Denny Hamlin will lead the field to green for Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN). Can he stay there?

• Starting Position – 11 of the last 12 winners have started in the top 3 Rows including the last 5 from the top 2 Rows. Great news for Hamlin, William Byron, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson and AJ Allmendinger. 16 of the last 18 have started in the top 10. Starting positions on road courses this season: 2nd (COTA), 8^th (Sonoma), 3rd (Chicago), 1^st (Indy).
• Clean Race? – Indy was miraculously clean last week with just 1 caution for 3 laps. We saw 77 straight laps in the end to the checkered. How will Watkins Glen look on Sunday? It’s been clean in this stage era. Since 2017, there’s been 3, 4, 4, 4, 5 cautions in this race. That’s 20 combined cautions with 10 of those being for stage breaks. Last year was the first time since 2016 that we had a caution inside of 20 to go. The first two stages last year went caution free. Since 2017, we’ve had just five natural cautions here.
• Ford’s Win Streak – Coming into Richmond, Ford has 2 wins in the first 21 races to the season. They’ve now won three races in-a-row and have done so across three different forms of racetracks at that. A short track (Richmond), a speed track (Michigan) and now a Road Course (Indianapolis). Can they win again? Ford had been abysmal on road course tracks in 2023. They led four laps in COTA, one in Sonoma, none in Chicago, but now 54 at Indy. Their last win on a road course entering was Charlotte ROVAL in 2018 and their last win at Watkins Glen came back in 2015 as that’s their lone since in the last nine tries here. Can the pick up a 4th straight win though? They have just 1 driver coming from a top 10 starting spot.
• Points – Lets face it, Sunday is a must-win for Alex Bowman (stats 18th) and Chase Elliott (starts 15th). Whomever doesn’t win is facing a must win at Daytona. If neither wins this weekend, then Hendrick Motorsports knows that at least one of them won’t be in the playoffs now too. Both are too far out to make the playoffs on points as they each are -80. Even Ty Gibbs (-49) is likely in a must-win too. He’s accumulated 15 stage points since Pocono which is why despite 1 top 10 finish in that span, he does have those and four top 15’s too. AJ Allmendinger (starting 6th) fell from -17 after Pocono to now -87. He has 9 stage points total in this span and finishes of 19th 17th, 27th, 26th, 26th over the last 5 races. Allmendinger has the capability to win again here. He was runner-up last year and won in 2014. He also has three runner-up finishes (2018, 2021, 2022) in his last four NXS starts here too. My only concern is that he lacked speed in Indy and it’s tough to just gain it one week later. Allmendinger has only scored 60 points on road races this season good enough for 19th. It’s an all-in for him though. Austin Cindric (-105) is a road racing ace and has two straight Top-3 finishes in the Xfinity Series here too including a 2019 win. I’m wary though about being 15th at Indy and not having a single Top-5 finish all season too. It’s really down to Bubba Wallace (+28) vs. Daniel Suarez (-28) for that final wildcard spot on points. Wallace has finished 37th, 17th, 31st and 18th on road courses this season and being 35th here last year puts him low on my list of winners this weekend. Suarez won in Sonoma last year, was fifth here and coming off of a pole and third place run at Indy last Sunday. Wallace has accumulated 22 stage points in the opening stage (7th, 2nd,2nd, No points) in the last four races and 16 stage points in Stage 2 (9th, 4th, 4th, no points). It’s just no stage points and being 18th in Indy while Suarez has totaled 31 stage points over the last two races and two straight top sixes has him in a position to make up some of that gap. He erased 29 points in Michigan so there’s no reason he can’t do so at Watkins Glen.
• Keselowski vs. Harvick – These two are hopeful that there’s not a new winner on Sunday because if not, each will clinch a spot into the postseason. Right now, Harvick is +145 and Keselowski +143. No one is catching either points wise over the next two weeks. However, if someone below them wins, then 1 of which is on the bubble and the other 1 spot ahead going to Daytona. Which is why that 2 point gap between them is so big this weekend because you don’t want to go to Daytona 16th among 16 drivers in the playoff grid. If someone else new wins in Daytona, then 1 of them is out. In saying that, if someone above them wins this weekend, then both are in because even if someone new wins at Daytona, that’s 14 winners leaving 2 wildcard spots to the postseason. Which is why both have a lot at stake on Sunday between them.

• Regular Season Title – Right now, Martin Truex Jr. leads teammate Denny Hamlin by 60 points. William Byron is 104 points out which means Joe Gibbs Racing will go 1-2. But, in what order?
  • Truex has 9 top 7 finishes in the last 11 races. Trends say he’ll win on Sunday alternating finishes between 3rd, 7th, 2nd, 7th…1st? He had five straight Top-10 finishes in Watkins Glen including four of which in the top three, come to an end with a 23rd place run last year. They’re improved this season on road courses.
  • Hamlin had four top four finishes in his last six Watkins Glen starts but on road courses in 2022, 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively. He does have two poles on these tracks in 2023, but his finishes read 16th, 36th, 11th and 19th respectively.
  • Byron meanwhile is struggling. He’s finished 5th, 14th, 13th and 14th this year on these tracks. 22nd here a year ago too. Byron only has one Top-5 finish in the last 10 weeks at that.
  • With Hamlin leading Byron by 46, he’s in the drivers seat for second. Can he catch Truex? He’s after playoff points via stage wins to close that gap since it’s likely Truex gets the regular season crown and 15 playoff points that go with it. Hamlin can finish 2nd and that gets 10 playoff points. That 5 point gap between 1st and 2nd he’s hopeful to make up in stage wins like he did at Indy.
• Larson Three-Peat: The two-time defending Watkins Glen winner is back in hopes of being just the third driver to ever win three in-a-row here. The last driver to accomplish this feat was Jeff Gordon (1997-1999). Mark Martin is the only other driver to win three straight here as he did so in 1993, 1994 and 1995.
  • Larson’s last four Watkins Glen finishes are sixth, eighth, first and first respectively. He’s also finished 14th, eighth, fourth and eighth respectively on road courses in 2023 and has seven Top-10 finishes over the last 10 races as well.
• Non New Winners – There’s also a chance we don’t see a new winner on Sunday. Martin Truex Jr. (stats above), Kyle Larson (stats above), Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick and Michael McDowell could all easily win too.
  • Busch had five top seven results in his last seven Watkins Glen tries to go along with finishes of second, second, fifth and 36th on road course races this season too. He had a quick car at Indy before a mechanical issues while running solidly inside the Top-10.
  • Reddick – won at both Road America and Indy last year and COTA this year. However, he’s only finished 33rd, 28th and fourth on the other three road courses this season to go along with seventh here a year ago too. I do like that he’s starting to find ground again. He has three Top-6 finish in the last five weeks and if not for pit road, he’d have four. Can they execute? The speed is there. He’s tied for the third most points (103) and third most laps led (41) on road courses in 2023.
  • McDowell – won at Road America in the Xfinity Series and was 12th, seventh, seventh and first in four road races run this season. A true road racer by nature, McDowell has had four Top-6’s in six road course races run last season including being sixth here. Can he really win two straight? We asked that about Buescher two weeks ago too. No one has as many points accumulated (131) on road courses this season than McDowell.
  • Buescher – has been a vastly improved road racer including eighth, fourth, 10th and 11th respectively on these courses this season. His last five road course finishes last year read: second (Sonoma), sixth (Road America), 10th (Indianapolis), ninth (Watkins Glen) and sixth (Charlotte ROVAL). That’s nine straight Top-11’s and fifth most points scored (98) on them this season too.