races to watch.
Owners Race
The 16th and final spot in the owners field is different than the drivers. That’s because Chase Elliott’s No. 9 Chevrolet has raced all season and has him 14th in points on that side. As a result, he holds the 16th and final spot by 30 over Bubba Wallace. It’s down to just these two on points on this side.
Owners is just like drivers in a sense that if the ride wins, it’s playoff bound. So, the same cars are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs that have won in both. The wildcard is different in which Brad Keselowski (+107), Kevin Harvick (+103) and Elliott (+30) are in.
Bubba Wallace’s No. 23 Toyota is 30 points out in owners but 32 points up in the drivers standings. Ty Gibbs is 62 points out of the owners race.
Which means Wallace does want to go for the win on Saturday night because it would not only put him in the drivers championship, but the 23 car in the owners too and if you ask Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan, I bet they’d tell you how big of a deal that would be.
So while Wallace has to take it somewhat easy to point his way into the drivers playoffs, it does him no good on both if someone below him in points wins because they’d take a driver and owner spot into the playoffs.
But if he wins, he gets both.
Last season, it was a wild scenario for which Ryan Blaney made the drivers playoffs but not the owners. That’s because Kurt Busch, while hopping out of his ride for the postseason, the 23XI Racing team elected to keep the 45 car in the owners race.
Why not? Most people don’t understand this but the owners standings is where the money is made. The drivers get all the attention and glory but the owners points is a truly underrated thing that remarkably slips under the cracks. I have no clue why but ask most owners and they’d tell you while the drivers title is great, an owners championship is even better.
Most years it lines up.
Bonus money is on the line in the owners race which is why it’s legitimately a thing to watch. Last year was brought to the surface because of Busch and the 45 ride and this year, it could occur again.
Regular Season Crown
Denny Hamlin on Sunday kept his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate of Martin Truex Jr. from celebrating a regular season crown early. That’s because he made up 21 points on him in Watkins Glen via his runner-up finish in the Go Bowling at The Glen. It was all predicated by netting 17 stage points (3rd, 2nd) and his fourth top three finish in the last five weeks to go from a deficit of 60 to -39 heading into Daytona on Saturday night.
“Yeah, I’m happy with my day,” Hamlin said. “It takes me a while to get going, and with McDowell there at the beginning, like he’s just ready and he’s on kill, and I’m kind of working my way into it. I just lost the lead because I looked at the 24’s back bumper the rest of the day.
“It was a fun race. Appreciate the whole Mavis guys here and Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing for giving me a good car and giving me the tools I need to get better.”
Hamlin joked that if he can get NASCAR to give him his 25 point penalty back from comments about the Ross Chastain incident back in Phoenix on his podcast, things would be even more interesting.
“I mean, it’s doable. You’ve got to have things go your way, but yeah, if we can talk NASCAR into those 25 points they took away earlier in the season, we’d really make it interesting,” he joked.
That’s because Truex Jr. minimized the damage. Despite qualifying 19th and finishing 27th and 15th in the pair of stages, he was helped by that Chase Elliott caution on Lap 55. He had just pit on Lap 52 and that allowed him to cycle to the top 10.
He’d stay there and come away with a sixth place finish for his 10th top 7 in the last 12 races including six straight.
If those points for Hamlin came back, the gap between the two would be 14…
The thing is, Hamlin is great on superspeedways to where Truex is 0-for-77 in drafting races if you include both Atlanta events this season and last and has scored just 6 top 5’s in those 77 starts too. He has just three top 5’s in 36 Daytona tries at that.
Top 10 Positioning
Another underrated thing to watch is the fight within the top 10 of the regular season standings. You get bonus points for finishing there with 15 for 1st, 10 for 2nd, 8 for 3rd, 7 for 4th, 6 for 5th, 5 for 6th, 4 for 7th, 3 for 8th, 2 for 9th and 1 for 10th.
With playoffs coming down to the slimmest of margins, getting an extra spot or 2 in the top 10 is big.
Right now, the top 2 of Truex and Hamlin seem set. William Byron is 3rd but 37 points back of Hamlin. It’s possible he catches him but slim.
Christopher Bell is 33 points back of Byron for third but 31 points up on Kyle Larson for fourth. Larson leads Brad Keselowski for 5th by 24. Keselowski is only two points ahead of Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain for 6th.
In fact, that 6th-10th battle is separated by 4 points as Brad Keselowski has 697, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain 695, Ryan Blaney 694 and Kevin Harvick 693.
There’s a lot at stake there.
But, so is the hunt to get into the top 10. Kyle Busch (688 points) is only 5 points out. Tyler Reddick is just 10 back. Joey Logano is 27 back.
Which is why this race is something to watch too.
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